Seattle Seahawks WR Tyler Lockett has been a reliable fantasy football asset for much of his career. Nearing the end of his time in the NFL, can Lockett stave off sophomore WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba and remain this team’s WR2? Or should Best Ball drafters be avoiding the aging wide receiver?
Tyler Lockett’s 2024 Fantasy Outlook
Since 2018, Lockett has been a WR2 in fantasy. He’s never been a WR1. But he’s also never been a WR3 or worse. He averaged between 13.8 and 16.6 fantasy points every year from 2018-2022. Unfortunately, in 2023, things took a turn.
Lockett’s streak of never finishing as a WR3 continued, but not for the reason fantasy managers like to hear. He completely bypassed falling into the WR3 range, finishing as a WR4. Lockett averaged 11.9 fantasy points per game, good for an overall WR37 finish.
The obvious reason for Lockett’s decline would be to point to the team drafting Smith-Njigba in the first round. While JSN was easily the best WR3 the Seahawks have had during Lockett’s time on the team, he didn’t really eat into Lockett’s volume.
Lockett’s 22.3% target share was nearly identical to his 2022 number. He was also targeted on a similar number of his routes, going from 23.4% to 22.2%. Lockett’s aDOT (average depth of target) only dropped by 0.3 yards. Yet, his yards per route run plummeted from 2.07 to 1.63, and his yards per target also dropped considerably from 8.8 to 7.3. So … what happened?
By all accounts, Lockett’s play didn’t seem to decline much, if at all. He may have been 31 years old, but his skill set is one that doesn’t rely heavily on athleticism. It should age well. It appears a big culprit was Geno Smith and the overall decline of the Seahawks’ offense.
Lockett’s catch rate dropped from 71.8% to 64.8%. After scoring nine touchdowns in 2022, he only scored five in 2023. That, alone, is enough to explain his 2.9-fantasy-points-per-game decrease. The question is whether Lockett can turn things around in 2024.
Should You Draft Lockett in 2024 Best Ball Leagues?
It’s been a long time since Lockett’s value was this low. He’s being drafted outside the top 50 wide receivers. Most notably, despite restructuring his contract to remain with the team, he’s going 13 spots below JSN. As disappointing as Lockett was last season, he did not lose his job to the rookie.
Now, to be fair, Lockett absolutely should lose the WR2 job to Smith-Njigba this season. if he doesn’t, it will be a massive indictment on the latter’s ability and lead to a precipitous decline in his fantasy value.
KEEP READING: Best Ball Fantasy WR Rankings 2024
When looking for upside in the later rounds of Best Ball drafts, it’s usually a bad idea to take old players. However, if you took Adam Thielen last season, you got enough WR1 weeks to be pleased with the decision.
Nevertheless, at 32 years old, it’s hard to get behind a sudden resurgence from Lockett. The 2022 season was likely just a magical year for Smith. He’s certainly a capable NFL starter, but I doubt we ever see him run as productive of an offense.
DK Metcalf remains the clear alpha, and I am expecting JSN to be the second-best fantasy wide receiver on this team. There’s a price at which Lockett is worth it, but it’s not until younger wide receivers with uncertain ceilings are off the board.