There’s a solidified group of four quarterbacks at the top of the 2024 NFL Draft, but Michael Penix Jr. and Bo Nix have been jockeying for the QB5 spot all cycle. Which passer should take home that ranking, and what are the arguments for and against them?
Michael Penix Jr. and Bo Nix Battling for QB5 in 2024 NFL Draft
Caleb Williams, Drake Maye, Jayden Daniels, and J.J. McCarthy are widely regarded as the top four QB prospects in the 2024 NFL Draft. And the tier behind them is almost wholly represented by Penix and Nix.
But ask 50 analysts who deserves to be ranked higher — Penix or Nix — and you could see the board split, 25-25.
Penix and Nix play with contrasting styles but also have peculiarly similar career arcs to reflect upon. Penix flashed promise at Indiana but ultimately took the next step with Kalen DeBoer at Washington. And Nix, after flaming out at Auburn, resurrected his career with the Oregon Ducks.
In 2023, Nix completed a record 77.4% of his passes for 4,508 yards, 45 touchdowns, and just three interceptions, and he ran for 744 yards and 20 additional TDs across his two years with the Ducks. Penix, meanwhile, threw for 9,544 yards and 67 TDs in his two years at Washington.
Production, experience, talent — however you slice it, Penix and Nix have it. But projecting them as 2024 NFL Draft prospects is a more complex venture.
They’ve been in a friendly competition for superiority throughout the cycle, from the Pac-12 Championship to the Heisman ceremony to the Senior Bowl to the NFL Combine to now. But looking specifically at the film, how do Nix and Penix match up?
What Does Bo Nix Do Better Than Michael Penix?
Nix, who stands around 6’2″, 214 pounds, has one calling card distinguishing him from Penix: He’s arguably more accurate and more mechanically sound than the Washington passer, but the biggest separator is Nix’s creation capacity and his arm elasticity.
Nix is a visibly superior evasive threat to Penix, and he’s also head and shoulders above Penix when it comes to throwing off-platform. In the modern NFL, those traits can be invaluable, especially when throwing off boot actions and going off-script.
Creation capacity is where Nix sets himself apart as a 24-year-old prospect, but as his scouting report at PFN details, he has a fairly complete profile even beyond that:
MORE: Top QBs in the 2024 NFL Draft
“Nix is a very competent field general with pre-snap autonomy, a functional floor as a processor, and the high-end athleticism and arm elasticity to withstand adversity, create off-script, and stay dangerous as a passer while off-script.”
Nix’s control, creation ability, accuracy, and discretion as a decision-maker have caused many to speculate that the Denver Broncos and Sean Payton are one of his best fits. He’d be an ideal game manager for Payton while also providing the athleticism and arm elasticity to elevate the offense in adverse situations.
What Does Michael Penix Jr. Do Better Than Bo Nix?
Penix isn’t as accurate as Nix on a down-to-down basis, and part of that stems from slight mechanical inconsistencies with his lower body. He’s relatively arm-dominant and can be particularly uncomfortable resetting his mechanics when he’s rolling off-platform.
That said, inside the pocket, Penix shines as a fearless gunslinger, with the field vision and elite drive velocity to pick out and hit microscopic windows outside the numbers and up the seams.
While it is by no means a weakness for Nix, arm strength is where Penix has him beat easily. Penix’s drive velocity is some of the best in the class, and his ability to get the ball to his target on a line keeps the offense on schedule and keeps defenders from closing ground.
Penix’s arm is not only incredibly strong but very elastic, with the angle freedom to adjust launch points and layer passes through tight coverages. And while Nix and Penix are both great pre-snap processors, Penix is arguably more consistent at scanning the field, going through his progressions, and testing the intermediate range.
Medicals were the biggest potential roadblock for Penix, and at the NFL Combine, it was reported that he passed medical checks. As detailed in his scouting report at PFN, he has immense upside if he can stay on the field:
“At his peak, and if he’s able to stay healthy, Penix could be a Matthew Stafford-type passer at the NFL level. He’s a quality pocket operator with functional mobility who can carve defenses at all levels with his velocity, angle freedom, surgical vision, and predatory passing instincts, and he’s a competitor his teammates can rally around.”
Which QB Features in Latest Mel Kiper Mock Draft?
On my 2024 NFL Draft board, Penix has a slightly higher raw on-field grade than Nix, but both passers are fringe first-round values for me. Where each passer may go in the 2024 NFL Draft ultimately depends on how many suitors are left and the stylistic preferences they have.
In his recent first-round mock at ESPN, NFL Draft guru Mel Kiper had Nix going to the Broncos at No. 12 overall, putting Nix in a Payton offense where he’d be positioned to succeed with his creation capacity, accuracy, and distribution chops. Penix was left out.
GET DRAFTING: Free NFL Mock Draft Simulator With Trades
NFL.com’s Daniel Jeremiah, meanwhile, placed Penix to the Las Vegas Raiders at No. 13 overall in his latest mock draft, inserting Penix in a Luke Getsy offense where he’d allow screen plays to stay on schedule with his velocity while also testing the seams and the corners with his pace. Jeremiah left Nix out of Round 1.
In short, Penix and Nix are very closely rated as QB5 candidates, and whoever goes first between them will be up to schematic and cultural preference. Both are 24-year-old passers with some limitations to note but boast exciting degrees of upside and operational utility.
The polarizing profiles of Nix and Penix also bring about vast outcome variance. They could go as early as No. 12 overall or fall to Round 2. But in the right situation, both can be capable NFL starters.
All the 2024 NFL Draft resources you need — the draft order, the top QBs, the Top 100 prospects, and the full 2024 Big Board — right at your fingertips at Pro Football Network!