If not for Marvin Harrison Jr., we’d probably be talking about Malik Nabers as a generational prospect. He’s that good. However, he’s also still a rookie. Should fantasy football managers be willing to pay up to draft the New York Giants‘ new WR1?
Should You Select Malik Nabers at His Current ADP?
PPR Industry Consensus ADP: 52nd Overall (WR24)
- Rookie Impact: Malik Nabers enters the NFL as one of the most highly touted wide receiver prospects, although he’s still a rookie. Historically, rookies can provide tremendous value, especially in the second half of the season, making Nabers a potential game-changer for fantasy managers.
- College Success: Nabers posted impressive numbers at LSU, including 1,569 yards and 14 touchdowns as a junior. He brings a strong track record to the Giants, who have lacked a true WR1 for several years.
- 2024 Outlook: Nabers steps into a wide-open WR room in New York, where he could quickly become the top target. With minimal competition for targets, there’s a realistic chance Nabers could push for a 30% target share as a rookie, giving him a strong foundation for fantasy success.
- ADP Value: Nabers is currently being drafted as the WR24, 52nd overall. While this might seem low for a rookie with his potential, it reflects the uncertainty surrounding his situation, including the Giants’ quarterback play.
- Risk vs. Reward: Drafting Nabers comes down to your fantasy philosophy. He offers a high ceiling but also carries risk, especially given the Giants’ unstable quarterback situation. Nabers could be a top-five talent, but his performance will largely depend on the quality of QB play he receives.
- Final Verdict: If you’re willing to embrace uncertainty and target young, high-upside players, Nabers is a compelling choice at his current ADP. He’s ranked as my WR22, and I’m eager to draft him if the opportunity arises.
PFN Consensus PPR Fantasy Ranking for Malik Nabers
Note that these rankings are the PFN Consensus Rankings and may not fully match my analysis.
47) David Montgomery, RB | Detroit Lions
48) Aaron Jones, RB | Minnesota Vikings
49) Zay Flowers, WR | Baltimore Ravens
50) Tee Higgins, WR | Cincinnati Bengals
51) D’Andre Swift, RB | Chicago Bears
52) Malik Nabers, WR | New York Giants
53) Stefon Diggs, WR | Houston Texans
54) Trey McBride, TE | Arizona Cardinals
55) DK Metcalf, WR | Seattle Seahawks
56) Terry McLaurin, WR | Washington Commanders
57) Rashee Rice, WR | Kansas City Chiefs
Malik Nabers’ Fantasy Profile for the 2024 Fantasy Season
In modern fantasy football, it’s exceedingly difficult to find edges. The average fantasy manager is so much smarter than they were a decade ago. Everyone knows or is capable of learning about every player. The one area where edges still remain, though, is with rookies.
It’s always a challenge to convince yourself to spend precious fantasy draft capital on players who have never played an NFL snap. However, rookies are historically some of the best values you can find, especially during the second half of the season.
Malik Nabers runs a 4.35 40-yard dash at LSU’s Pro Day. 💨
Jayden Daniels gasses him up at the end. 🔥#GeauxTigers | #NFLDraft
— Pro Football Network (@PFN365) March 27, 2024
If you see a fantasy analyst tell you to avoid rookies or say things like, “We can’t trust these players yet,” run far away. Every year, multiple rookies are league winners, and even more provide positive returns on investment.
Nabers’ best season obviously isn’t going to be this one, but that doesn’t mean he can’t be an incredibly productive fantasy asset.
He is everything we want in a WR prospect. He posted 1,000 yards receiving as a sophomore at LSU and 1,569 yards with 14 touchdowns as a junior. The last time the Giants drafted an LSU wide receiver in the first round was exactly a decade ago. That worked out pretty well, I’d say.
Is Nabers a Good Value in Fantasy Drafts?
As is the theme of this season, wide receiver value is inflated while running back value is depressed. Nabers is being drafted as the WR24, No. 52 overall. That does seem a bit low. In my experiences conducting mock drafts, Nabers has never made it out of the fourth round.
I love Nabers and want to draft him. However, his fantasy profile is not nearly as flawless as Harrison’s is this season.
The opportunity should be there in spades. Nabers steps into a wide receiver room that does not possess a single starter-worthy player. The Giants have a bunch of rotational WR3s and 4s being pushed up the depth chart.
There’s a very real chance Nabers can push a 30% target share as a rookie. Since volume is king, it will be very difficult for Nabers to fail.
On the flip side, what is Nabers’ ceiling? Talent-wise, he can be a top-five wide receiver. However, that’s probably not in the cards with Daniel Jones — and, eventually, Drew Lock when Jones inevitably gets benched — at quarterback.
Whether you take the shot on Nabers comes down to your fantasy philosophy. Nabers is going above some very established guys. However, they’re mostly guys with known ceilings, guys who don’t necessarily have that WR1 upside. The other WRs are safer picks.
Nabers is the unknown. He could certainly flop. We’ve seen what poor quarterback play and offensive situations can do to talented rookies like Drake London, Garrett Wilson, and Jordan Addison post-Kirk Cousins. Nabers could suffer a similar fate and end up being a middling WR3.
On the other hand, Nabers could see competent QB play, enough to allow his talent to shine through, and exceed his ADP.
I like rookies. I like young players. I like embracing uncertainty. Nabers is my WR22, and I definitely want to draft him if I can.