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    NFL Strength of Schedule Rankings 2024: Who Holds the Edge in the NFC North? For the Top Overall Pick?

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    With 15 weeks of the season behind us, we look at the remaining strength of schedule entering Week 16 to see how all 32 teams shape up.

    The NFL standings are a snapshot of where we stand today, but they aren’t predictive of where we’ll be at the end of 18 weeks. Our strength of schedule metric is designed to help you get a glimpse into the future by ordering the teams from hardest to easiest remaining schedule based on a handful of metrics.

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    Who Has the Hardest Remaining Strength of Schedule in the NFL?

    The Chicago Bears overtook the Green Bay Packers prior to Week 10 when it comes to the most challenging path to the finish line and haven’t looked back since

    If Caleb Williams is going to develop down the stretch of this season, it’s going to come against some of the league’s best. There could be some bumps in the road, but I’m of the belief that Williams is the man to get this franchise past Wild Card Weekend for the first time since 2010, and I expect we see signs of that optimism moving forward.

    Ranking All 32 NFL Teams by Remaining Strength of Schedule

    T-1) Chicago Bears (Last Week: 1)

    The Bears have already clinched their second last place finish in the NFC North over the past three seasons (zero such finishes in the four seasons prior, including a pair of trips to the playoffs) and have a very real chance to enter the 2025 season having lost 12 straight games.

    Better times are ahead for this franchise, but the division isn’t going to lighten up any time soon and that is going to position them to rank high in this column for years to come.

    T-1) Minnesota Vikings (Last Week: 4)

    The Minnesota Viings have strung together seven straight wins and are going to have to truly battle to round out the regular season with 10 straight.

    • Week 16 at Seahawks
    • Week 17 vs. Packers
    • Week 18 at Lions

    That said, this team always seems to take care of business when given the opportunity and rarely beats itself. Kevin O’Connell has this team in a position to push for their second NFC North title in three seasons, a major accomplishment as they share a division with maybe the best team in the sport.

    3) New England Patriots (Last Week: 3)

    Wins are not a measure of success for the 2024 New England Patriots; they are now simply looking to develop Drake Maye.

    We can discuss them playing one team twice in the final three weeks (Bills) another time, as that is a weird scheduling quirk that, in my opinion, shouldn’t be the case.

    Ending this season with three more losses would result in this franchise’s first 14 loss season since 1992.

    4) San Francisco 49ers (Last Week: 6)

    The San Francisco 49ers have had a disappointing season and it stands to get worse with a difficult finishing kick.

    • Week 16 at Dolphins
    • Week 17 vs. Lions
    • Week 18 at Cardinals

    There’s a chance that this time, once 5-4, finishes with 11 losses, something that was not viewed as possible entering the season. Should that occur, we are looking at a six game drop from a season ago, putting them in the mix for the most underachieving teams in 2024.

    5) Dallas Cowboys (Last Week: 15)

    The Dallas Cowboys have won three of four games after a 3-7 start, but the sledding gets significantly more difficult coming down the stretch (Buccaneers, Eagles, and Commanders).

    It’s only a matter of time until this team is eliminated from playoff contention, snapping their three-year streak of getting a postseason invite. A third place finish in the NFC East combined with getting Dak Prescott back next season should allow this franchise to rebound in a meaningful way for 2025, but there are no two ways about it — 2024 has been disappointing.

    6) Pittsburgh Steelers (Last Week: 2)

    The Steelers dropped consecutive games early in the season but are 7-2 since, fueling hopes of a deep playoff run this winter.

    If they are going to prove a true threat, we likely get a preview of it down the stretch (Ravens, Chiefs, and Bengals). Scoring has been an issue at points for this team, a flaw that they will need to correct, both to have success over the final three weeks of this regular season and into January.

    7) Kansas City Chiefs (Last Week: 13)

    The Kansas City Chiefs may not be dominant (10 single-possession wins), but they continue to get the job done over the course of 60 minutes and are a real threat for the NFL’s first three-peat.

    The Patrick Mahomes injury looms and that’s obviously impactful, but they do have a game of breathing room over the Bills for the top-seed in the AFC. With the Texans on Saturday and the Steelers on Christmas (Wednesday), if the Chiefs can manage to split their next two, they will have the ability to control their own fate, theoretically with a fully healthy Mahomes, in Denver to wrap the regular season.

    8) Houston Texans (Last Week: 9)

    It’s officially go time for the Houston Texans. They took care of the Dolphins following their Week 14 bye and have a chance to show their ceiling potential with games against the Chiefs and Ravens next up.

    Everything is pointing toward a second straight double-digit win season with this franchise heading in a very positive direction under C.J. Stroud. If Houston is as good as we think, they find a way to win two of their final three games (Week 18 at Titans) and enter the postseason in decent form after a midseason swoon.

    9) Denver Broncos (Last Week: 12)

    The Denver Broncos’ only losses since Week 2 have come against the Chargers, Ravens, and Chiefs, teams that we all view as legitimate threats.

    Denver closes the season with an interesting three-game run (Chargers, Bengals, and Chiefs), which might give us insight as to what 2025 will look like for the Broncos in addition to determining their 2024 playoff fate. Sean Payton has this team playing well and if they can sustain their pre-bye momentum in a manageable schedule the rest of the way, they will be a popular upset pick in the postseason.

    10) New York Jets (Last Week: 17)

    The New York Jets need to worry about themselves more than the schedule, but they could post some decent results to end this season and potentially entice Aaron Rodgers to give this thing another try in 2025.

    This offense has showed signs of life coming out of the Week 12 bye (79 points in three games) and if they can sustain that level of production, you can be sure that this team will generate hope again this offseason.

    A strong finishing kick (Rams, Bills, and Dolphins) could lead to this team trying to run things back next season —  this team having the upside it takes to truly compete in the AFC East is something we’ve yet to see, but they could take a step forward should they rattle off four straight wins to end the regular season.

    11) Detroit Lions (Last Week: 5)

    The Lions have been the greatest show on turf since the disaster performance against the Texans in Week 10 — a performance that looked like a floor outcome (five Jared Goff interceptions), but still yielded a victory.

    The setback against the Bills in Week 15 dented their chances at the NFC’s top-seed, but more impactful are the injuries that continue to pile up on the defensive side of the ball.

    We could be looking at a battle for NFC North supremacy in Week 18 (Minnesota at Detroit). This Lions team is going to be relying heavily on their offense for the remainder of the season and while this is a potent unit, the loss of David Montgomery is going to require some shifting of responsibilities.

    12) Seattle Seahawks (Last Week: 8)

    The Seahawks haven’t won a playoff game since 2019, but they’ve qualified for the postseason in nine of the past 12 seasons. They showed signs of turning their season around prior to a humbling against the Packers in Week 15 and remain very much in the playoff picture.

    Geno Smith has had some down moments on the road, something he is going to have to correct with the regular season ending with a pair of road games (Bears and Rams), but this defense is playing at a higher rate than during their early/midseason struggles and that gives them a chance to take a big step forward this weekend with the Vikings coming to down.

    13) Cleveland Browns (Last Week: 7)

    The Cleveland Browns have lost three straight games after a surprising win over the Steelers and have elected to move on from Jameis Winston under center.

    Dorian Thompson-Robinson takes over an offense that is now without Nick Chubb and while expectations are low, a meeting with the Bengals this week could at least allow this offense to function at a league average rate.

    After Sunday, the Browns get the Dolphins and Ravens — should they lose out, Cleveland will have three seasons with 14+ losses since 2016.

    14) Green Bay Packers (Last Week: 11)

    The Green Bay Packers seem to have one setback per month and that is a problem for their hopes of making a deep playoff run, but the upside of this balanced team is obvious.

    Some weeks the defense makes a big play, other weeks it’s the Josh Jacobs show, and we know Jordan Love is capable of putting points on the board. This is an interesting team that could win out (Saints, Vikings, and Bears), something that would potentially earn them the five-seed in the NFC.

    The elite nature of the NFC North is going to create for some tough matchups in January and we could well see a battle of divisional foes for a chance to represent the conference in the Super Bowl.

    15) Cincinnati Bengals (Last Week: 19)

    The Cincinnati Bengals can score with anyone in the NFL with Joe Burrow pacing for the best season of his young career, explosiveness that hasn’t yielded much in the way of success due to the lack of consistency on the other side of the ball (they’ve lost five games this season when scoring at least 27 points).

    The schedule can be navigated the rest of the way, and that might be a negative thing. Cincinnati is positioned to be exactly where no team wants to finish — the dead middle third of the league standings. They finish with the Browns, Broncos, and Steelers, a stretch where 1-2 wins is the most likely outcome and thus a middling pick come April.

    16) New York Giants (Last Week: 10)

    We are approaching an important stretch for the New York Giants and their 2025 draft status. New York’s overtime loss to the Panthers in Germany (Week 10) could prove to be a franchise-altering one if it results in a spike in its pick quality in April. They’ve lost nine straight games, and it’s very much within the realm of possibilities that they enter 2025 having lost 12 in a row Weeks 16-18: Falcons, Colts, and Eagles).

    This season might not be going anywhere, but the Giants’ roster could be positioned to avoid the recent trend of failing young quarterbacks if they elect to address the position in April.

    17) Los Angeles Rams (Last Week: 14)

    The Los Angeles Rams have won seven of nine games coming out of their Week 6 bye and are in the division mix as a result.

    When Matthew Stafford has his weapons healthy, Los Angeles is capable of beating anyone (right #BillsMafia?), upside they need to harness to qualify for the postseason.

    • Week 16 at Jets
    • Week 17 vs. Cardinals
    • Week 18 vs. Seahawks

    The defense has shown flashes this season, but in coughing up 37 points to the Eagles in Week 12 and 42 to the Bills in Week 14, it appears obvious that this team will only go as far as the offense can take them.

    T-18) Washington Commanders (Last Week: 18)

    The Washington Commanders have rattled off consecutive wins after a midseason slump and are looking to finish strong (Eagles, Falcons, and Cowboys). This week will prove critical, as there is a chance they see Philadelphia in the postseason, so developing something of a plan would be great to see at home this week.

    Regardless of how this season finishes, Washington fans can rest easy knowing that they are well ahead of their expected pace and are positioned to be a force for years to come with their quarterback position finally in a good spot.

    T-18) Carolina Panthers (Last Week: 21)

    The Carolina Panthers have been a frisky bunch since the beginning of November, giving the fan base optimism that there is light at the end of this rebuilding tunnel.

    Carolina hasn’t had a winning season since 2017, a streak that has a chance at coming to an end next season if the recent growth shown from the young nucleus is something that this franchise builds on over the next nine months.

    That might be a bit optimistic and they could still finish with 14 losses this season (Cardinals, Buccaneers, and Falcons left to close the season), but there is certainly more optimism around this time than there was 12 short months ago.

    20) Baltimore Ravens (Last Week: 24)

    The Baltimore Ravens pounded the Giants in Week 15 (35-14 as a 16-point favorite), seemingly recapturing some of the form they showed early in the season before dropping two games in a three week stretch,

    This team deserves to be labeled as a true contender. Is it possible that their losses simply were a product of playing 13 straight weeks and running into physical competition at the wrong time? The late bye may have hurt their regular season mark, but it could have them in peak physical form for the NFL’s second season.

    21) New Orleans Saints (Last Week: 16)

    Every season, one team just runs as cold as humanly possible in terms of injury luck and with Derek Carr breaking his hand (Week 14), the roster this team is rolling out there for the rest of this season is nothing close to the one they walked into this season with.

    A home date with the Raiders looms in Week 17 and that is the only remaining game in which they will be given a true chance to win.

    On the bright side, the talent on this roster heading into 2025 will be better than their 2024 record suggests, but that’s not going to make a bumpy finish any easier for this fanbase to live through.

    22) Miami Dolphins (Last Week: 20)

    There have been sparks of greatness since Tua Tagovailoa’s return, but this team has struggled with consistency — a flaw that was evident during their Thanksgiving loss in Lambeau.

    The Miami Dolphins have talent on both sides of the ball, but have been unable to put together 60 good minutes on a consistent basis. Their 20-12 loss in Houston (Week 15) undid their hopes of a late season run, but it doesn’t erase the fact that we saw this offense, at least, function at a high level for more than a month. Sustain that and now we are talking as we look forward.

    The division has plenty of moving pieces for the remainder of 2024 and into 2025. This offense has rediscovered their form and that is going to lead to an optimistic 2025 outlook as they will try to keep pace with the Bills.

    23) Las Vegas Raiders (Last Week: 25)

    The schedule and the Las Vegas Raiders’ desires might not align as we approach the home stretch. They haven’t won since September (10 straight losses), but they might well fall into a victory or two with the Jags and Saints due up next.

    It may sound crazy, but those two games, depending on how you evaluate the 2025 NFL Draft board, could prove as impactful as any on the schedule. Lose both and this team positions themselves to take a QB who could flip things for this franchise. Win one, or heaven forbid two, and we could be looking at an extended rebuild without a clear direction.

    Sorry Raider fans, you’re now doing everything in your power to curse your favorite team.

    24) Arizona Cardinals (Last Week: 30)

    The Arizona Cardinals snapped a three-game skid in Week 15 with a 30-17 victory over the Patriots, keeping their playoff hopes alive in the process.

    Losing twice in a three-week stretch to the Seahawks could prove critical, but they have a chance to post double digit wins for just the second time nine seasons with the Panthers, Rams, and 49ers left on the ledger.

    The team is going to need development from this defense and this passing game outside of Trey McBride if they want to contend for years to come, but they’ve been able to do just enough this season to remain in the mix as we enter the holiday season.

    25) Tennessee Titans (Last Week: 26)

    The Tennessee Titans elected to move on from Will Levis ahead of Week 16 in favor of Mason Rudolph, a decision that hints at a desire of this franchise to rebuild in a different fashion, ideally as soon as the 2025 NFL Draft.

    Assuming that is the goal, they are going to need to drop these final three games to maximize the value of their first pick, something that might be more difficult than it sounds (Colts, Jaguars, and Texans — they were outscored 57-55 across their first three games against those teams).

    Tennessee has reached double figure losses in three straight seasons and their next loss will result in their first year with a dozen L’s since 2015 — this team is likely more than one pick away from trending toward competitive, but the draft will certainly be a highlight in terms of optimism for this struggling fanbase.

    26) Philadelphia Eagles (Last Week: 22)

    The Philadelphia Eagles used their Week 5 bye to get healthy and have earned 10 straight victories since then, showcasing form that the 2023 regular season started with.

    There isn’t an Eagles fan on earth that wouldn’t have taken an 12-2 start. If Philadelphia can continue its winning ways (Commanders, Cowboys, and Giants), they’ll enter the postseason as the NFC’s top-seed, an advantage that would be huge for a physical team like this.

    Philadelphia has won the NFC in two of their past three seasons in which they won the division — hey, someone has to be the optimistic person when it comes to discussing sports for this city!

    27) Los Angeles Chargers (Last Week: 27)

    The Los Angeles Chargers have suffered consecutive setbacks, the 40-17 defeat at home against the Buccaneers in Week 15 being particularly concerning.

    A lack of offensive upside might be what limits the success of this team moving forward, but with games against the Broncos, Patriots, and Raiders left, this franchise should reach double digit wins for the first time since winning the Super Bowl in 2015.

    If Jim Harbaugh continues to put more on Justin Herbert’s plate, this is a frisky team that no one would want to play with their season on the line.

    28) Atlanta Falcons (Last Week: 32)

    The Atlanta Falcons remain competitive in the NFC South despite an underwhelming five-week run that includes four losses and now a quarterback change.

    Kirk Cousins simply wasn’t cutting it entering Week 15 and while the team ultimately beat the Raiders, it was in spite of their veteran signal caller. Less than 24 hours following that result, the team announced that rookie Michael Penix Jr. would start against the Giants.

    Asking this Washington product to make a positive impact at this point is asking a lot, but the schedule isn’t prohibitive (Giants, Commanders, and Panthers). That said, this is a smart move for a few reasons — not only does it sell the fanbase on their desire to win now, but it also gives them a chance to see what they have in their 2024 first round pick. There is little downside to this decision as the Falcons are more focused on the future than the present, even if the playoffs are still technically possible.

    29) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Last Week: 28)

    The Buccaneers used their Week 11 bye week to right the ship — after four straight losses, they’ve won four straight and have a great chance to reach double figures in the win column.

    A NFC South title is very much within the grasp of a Tampa Bay team that was picked by very few to be in this position. Bucky Irving’s breakout has given the Buccaneers the sort of offensive versatility that they’ve been starved for, though the rookie is dealing with a back injury that could put increased onus on this passing game.

    You can count out Baker Mayfield in big moments, I’m not. His connection with Mike Evans is peaking at the right time and the more Jalen McMillan looks like a real asset, the less I find myself betting against this team in any capacity.

    30) Jacksonville Jaguars (Last Week: 31)

    The 3-11 Jacksonville Jaguars could finish with 14+ losses for the third time in five seasons. A favorable remaining schedule (Raiders, Titans, and Colts) has the potential to undo some draft value, but with their offensive limitations, they are capable of losing out.

    Working in their favor long-term is that the AFC South is a division without much depth. The Houston Texans appear to be the class for years to come, but outside of that, there is upward mobility. This isn’t a great team, but they are likely better than their record suggests and a high 2025 draft pick gives them the potential to turn things around in rather short order.

    31) Buffalo Bills (Last Week: 23)

    The Buffalo Bills had ripped off seven straight wins prior to the Week 14 loss in Los Angeles against the fighting Puka Nacua’s. They, as expected, rebounded with a 48-42 win over the Lions, reestablishing themselves as true title contender.

    With their final three games this season being of the favorable variety (both Patriots games and a home date with the Jets), there is credence to the Bills being labeled as the third-best bet to win the Super Bowl.

    Their dreams of earning the AFC’s top-seed were likely dashed with the loss to the Rams, but with a favorable finishing kick, Buffalo is going to be hosting playoff games as they look to earn the first championship in franchise history.

    32) Indianapolis Colts (Last Week: 29)

    The Indianapolis Colts have been sporadic on both sides of the ball and could well be considered lucy to have six wins at this point with all of their victories coming by a single possession, four of them by a field goal or less.

    An easy finish to the season (Titans, Giants, and Jaguars) has helped keep their playoff prospects on life support and could result in their first three game win streak of the season, but trusting this team for 60 consistent minutes has been an uphill battle, let alone the thought of stringing together three straight good games.

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