Eight WRs have seen north of 140 targets in each of the last two seasons. Those names include CeeDee Lamb, Tyreek Hill, Davante Adams, Garrett Wilson, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Stefon Diggs, A.J. Brown, and … Michael Pittman Jr. This puts him in the elite target hog category.
After showcasing great chemistry with quarterback Anthony Richardson for their brief time on the field together last year, what can fantasy football managers expect from Pittman in 2024?
Should You Select Michael Pittman Jr. at His Current ADP?
PPR Industry Consensus ADP: 33rd Overall (WR18)
- Elite Target Share: Pittman saw 156 targets in 2023, resulting in 109 receptions, 1,152 yards, and four TDs. His WR13 finish in PPR formats was impressive, especially considering he played the majority of the season with backup QB Gardner Minshew II.
- Chemistry with Anthony Richardson: In limited action with rookie QB Anthony Richardson, Pittman posted solid numbers, catching nine passes for 112 yards and a TD on 16 targets. While the sample size is small, there’s potential for this duo to develop strong chemistry in 2024.
- Slot Usage and Versatility: Pittman’s versatility in Steichen’s offense was evident with 275 snaps from the slot, making him a crucial part of the Colts’ passing game. His usage is similar to how A.J. Brown was deployed in Philadelphia, suggesting a continued prominent role.
- Competition for Targets: While Josh Downs and rookie Adonai Mitchell provide some competition, Pittman remains the clear focal point of the Colts’ passing attack. Downs flashed as a slot receiver, and Mitchell adds a dynamic vertical element, but neither is likely to overshadow Pittman’s target share.
- Positive Regression Potential: Despite his high target share, Pittman only scored four TDs in 2023. With 140+ targets, positive touchdown regression could be on the horizon, potentially boosting his fantasy output in 2024.
- ADP Analysis: Pittman’s current ADP of WR18 at No. 33 overall suggests he’s being undervalued. Given his elite target share and the potential for increased production in 2024, Pittman offers WR2 value with WR1 upside, making him a strong pick in the third round.
- Final Verdict: Pittman’s role as the top target in the Colts’ offense, combined with his chemistry with Richardson and potential for positive regression, makes him a valuable fantasy asset. At his current ADP, he presents significant value with the potential to outperform his draft position.
PFN Consensus PPR Fantasy Ranking for Michael Pittman Jr.
Note that these rankings are the PFN Consensus Rankings and may not fully match my analysis.
19) Derrick Henry, RB | Baltimore Ravens
20) Brandon Aiyuk, WR | San Francisco 49ers
21) Drake London, WR | Atlanta Falcons
22) De’Von Achane, RB | Miami Dolphins
23) Isiah Pacheco, RB | Kansas City Chiefs
24) Michael Pittman Jr., WR | Indianapolis Colts
25) Josh Jacobs, RB | Green Bay Packers
26) Rachaad White, RB | Tampa Bay Buccaneers
27) Mike Evans, WR | Tampa Bay Buccaneers
28) Joe Mixon, RB | Houston Texans
29) Davante Adams, WR | Las Vegas Raiders
Michael Pittman Jr.’s Fantasy Profile for the 2024 NFL Season
After producing 109 receptions, 1,152 yards, and four TDs on 156 targets last year, Pittman registered a career-best WR13 fantasy finish in 2023. This jump in production came with a rookie and backup quarterback at the helm, which actually makes these numbers a bit more impressive when you take a closer look at his production from last season.
There are some things to dissect about Pittman’s career year when projecting his outlook for 2024, such as the fact that he spent the majority of this season playing quarterback Gardner Minshew II, who is now a member of the Las Vegas Raiders.
HUGE catch by #Colts WR Michael Pittman Jr. in OT 🤯 pic.twitter.com/1P8MGioSBg
— Pro Football Network (@PFN365) September 24, 2023
It was a small sample size, but in the two full games in which both Richardson and Pittman played during the former’s rookie campaign, the duo connected on nine passes for 112 yards and a score on 16 targets. Now, there is some noise to these numbers because Richardson played sparingly in Week 2 and Week 5 before the rookie signal caller exited the game due to injury. Pittman caught 13 passes for 108 yards on 19 targets over those two games.
It is difficult to determine if Pittman will continue to see the same volume of looks he saw from Minshew in 2024. He saw 10+ targets in six of the final 11 games of the year once Richardson was sent to injured reserve, and one of those games was cut short due to a concussion suffered in the first half.
Perhaps trying to sift through the small data we have with both Pittman and Richardson on the field together is the wrong approach to determining his role in this offense. Head coach Shane Steichen made Pittman the driving force of this passing game, which saw him fourth among all WRs with a 30.5% target share in 2023.
Additionally, Pittman was heavily utilized in the slot with 275 snaps from that alignment — which ranked 32nd among all receivers and showcases his ideal versatility and how it fits perfectly into Steichen’s offensive scheme. He actually saw a similar quantity of slot snaps and target share as A.J. Brown during Steichen’s last year as offensive coordinator with the Philadelphia Eagles in 2022.
Now, the target competition can be viewed in a couple of different ways. Josh Downs certainly flashed plenty of potential as an explosive slot receiver over a mostly successful rookie year, but he was clearly a distant second option with 68 receptions for 771 yards and two scores on 98 targets.
The team also selected the explosive WR prospect from the University of Texas, Adonai Mitchell, with the No. 52 overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft to complement Pittman with a dynamic vertical weapon who can operate on the outside.
Mitchell didn’t spend much time in the slot during his three years in college and shouldn’t threaten Pittman’s role in this offense too much, but if Mitchell plays to his sky-high potential, then he could see a small dip in overall target share depending on how quickly the rookie acclimates to the NFL game.
Ultimately though, Pittman had a phenomenal season in 2023 and should continue to be the focal point of this passing game. Questions remain about Richardson’s ceiling as a passer and the potential roles of Downs and Mitchell eating into his workload, but Pittman’s recent body of work makes him a rock-solid WR2 with WR1 upside heading into the 2024 NFL season.
Is Pittman a Good Value in Fantasy Drafts?
Pittman continues to feel like an undervalued fantasy asset if we are going by his current ADP of WR18 off the board at No. 33 overall. His usage projects as a player who is trending up and could make the leap inside the top 10 at the WR position in 2024 if Richardson proves to be a plus-level producer through the air in Steichen’s system.
The room for more potential fantasy production is clear when you take a closer look at his numbers. Eleven WRs saw more than 140+ targets in 2023. Pittman and Wilson were the only two players who scored fewer than five receiving TDs in that group.
Some positive touchdown regression could be in session if the target volume continues to hover around 30%, which means I’m going to have quite a few fantasy shares of Pittman this upcoming season if his ADP holds at this position through the draft season.