New Orleans Saints WR Chris Olave was selected 11th overall in the 2022 NFL Draft and has delivered back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons to open his career. Without much in the way of upside under center, can fantasy football managers count on a step forward, or is a carbon copy of his 2023 the most likely outcome?
Should You Select Chris Olave at His Current ADP?
ADP: 22nd Overall (WR11)
There are a handful of receivers that are capable of developing into every-week WR1s this season, and Olave’s name is very much on that list (Michael Pittman Jr. and Nico Collins are also there, a tier below Wilson).
Olave is currently going in the first half of Round 2, a price that feels a touch optimistic but is logical. He’s coming off draft boards just after alpha receivers with their own QB concerns (the aforementioned Wilson and Davante Adams), but ahead of young talent that hasn’t flashed at the pro level the way he has yet (rookie Marvin Harrison Jr. and Drake London).
If you’re picking around the turn, I think you could do worse than a Saquon Barkley/Olave start to the festivities. The first round is loaded with receivers, and if you land a bona fide star at the position with your first pick, I’m more likely to add an RB to my roster than double down at WR (I’m higher on Travis Etienne Jr. than most, but De’Von Achane is also sitting right in that same ADP range if you prefer).
The skipping over Olave in that build is less about him and more about the quality of pass catcher I can get in the third round (Cooper Kupp, Jaylen Waddle, and DeVonta Smith).
Olave’s Fantasy Profile for the 2024 NFL Season
The age curve and skill growth are marks very much working in Olave’s favor and allow him to enter 2024 with the hope of becoming a stable WR1 for his fantasy managers.
WHAT A CATCH 😮💨#Saints WR Chris Olave making it look easy!
pic.twitter.com/BhQvI4faO2— Pro Football Network (@PFN365) September 24, 2023
Last season, the former Buckeye had more catches (87) than any of his teammates had targets — a trend that seems likely to continue given that New Orleans’ only investment to its skill-position group on draft day was Bub Means (a burner out of Pittsburgh with a Rashid Shaheed-like profile) with the 170th overall pick.
You could argue that Olave’s target share is more likely to increase than decrease if you’re factoring in some natural decline as a result of age for Alvin Kamara. The Saints’ starting running back was the only other player on this team to catch even 50 balls in 2023, and baking in some diminishing of skills entering his age-29 season is reasonable.
The question, of course, is if Olave is in for another season in which he suffers from Garrett Wilson-itis. That is — an elite talent whose numbers are kneecapped by average (or worse) play at quarterback.
Derek Carr isn’t as bad as what the New York Jets have thrown out there to open Wilson’s career, but he does have limitations, and there is little question in my mind that Olave’s best days will come with a different quarterback.
In 2023, Olave saw his yards per catch drop by 11%, and he only has nine touchdowns on his NFL résumé despite 257 targets and borderline elite physical tools. I worry less about the bottom line (in today’s era, he’s going to find a way to 75+ catches and 1,000+ yards simply based on volume) and more about the week-to-week consistency.
A season ago, he had four games with under 30 receiving yards, and when you needed him the most, his production was all over the place.
- Week 13 vs. DET: five catches for 119 yards
- Week 14 vs. CAR: four catches for 28 yards
- Week 15 at LAR: nine catches for 123 yards
- Week 16 at TB: three catches for 26 yards
Olave saved you with a score in Week 14, but I touched on his limited touchdown equity through two seasons, making that a risky profile and not one that resembles a stable WR1 in fantasy.