In fantasy football, we always want to target a combination of good players on good offenses.
Suddenly, the Chicago Bears have one of the most loaded rosters in the league. Featuring WR1s D.J. Moore and Keenan Allen, plus the newly signed D’Andre Swift, as well as rookies Caleb Williams and Rome Odunze, here is your 2024 Chicago Bears fantasy football preview.
Chicago Bears Fantasy Depth Chart
QB
Caleb Williams, Tyson Bagent, Brett Rypien
RB
D’Andre Swift, Khalil Herbert, Roschon Johnson, Travis Homer
WR1
D.J. Moore, Collin Johnson, Dante Pettis
WR2
Keenan Allen, Tyler Scott
WR3
Rome Odunze, Velus Jones
TE
Cole Kmet, Gerald Everett, Stephen Carlson
Caleb Williams’ Fantasy Outlook
While I haven’t gone back and analyzed the entering positions of every rookie QB in NFL history, it’s probably safe to say that no quarterback has walked into a better situation than Caleb Williams. We can certainly say no No. 1 overall pick has entered a situation this good.
Typically, No. 1 overall QBs are tasked with making something out of nothing. That’s literally what C.J. Stroud did last season with the Houston Texans. If Stroud was able to do what he did with the weapons he had, and Williams is supposed to be better than him, imagine what Williams can do if he pans out as expected.
USC’s Caleb Williams has declared for the 2024 #NFL Draft. 👀@IC_Draft says Williams “possesses all the necessary qualities to become a top-tier NFL QB early on in his career.”
More on the upcoming QB class: https://t.co/TI38xXvJVt#FightOn✌️pic.twitter.com/E5hcKp2SGy
— Pro Football Network (@PFN365) January 15, 2024
Although the Bears weren’t the worst team in football last year, they were still very bad. Knowing they were going to draft Williams No. 1 overall, though, they did everything they could to set the kid up for success.
In addition to incumbent Moore, the Bears signed Allen and Swift and drafted their WR1 of the future, Odunze, eight spots after taking Williams.
The Bears’ embarrassment of riches is going to be a problem for their respective fantasy values. But the one guy who benefits from it all is Williams. The only thing standing between Williams and an immediate QB1 finish is his own ability. I think he gets there, making him a very appealing late-round QB target.
D’Andre Swift’s Fantasy Outlook
We’ve never seen anything like what Swift has been through to start his career. For a running back who appeared to be this talented to be on his third team in five seasons is unprecedented.
Last season, Swift was largely an afterthought following him being phased out of the Lions offense over the latter portion of the 2022 season. On the surface, Swift appeared to rebound. He was the Eagles’ lead back and was definitely a value in fantasy relative to where he was drafted. However, a deeper dive reveals a very flawed player who may not be as good as we once thought.
Despite being viewed as this amazing mid-round selection, Swift only averaged 12.5 fantasy points per game. He finished as the overall RB24.
Swift played in 16 games for the first time in his career. Yet, he caught fewer passes than the year prior when he only played 14 games, which was fewer than the year before when he played 13 games.
D'Andre Swift > Taylor Swiftpic.twitter.com/WIOK3Yko9m
— Pro Football Network (@PFN365) September 15, 2023
Swift’s efficiency metrics weren’t bad. They just weren’t good. This is a guy who just one year earlier was second in yards per touch and fifth in percentage of carries to go for 15+ yards. Last season, those numbers ranked 28th and 17th. Still fine, but not exactly special.
Now, Swift joins an offense with an abundance of weapons in the passing game. We may very well see him used like he was in Philly — as a pure runner. Swift’s 10% target share last season was a career-low, and I can see that actually getting worse as Williams elects to throw passes to his actual receivers instead of his running back.
So, where does Swift’s fantasy value come from? Well, the prevailing belief is this will be a very good offense. I share that belief. But even if Swift is efficient on the ground, if he’s not catching passes like he did in his first two seasons, he will need to score touchdowns.
At this point, we just don’t know who the Bears’ goal-line back will be. But if I had to hazard a guess, I would say it won’t be Swift.
With that said, Swift did only score six times last season as Jalen Hurts stole every look from the 1-yard line. If he can score 10 times this season but otherwise do what he did last season, that would make him a solid RB2, which is what I think Swift will be. However, it’s important to acknowledge that unless I’m way off on his role, he lacks the upside to finish as an RB1.
D.J. Moore’s Fantasy Outlook
In what will be a theme for this entire offense, everyone is taking a hit from what they did last year. Playing with Justin Fields, who is nowhere close to belonging in the same sentence with the words “quality passer,” D.J. Moore had the best QB play of his career. That enabled him to set career highs in everything.
Moore caught a career-best 96 passes for a career-best 1,364 yards and a career-best eight touchdowns. He averaged a career-best 16.9 fantasy points per game, finally producing that WR1 season fantasy managers believed he could for so long.
READ MORE: 2024 Dynasty Mock Draft
There’s no denying Moore’s talent. However, volume is king in fantasy. As great as Moore is, there’s just no way he will maintain a 28.9% target share with Allen and Odunze behind him as compared to Darnell Mooney and a cavalcade of misfits at WR3.
With Williams under center instead of Fields, there will be more overall passing volume. They had a 51% neutral game script pass rate last season, the third-lowest in the league. The increase in volume should help offset the improved target competition. Even so, though, I have a hard time looking at 2023 as anything other than Moore’s ceiling.
We want good players on good offenses. Moore certainly qualifies. I wouldn’t necessarily shy away from him. But it all comes down to price. Unless there’s regression baked in, Moore will likely be a bit overvalued in 2024 fantasy drafts.
Keenan Allen’s Fantasy Outlook
The biggest wild card in the Bears’ offense is Keenan Allen. This is not a team that runs many three-receiver sets. At 32 years old, it would make all the sense in the world to stick Allen in the slot. He lined up there 55% of the time in 2023.
While that sounds great to us, Allen is coming off the best season of his career. Any receiver can fall off a cliff at age 32, but Allen did not show any inclination he’s on the precipice of doing so.
Last season, Allen commanded a 32% target share and averaged 21.5 fantasy points per game, finishing as the overall WR3.
#Chargers QB Justin Herbert drops a DIME to Keenan Allen for a TD 🔥#BoltUp
— Pro Football Network (@PFN365) November 12, 2023
Allen was targeted on 29.9% of his routes run, third-most in the league. It’s incredibly difficult to believe he can maintain anywhere near that level of volume while competing with Moore, Odunze, and Kmet for targets, as compared to Josh Palmer and Quentin Johnston.
After Mike Williams went down, the Chargers quite literally did not have anyone else. On the Bears, Allen isn’t even the WR1. It would not surprise me at all if he only averaged 13-14 fantasy points per game.
Stroud is the only rookie QB in NFL history to support multiple top 36 fantasy receivers. He gave us two inside the top 24. All it took was one of the greatest seasons by a rookie QB in NFL history.
Now, to be fair, Moore and Allen and more talented and more established than Nico Collins and Tank Dell. However, even given Williams’ hype and talent profile, asking him to do the same thing is a lot.
Allen has more downside than upside at this point. As a result, he’s probably someone to avoid in fantasy drafts.
Rome Odunze’s Fantasy Outlook
There has been a lot of discourse in the Twitter world, drawing parallels between Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Rome Odunze. We have a first-round WR stepping into a presumptively good offense with two established and still very talented veterans ahead of him.
Of course, it’s not a one-to-one comparison. The actual talent of the players matters. Odunze is a better prospect and should be a better player. As a result, he should command a higher target share. But JSN had a veteran QB in Geno Smith throwing him the ball. As great as Williams projects to be, he’s still a rookie. Are we really expecting a rookie QB to support three top 36 WRs? It’s literally never happened before.
The counterpoint is no rookie QB has ever had three receivers this talented before. Historically, whether WRs have been able to produce with rookie QBs has largely been tethered to how good each of them was at football.
If we are to believe Odunze is a very good prospect, it stands to reason he could produce WR3 numbers as a rookie.
The real appeal with Odunze is the inevitability of injuries in the NFL. One of the main appeals of JSN last season was a potentially fantasy-relevant role on his own with the upside that came with what happens if one of D.K. Metcalf or Tyler Lockett went down. They wound up missing a combined one game all season.
The most likely outcome is that neither Moore nor Allen will play 17 games. That needs to be factored into Odunze’s fantasy value. Plus, there’s always the chance Allen declines or Odunze is just too talented to keep off the field. There are multiple paths here.
If Odunze’s value is pushed down due to “too many mouths to feed,” I will take the same chance on him in the later rounds that I took on JSN last season and hope for a better outcome.
Cole Kmet’s Fantasy Outlook
I really scoffed at the notion of drafting Cole Kmet at all last season. He may not have been a league-winner, but he put together an overall TE9 season, averaging 10.7 fantasy points per game. He was a great value at cost.
Kmet has now improved every year he’s been in the league. Yet, he’s still just 25 years old. There’s a very good chance we haven’t seen his best season. Unfortunately, it’s probably not happening in 2024.
Last season, Kmet saw a 19.3% target share and was targeted on 21.6% of his routes run. His only real competition for targets was Moore. Now, he has Allen and Odunze to contend with.
Even with the increase in volume that will come from not having a running QB, Kmet’s target share is likely not going to exceed 15%. With an increase in efficiency, there’s a chance he could maintain his level of production from last season. But if 10.7 points per game is the best we’re going to get, I’m only taking Kmet as a last resort.
Bears’ Fantasy Sleepers
Given the wealth of talent in this offense, there isn’t really much in the way of sleepers. If one of the receivers goes down, it’s not going to result in someone else stepping up. Rather, it would consolidate the targets between the two guys remaining, plus Kmet.
The only player that has any appeal as a potential sleeper would be sophomore RB Roschon Johnson. To be clear, I am not a Johnson guy. I do not think he is particularly talented. But he’s at least replacement-level, and that’s all a running back needs to be to produce if given volume.
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If Swift winds up underwhelming or getting hurt, it’s possible Johnson could see an increased role ahead of Herbert. We know what Herbert is, and it’s not exciting. Therefore, Johnson would be the preferable last round or two dart throw if you are so inclined.