After an exceptional stretch as one of the premier running backs in the league as a member of the Tennessee Titans, Derrick Henry is positioned to be the primary ball carrier for the Baltimore Ravens — who have been one of the most dominant rushing offenses in the NFL over the last five years.
After turning 30 years old earlier this year, what can fantasy football managers expect from Henry in 2024?
Should You Select Derrick Henry at His Current ADP?
PPR Industry Consensus ADP: 18th Overall (RB9)
- Impressive 2023 Performance: Despite dealing with a lackluster offensive line and inconsistent quarterback play, Henry finished as the RB8 in 2023, accumulating 1,167 rushing yards and 12 touchdowns while playing in every game.
- Signs of Aging: Henry’s 4.17 yards per carry in 2023 was a career low, and while his yards after contact per attempt (2.0) were strong, his yards-before-contact-per-attempt (2.1) highlighted some struggles behind a weak Titans offensive line. However, his move to Baltimore’s top-five rushing offense could rejuvenate his production.
- Fit in Baltimore’s Offense: Henry steps into a Ravens offense that has consistently been one of the league’s best rushing units. With J.K. Dobbins out in 2023, Gus Edwards led the backfield with over 800 yards and 13 TDs, setting a reasonable floor for Henry’s potential in 2024.
- Limited Passing Game Involvement: Henry has never been heavily utilized in the passing game, and that trend is likely to continue in Baltimore, where Lamar Jackson doesn’t typically target running backs frequently. This limits Henry’s upside in PPR formats but keeps him as a strong standard-league option.
- Goal-Line Opportunities: Jackson’s rushing ability could take away some work from Henry, but the Ravens tend not to feature Jackson in goal-to-go situations. This boosts Henry’s value as a short-yardage and goal-line back, giving him solid TD potential.
- ADP Analysis: Henry is currently being drafted as the RB9 at 18th overall, placing him in the second round of fantasy drafts. Given his situation in Baltimore’s run-heavy offense, he projects as a 1,000-yard rusher with double-digit TD upside, making him a solid RB1 candidate at this ADP.
- Final Verdict: Henry remains a strong fantasy asset despite turning 30 this year. His role in a high-powered Ravens offense should allow him to maintain RB1 production, making him a worthwhile pick at his current ADP. While age is a concern, the favorable situation in Baltimore justifies his second-round price.
PFN Consensus PPR Fantasy Ranking for Derrick Henry
Note that these rankings are the PFN Consensus Rankings and may not fully match my analysis.
14) Puka Nacua, WR | Los Angeles Rams
15) Kyren Williams, RB | Los Angeles Rams
16) Marvin Harrison Jr., WR | Arizona Cardinals
17) Travis Etienne Jr., RB | Jacksonville Jaguars
18) Chris Olave, WR | New Orleans Saints
19) Derrick Henry, RB | Baltimore Ravens
20) Brandon Aiyuk, WR | San Francisco 49ers
21) Drake London, WR | Atlanta Falcons
22) De’Von Achane, RB | Miami Dolphins
23) Isiah Pacheco, RB | Kansas City Chiefs
24) Michael Pittman Jr., WR | Indianapolis Colts
Derrick Henry’s Fantasy Profile for the 2024 NFL Season
One common question for an aging veteran who recently turned 30 is how much more does this player have left in the tank? Despite the greatness we’ve seen from Henry during his NFL career, he’s not immune to this line of thinking.
On the surface, Henry’s RB8 overall finish in 2023 could be seen as a huge success considering the lack of talent along the offensive line and the inconsistent quarterback play he endured throughout the vast majority of the season.
All hail the King 🫡
Derrick Henry gets loose for 64 yards! pic.twitter.com/nh1iOvj4Wy
— Pro Football Network (@PFN365) October 15, 2023
Henry still did Henry things with 1,167 rushing yards and 12 touchdowns while appearing in every game last year. But if you look a bit closer, one may start to wonder if Father Time is starting to tap the former Alabama Crimson Tide product on the shoulder.
Henry’s 4.17 yards per carry in 2023 was a career low. His yards after contact per attempt (2.0) were just a tenth of a yard behind Christian McCaffrey last season, but his yards-before-contact-per-attempt mark (2.1) is a bit noteworthy compared to his positional counterparts. Henry’s struggles in this department could certainly speak to the struggles of the offensive line in Tennessee last year.
Yet, he enters a Baltimore backfield this season that has finished as a top-five rushing offense in the league for five consecutive years. After J.K. Dobbins suffered a season-ending injury during their season opener against the Houston Texans, Gus Edwards managed to run for over 800 yards and 13 rushing TDs as the Raven’s leading ball carrier, which was good for an RB25 overall finish in PPR formats.
No disrespect to Edwards, but Henry could certainly produce those types of numbers in a vastly improved situation from last season. If anything, this perhaps sets a very reasonable floor for Henry’s fantasy production heading into 2024.
One aspect of Henry’s game that will certainly transfer from Tennessee to Baltimore is his projected role and production in the passing game. In his career, he has never caught more than 33 passes in a season. One thing we’ve seen consistently throughout the years is that Ravens RBs don’t tend to see a ton of work in the receiving category with QB Lamar Jackson under center.
Speaking of Jackson, is he going to steal some rushing work away from Henry? Yes. Is it likely to significantly impact his fantasy ceiling? Probably not.
The Ravens don’t feature Jackson as a runner in goal-to-go situations like the Philadelphia Eagles do for Jalen Hurts, which gives Henry a slight boost in fantasy value as the preferred short-yardage option in a very productive offense.
Henry’s other competition for touches out of the backfield is shaping up to be names like Justice Hill, Rasheen Ali, and Keaton Mitchell, which means Henry is set to dominate early-down work. I don’t see a back on Baltimore’s current roster having the type of expanded role we saw from Tyjae Spears last year.
Is Henry a Good Value in Fantasy Drafts?
According to recent ADP data, Henry is being drafted towards the start of the second round as the 18th overall player, which puts him as the RB9 off the board in fantasy football drafts.
Should you draft Derrick Henry now as a RB1 in fantasy football after he signed with the Baltimore Ravens? pic.twitter.com/O99BLEPB8H
— PFN Fantasy (@PFNFantasy) March 13, 2024
Assuming the Ravens’ offense continues to run the ball effectively, Henry could project as a 1,000-yard rusher and a threat to finish with 10+ TDs at this point of his career.
Will other running backs see action working alongside him in Baltimore? Yes. Just not at the same level as Spears’ workload from last season.
Since I think Henry is in a great offense catered towards his strengths, I do believe he’s a great buy at his current ADP.