The Houston Texans have acquired veteran WR Stefon Diggs from the Buffalo Bills, announcing to the world in the process that they are all-in on trying to build a Super Bowl contender while QB C.J. Stroud (second overall pick in 2023) is on his rookie deal.
It’s easy to get excited about an offense that has a franchise quarterback, a proven WR1, and a pair of receivers yet to turn 26 years of age who showcased game-breaking skills last season. Is now the time to lock in a future bet on the Texans to win the Super Bowl?
Did Adding Stefon Diggs Alter Houston’s Super Bowl Odds?
We are fresh off of seeing the Kansas City Chiefs win a Super Bowl in a season in which they had one wide receiver clear 460 receiving yards.
Not all quarterbacks, however, are Patrick Mahomes, and we saw a handful of teams enter last season with multiple strong receivers on the same roster, where the “WR1” label can change hands from week to week.
- Dolphins: Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle
- Bengals: Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins
- Eagles: A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith
- Seahawks: DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett
- 49ers: Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk
The NFL is very much a copycat league, and considering that all five of those teams have an 11+ win season with their loaded receiver room, it shouldn’t be a surprise that other teams are attempting to build their offense in a similar fashion.
- Titans: Paired Calvin Ridley with DeAndre Hopkins
- Bears: Paired Keenan Allen with DJ Moore
- Browns: Paired Jerry Jeudy with Amari Cooper
The general idea makes sense, and I don’t blame a team like the Texans for going this route. The reigning AFC South champions have a roster trending in the right direction, though that is far from a secret:
Super Bowl Odds (April 3, DraftKings)
- Kansas City Chiefs: +550
- San Francisco 49ers: +600
- Baltimore Ravens: +900
- Detroit Lions: +1200
- Buffalo Bills: +1200
- Cincinnati Bengals: +1300
- Philadelphia Eagles: +1700
- Houston Texans: +1700
- Dallas Cowboys: +1700
Are the Texans a threat? Sure. Did this move justify moving them this far up the odds board (opened in the +2500 range at most sportsbooks)? That’s a tough sell.
- Justin Jefferson: 0 playoff wins
- Calvin Johnson: 0 playoff wins
- Larry Fitzgerald: 4 playoff appearances in 17 seasons
- Cris Carter: 0 playoff wins in his first seven seasons
Those are obviously some cherry-picked examples, though the overall point remains that the impact of a single receiver on team win equity isn’t all that high.
In my opinion, the addition of Diggs makes sustaining the success the Texans experienced in 2023 more likely, but soaring up the odds board to this degree is very much a reactionary move.
Remember – sportsbooks have nothing to lose by overshooting the impact of a roster change. Their job in these future markets is to get ahead of steam from the public and limit their liability.
I’m not here to tell you that the Texans can’t win at a high level or even that they can’t make a run at their first Super Bowl appearance in franchise history. I’m here to tell you that I would be surprised if their number to do so got any worse with time, making this the worst moment to place your wager.
I’d wait past the draft (full list of Houston Texans 2024 draft picks) at the very least, as it’s unlikely that the Texans make major noise there. In all honesty, I’d be more likely to wait until the schedule comes out to even consider pulling the trigger on this wager.
KEEP READING: Which Teams Are Favored to Win Super Bowl 59?
Houston is subject to a first-place schedule that will include dates with the Chiefs, Dallas Cowboys, and Baltimore Ravens. If they draw a tough opponent in Week 1, you could stand to gain a few points on this bet as an overreaction to an 0-1 start.
Houston is a good team, but the sportsbooks have them labeled as elite.
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