The days of Travis Kelce being the unquestioned TE1 in fantasy football may be coming to an end shortly, but he was still an exceptionally productive fantasy option in 2023 despite battling through numerous injuries.
After the Kansas City Chiefs added multiple dynamic pass-catching options to the offense this offseason, what should fantasy managers expect from Kelce in 2024?
Should You Select Travis Kelce at His Current ADP?
PPR Industry Consensus ADP: 21st Overall (TE1)
- Signs of Decline: For the first time since 2015, Kelce failed to top 1,000 receiving yards in a season, though he did intentionally miss the final game after the Chiefs clinched a playoff spot. Kelce’s production decline is notable, especially as he turns 35 this year, an age where few TEs have maintained elite production.
- Historical Context: Only Tony Gonzalez and Shannon Sharpe have managed 60+ catches and 700+ yards in a season at age 35 or older. While the NFL has evolved, making it possible for Kelce to defy these trends, his age is a significant factor to consider when drafting him in 2024.
- 2023 Production and Usage: Despite the decline, Kelce’s usage still ranks among the elite at the TE position. He finished 2023 with 121 targets (fourth), a 22.7% target share (third), 93 receptions (third), 984 yards (second), and 469 YAC (fourth). However, his five receiving touchdowns were the lowest since 2019.
- Increased Competition: The additions of Hollywood Brown and Xavier Worthy, along with the rise of Rashee Rice, could further cut into Kelce’s role in 2024. Additionally, the Chiefs drafted TCU TE Jared Wiley, potentially signaling a shift toward grooming a future option behind Kelce.
- Consistency Despite Age: Kelce has finished as a top-three fantasy TE for eight straight years, a remarkable feat that suggests he still has value, even if his days as the undisputed TE1 may be coming to an end.
- ADP Analysis: Kelce’s current ADP of No. 21 overall reflects a high premium, though no longer in the first round. This second-round price is fair, given his track record and the potential advantage he offers at a typically shallow position.
- Final Verdict: While Kelce may be entering the twilight of his elite fantasy production, he remains a top option at the TE position. If you believe his decline is overstated and that he can still deliver top-tier numbers, selecting him in the second round is a reasonable decision with great upside potential.
PFN Consensus PPR Fantasy Ranking for Travis Kelce
Note that these rankings are the PFN Consensus Rankings and may not fully match my analysis.
29) Davante Adams, WR | Las Vegas Raiders
30) Jaylen Waddle, WR | Miami Dolphins
31) Nico Collins, WR | Houston Texans
32) Sam LaPorta, TE | Detroit Lions
33) Josh Allen, QB | Buffalo Bills
34) Travis Kelce, TE | Kansas City Chiefs
35) James Cook, RB | Buffalo Bills
36) Jalen Hurts, QB | Philadelphia Eagles
37) Patrick Mahomes, QB | Kansas City Chiefs
38) Alvin Kamara, RB | New Orleans Saints
39) Mark Andrews, TE | Baltimore Ravens
Travis Kelce’s Fantasy Profile for the 2024 NFL Season
After failing to top 1,000 receiving yards in a season for the first time since 2015, fantasy managers are starting to wonder if Father Time is tapping Kelce on the shoulder.
Now, Kelce did intentionally miss the final game of the year because the Chiefs had clinched a playoff spot, which means this streak would’ve likely continued if he had played in the season finale.
But the fact that it would’ve taken a 17th game for Kelce to reach this mark suggests that his production declined in comparison to prior years.
Kelce is set to turn 35 this year, an age at which several productive fantasy options have not been seen in the past. Only Tony Gonzalez and Shannon Sharpe have caught 60+ passes for 700+ yards in a season at 35+.
That being said, the NFL game has changed quite a bit since those two Hall of Famers dominated the league. Kelce is in the conversation for the best player to ever play the position and still plays with Patrick Mahomes, which could make him an exception to the rule.
Still, Kelce is entering uncharted territory for elite production at the TE position this far along the age curve. The numbers were a disappointment compared to his first-round ADP in fantasy drafts last year, but his usage numbers still rank among the elite at the position.
2023 Stats and Positional Ranks:
- Targets: 121 (fourth)
- Target Share: 22.7% (third)
- Receptions: 93 (third)
- Yards: 984 (second)
- YAC: 469 (fourth)
These numbers don’t exactly foreshadow a significant drop in his usage from years past, but they’re lower across the board. Kelce’s five receiving touchdowns were also his lowest mark since the 2019 season.
These small drops, paired with the additions of wide receivers Hollywood Brown and Xavier Worthy this offseason, along with the expanded role we saw from Rashee Rice at the end of 2023, could certainly suggest that his role might dip a little this season. Kelce is still a very good player, he just may not be overwhelmingly elite like we’ve seen in the past.
Best QB-TE combo ever 🤔
Mahomes and Kelce connect for six and a #ChiefsKingdom lead‼️ pic.twitter.com/ryLS0Jtwnq
— Pro Football Network (@PFN365) November 21, 2023
Another small addition Kansas City made this offseason was in the 2024 NFL Draft, where the Chiefs selected TCU TE Jared Wiley in the fourth round as a potential future option to develop behind Kelce and contribute in 12-personnel sets early in his career.
Despite the small dip in production last year, Kelce has still finished as a top-three fantasy TE for the last eight straight years. That’s exceptional.
If you would rather go in a different direction at the position at Kelce’s current price point or punt the position on draft day, that’s fine. However, I would caution you to not write him off prematurely, though. Not until we clearly see a drop in talent, which is hard to claim after watching Kelce’s great postseason production last year.
Is Kelce a Good Value in Fantasy Drafts?
Kelce may no longer be selected in the first round of fantasy drafts, but his current ADP of No. 21 overall (TE1) suggests that you’re still paying a high premium for the veteran.
It’s hard to deny Kelce’s upside in the early portions of the second round at the position, which makes this ADP completely fair for a player with his track record.
If you believe Kelce showed signs of hitting the physical wall due to his age or think the other vertical playmakers the team added this offseason could eat into his target share, then you’re probably going to pass on him at this price.
I think Round 2 is still a fair price for Kelce and presents a great advantage upside at a position that has traditionally been barren once the elite options are off the board.