If the Cincinnati Bengals Trade Tee Higgins, What Could They Get in Return?

CINCINNATI – Cincinnati Bengals wide receiver Tee Higgins kicked off a frenetic week of free agency Monday morning by asking for a trade, but the front office isn’t expected to do much with the request beyond acknowledging it has been heard.

Bengals director of player personnel Duke Tobin has always followed the “bird in the hand” philosophy, placing greater value on a player with known, proven talent rather than the unpredictably of promised potential that comes with draft picks.

Cincinnati used the franchise tag on Higgins and committed $21.8 million to him because the team believes pairing him with Ja’Marr Chase and Joe Burrow gives the Bengals the best chance for another Super Bowl run in 2024.

But as unlikely as a Higgins trade may be, the chance of it happening isn’t 0%.

What Could Tee Higgins Trade Compensation Look Like?

So for the sake of speculation, let’s look at what sort of compensation the 25-year-old receiver could bring.

History is always a good barometer for these types of deals, but the most recent receivers who were traded aren’t in the same class as Higgins.

The list includes names such as Jerry Jeudy, Donovan Peoples-Jones, Mecole Hardman, Van Jefferson, Chase Claypool, Denzel Mims, Allen Robinson, and Elijah Moore, each of whom was dealt within the past year.

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But if we go back to April 2022, there is an almost identical comp — A.J. Brown.

The Tennessee Titans traded Brown to the Philadelphia Eagles on Day 1 of the NFL Draft for Pick 18 and a third-round selection (No. 101).

The numbers posted by Brown and Higgins in their first three seasons are striking in their similarity.

Brown’s numbers are listed first.

Games: 43-46
Targets: 295-327
Receptions: 185-215
Yards: 2,995-3,028
TDs: 24-19
Snaps: 2,042-2,272

Higgins, of course, had a fourth year of production in 2023, while the Tennessee Titans traded Brown after his third season and with a year remaining on his rookie deal. That meant the Eagles only had to pay Brown $3.9 million in his first season in Philadelphia.

Instead, Philadelphia gave Brown a four-year, $100 million extension the same day as the trade.

Tee Higgins with an absolute GROWN MAN MOVE on a play of the year candidate that ties it up with less than a minute left❕❕❕#RuleTheJungle pic.twitter.com/vBzwLr1cyl

— Pro Football Network (@PFN365) December 16, 2023

The compensation of a first- and third-round pick is a good place to start when considering what type of return the Bengals could expect for Higgins. But there is a huge difference in value between first-round selections that are just six or seven picks apart. And a top 10 pick in the third round is considerably different than a bottom 10 pick on Day 2.

So the next step is to look at teams that might have interest in trading for Higgins and where they pick in each round. By using the trade value chart, you can see if those picks are similar to the value the Titans got — No. 18 is worth 900 points, and No. 101 is worth 96 — a total of 996.

Another thing to consider is that the strength of this year’s wide receiver class works against Higgins getting his wish because that certainly will affect what other teams would be willing to offer the Bengals.

Let’s look at some possible trade partners and what those deals could look like.

Tennessee Titans

The Titans were thought to have interest in Higgins, given that head coach Brian Callahan was his offensive coordinator for the Bengals during all four of Higgins’ seasons in Cincinnati.

But after Tennessee signed Calvin Ridley for $90 million Wednesday, Higgins likely isn’t in play there. And if the Titans are interested, the first and third compensation would not have worked because their No. 7 pick is worth 1,500 points, already well above the 996 used in the Brown deal.

If the Bengals were to swap No. 18 for No. 7, that would be a net value of 600, and the teams could throw in later picks to get closer to the 996 target.

New England Patriots

The Patriots have the No. 3 pick and need a quarterback, so the most likely scenario here would be sending their second (No. 34, 560 points) and third (No. 68, 250).

MORE: NFL Free Agency Tracker 2024

Or perhaps it could be this year’s second and next year’s second, which varies from 580 points for No. 33 all the way down to 270 points for No. 64.

Arizona Cardinals

The Cardinals have two first-round picks, No. 4 (1,800) and No. 27 (680).

Arizona could send the Bengals No. 27 and swap second-round picks, which would give Cincinnati No. 35 (550) and Arizona No. 49 (410) and a 140-point gain for the Bengals.

That total value would be just 820, so the Cardinals could throw in their fourth-rounder as well (No. 104, 86 points) to get closer to the 900-point range.

Atlanta Falcons

The idea of pairing Higgins with Drake London and Kyle Pitts as targets for Kirk Cousins would be enticing for Atlanta.

If the Falcons swap No. 8 (1,400) with Cincinnati’s No. 18 (900), that gives the Bengals a 500-point value. And Atlanta could throw in its second-round pick, No 48 (420).

That would bring the total to 920 and give the Bengals No. 8 and back-to-back picks at 48 and 49 in the second round.

Washington Commanders

If Higgins is looking for a trade and an extension, the Commanders have the cap space to do that. Washington could send the Bengals its first of two second-round picks (No. 36, 540 points) and third (No. 67, 255) to get within range at 795.

Adding a 2025 fourth-round pick would get the deal closer to the mark.

Carolina Panthers

The Panthers need weapons for Bryce Young, and returning Higgins to the Carolinas, where he played at Clemson, would be a hit for the fan base.

Carolina has the first pick in the second and third rounds. Those have a combined value of 845, which is well below the 996 comp target, but there is hidden value in having the first pick in the second round, as it gives an organization time to field offers — of which there usually are many — all day before Round 2 starts at 7 p.m. ET.

There would be a certain symmetry here, given that Higgins was the first pick of the second round in 2020.

Jacksonville Jaguars

They lost Calvin Ridley and added Gabe Davis. But the Jaguars could use another weapon to pair with Davis and Christian Kirk, and quarterback Trevor Lawrence already has an established connection with Higgins from their days at Clemson.

But Jacksonville doesn’t have a third-round selection this year, and every pick it has is next to a Cincinnati pick, rendering swaps moot.

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The Jaguars could trade their second-rounder this year, No. 48 (420), and second-rounder in 2025, but if Higgins were to have a great season and help the Jaguars make the playoffs, it would hurt the Bengals not to have him and hurt them by lowering where the 2025 acquired pick would be.

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