We often see third-year running backs take significant leaps. Instead, Rhamondre Stevenson took a step back. With the New England Patriots’ offense lacking playmakers, can Stevenson end up being a value in fantasy football this season?
Should You Select Rhamondre Stevenson at His Current ADP?
PPR Industry Consensus ADP: 66th Overall (RB23)
- 2023 Recap: Rhamondre Stevenson had a disappointing 2023 season after being drafted as a third-round pick in many leagues. Despite expectations of an increased role with Damien Harris gone, Stevenson’s production declined, averaging just 4.0 yards per carry and 12.8% target share.
- Decline in Efficiency: Stevenson’s efficiency took a significant hit last season. His yards per carry dropped from 5.0 in 2022 to 4.0, and his evaded tackles per touch rate fell from 40.5% to 18%. These declines contributed to his middling RB3 finish.
- 2024 Outlook: The Patriots’ offense remains a concern, with a new quarterback situation and Antonio Gibson potentially cutting into Stevenson’s receiving work. The addition of a more mobile QB in Drake Maye could further reduce Stevenson’s opportunities in the passing game.
- ADP Value: Stevenson is currently being drafted as the RB23, 66th overall. While his ADP might seem appealing relative to other positions, there are more enticing running back options available at a similar price, making Stevenson a risky pick.
- Final Verdict: Stevenson has the talent to finish as a top-12 RB, but his situation and declining efficiency make him a risky choice at his current ADP. With better options available, fantasy managers may want to consider other running backs in this range.
PFN Consensus PPR Fantasy Ranking for Rhamondre Stevenson
Note that these rankings are the PFN Consensus Rankings and may not fully match my analysis.
59) Christian Kirk, WR | Jacksonville Jaguars
60) James Conner, RB | Arizona Cardinals
61) Anthony Richardson, QB | Indianapolis Colts
62) Zack Moss, RB | Cincinnati Bengals
63) Najee Harris, RB | Pittsburgh Steelers
64) Rhamondre Stevenson, RB | New England Patriots
65) Jaylen Warren, RB | Pittsburgh Steelers
66) C.J. Stroud, QB | Houston Texans
67) Dalton Kincaid, TE | Buffalo Bills
68) Keenan Allen, WR | Chicago Bears
69) Joe Burrow, QB | Cincinnati Bengals
Rhamondre Stevenson’s Fantasy Profile for the 2024 Fantasy Season
Stevenson was a value in fantasy until we started having to pay a premium for his services. He surprised as a fourth-round rookie in 2021. Stevenson finished as an RB1 in 2022, averaging 14.7 fantasy points per game.
Then, last season, Stevenson came with a third-round price tag. Naturally, he disappointed.
Stevenson was supposed to be even better. For the previous two seasons, he could never break free of Damien Harris. Last season, Harris was gone, replaced by the aging Ezekiel Elliott.
Perhaps the issue was the crux of the analysis, to begin with. Stevenson didn’t really need volume as a whole. What he needed was work in the passing game.
Rhamondre Stevenson turns the screen into a huge gain! #ForeverNE
📺: #NEvsMIN on NBC
📱: Stream on NFL+ https://t.co/TePpxXTdES pic.twitter.com/IpXSAckEx9— NFL (@NFL) November 25, 2022
Two years ago, Stevenson saw a 17.4% target share. Last season, that fell to 12.8%. That’s still great for a running back. However, Stevenson’s efficiency on the ground cratered. Without the receiving work to fall back on, he became a middling RB3.
Stevenson went from averaging 5.0 yards per carry to 4.0 yards per carry. Undoubtedly, the Patriots’ league-worst offense was a big part of this, but Stevenson had just three carries all season that went for 15+ yards.
Stevenson also saw his evaded-tackles-per-touch-rate drop from 40.5% in 2022 to 18% in 2023, and his yards per touch went from 5.2 to 4.4. Stevenson’s yards created per touch decreased from 3.43 to 3.15. That may not seem like much, but that took it from sixth in the league to 38th.
Is Stevenson a Good Value in Fantasy Drafts?
Stevenson’s situation in 2024 looks eerily similar to last year. Elliott is gone, but Antonio Gibson is replacing him. The latter is a former collegiate receiver and far more equipped for a specific passing-down role than Elliott was. Fantasy managers should be very concerned that Stevenson won’t even be able to match his 12.8% target share from last season.
Furthermore, the QB situation is completely different. Mac Jones has been replaced by Drake Maye. The rookie will probably open the season behind Jacoby Brissett. However, this team is not going to win many games. It’s only a matter of time before the rookie gets his chance, likely before the end of September.
Maye is far more mobile than Jones, which will undoubtedly take volume away from the passing game. That’s going to hurt the running backs more than the receivers.
Stevenson is currently the overall RB23, four spots above where he finished last season. I do like the talent. There’s no denying Stevenson has the potential to finish inside the top 12; we’ve seen it before. However, I do not like the opportunity or the offensive situation.
Stevenson is currently my RB24. While his No. 65 overall ADP is very appealing, that’s relative to all positions. Specifically at running back, with so many good ones being pushed down draft boards, there are more enticing options that can be had at a similar price. As a result, I don’t anticipate drafting much Stevenson this season.