During the entirety of his tenure with the Buffalo Bills, Stefon Diggs was an elite fantasy football wide receiver … until the second half of the 2023 season. Was Diggs’ dreadful close to the season a harbinger of his decline? Or was it just a fluke that he can rebound from as a member of the Houston Texans?
Should You Select Stefon Diggs at His Current ADP?
PPR Industry Consensus ADP: 37th Overall (WR18)
- Past Performance: Diggs was a fantasy WR1 powerhouse with the Buffalo Bills, especially in his first three seasons (2020-2022). He consistently delivered high-floor, high-ceiling performances, making him a perennial first-round fantasy pick.
- 2023 Decline: The 2023 season started strong for Diggs, where he averaged 21.7 fantasy points per game in the first nine weeks. However, the second half of the season saw a dramatic drop to just 9.8 fantasy points per game, raising concerns about his future performance.
- New Team, New Challenges: Now, with the Houston Texans, Diggs faces increased target competition from Nico Collins and Tank Dell. Unlike in Buffalo, where he was the clear WR1, he might not command a 30% target share, possibly even struggling to hit 25%.
- ADP Analysis: Diggs is currently being drafted as WR18 (No. 37 overall). Given the potential decline in target share and the risk that his second-half drop-off in 2023 signals a broader decline, this ADP seems overly optimistic.
- Target Competition: With C.J. Stroud as his new quarterback, Diggs’ targets may still be valuable, but he’s no longer the focal point of the offense. Collins is the established WR1, and there’s a case to be made for taking Tank Dell before Diggs.
- Final Verdict: Diggs’ ADP at the 3/4 turn is risky and not recommended. The combination of a new team, increased target competition, and potential decline in ability makes him a much riskier pick than his WR18 ADP suggests. He’s not a player to consider until the fifth round or later.
PFN Consensus PPR Fantasy Ranking for Stefon Diggs
Note that these rankings are the PFN Consensus Rankings and may not fully match my analysis.
48) Aaron Jones, RB | Minnesota Vikings
49) Zay Flowers, WR | Baltimore Ravens
50) Tee Higgins, WR | Cincinnati Bengals
51) D’Andre Swift, RB | Chicago Bears
52) Malik Nabers, WR | New York Giants
53) Stefon Diggs, WR | Houston Texans
54) Trey McBride, TE | Arizona Cardinals
55) DK Metcalf, WR | Seattle Seahawks
56) Terry McLaurin, WR | Washington Commanders
57) Rashee Rice, WR | Kansas City Chiefs
58) Zamir White, RB | Las Vegas Raiders
Stefon Diggs’ Fantasy Profile for the 2024 Fantasy Season
It’s typically very fun to roster Diggs. Last season was no different … at least for the first half.
After joining the Bills in 2020, Diggs immediately posted the best season of his career, averaging 20.5 fantasy points per game. He established himself as a high-floor, high-ceiling WR1 and a perennial first-round pick in fantasy drafts.
Diggs followed up his 2020 season with 16.8 and 18.9 fantasy points per game. Despite his consistent strong production, Diggs wasn’t being valued as highly as he should’ve been entering the 2023 season. As a result, I was targeting Diggs everywhere.
Things were looking great for the first nine weeks. Diggs wasn’t his usual elite WR1 self — he was better. Diggs was averaging 21.7 fantasy points per game, well on his way to the best season of his career. Then, the Monstars showed up and zapped all of his talents.
From Week 10 through the end of the season, Diggs averaged 9.8 fantasy points per game. Forget starting him. Had we known in Week 9 that this is what Diggs was going to do the rest of the season, he would’ve been dropped everywhere. That’s how bad it was.
So, what happened? Can we expect Diggs to return to his regularly scheduled programming? Or should we be genuinely concerned this is the beginning of the end for Diggs, who is now over 30 years old?
The answer is now even more complicated with Diggs being traded to the Texans. For starters, we need to decide whether we buy into the offensive coordinator change as the catalyst for Diggs’ downfall.
From Weeks 1-9, the Bills had a 59% neutral game script pass rate. From Week 10 onward, their neutral game script pass rate was a paltry 47%, the second-lowest mark in the league.
After averaging 2.87 yards per route run in 2022 (third in the league) that number fell to 2.03 (31st). His 7.4 yards per target was a whopping two-yard decline from the previous year, taking him from 17th to 62nd. Perhaps there was a reason the Bills made it a point to target Khalil Shakir ahead of Diggs.
From Week 10 onward, Shakir totaled 387 receiving yards. Diggs had just 349. There’s really no way to spin this as a positive for Diggs. Are we supposed to believe his coaching staff hated him so much that they would deliberately sabotage their chances of winning just to spite him? That seems like a conspiracy even Aaron Rodgers wouldn’t believe.
Is Diggs a Good Value in Fantasy Drafts?
Compounding the complexity of solving the Diggs riddle is the massively increased target competition. He goes from being the undisputed WR1 with no real threat to his volume to competing with Nico Collins and Tank Dell for targets.
Diggs is not going to see a 30% target share on the Texans. He may not even get to 25%. While C.J. Stroud’s targets are worth a lot, it’s not as if Diggs is leaving a rough QB situation.
In my humble opinion, Diggs’ WR18 ADP (No. 37 overall) is straight lunacy. While Collins is correctly the WR1, I would take Dell before Diggs as well.
Between the target competition and the risk that Diggs is just done, I cannot justify even considering Diggs before the fifth round. At the 3/4 turn, he’s not even remotely in consideration.