The Carolina Panthers were the worst offense in the NFL last season in terms of points, passing yards, total yards, and a variety of other stats, but I only have so much space, and I’d rather use that real estate to discuss the fantasy football impact of the Diontae Johnson trade on the players in this offense.
What Is the Fantasy Impact of Diontae Johnson Being Traded to the Carolina Panthers?
Simply put, this is a shame for redraft managers.
Earlier in the legal tampering window, we learned that Russell Wilson would be calling the shots in Pittsburgh this season. After shortening his average depth of throw in 2023 to improve his accuracy (his completion percentage rose from 60.5% in 2022 to 66.4% last season), there was hope Johnson’s ability to separate around the line of scrimmage would be magnified, potentially returning him to the 90-plus-catch club that returns a viable weekly floor.
Those hopes have been dashed. Bryce Young is a developmental project in Carolina, and while he could grow into an above-average signal caller, nothing from his rookie season indicates that such a move is imminent.
If your initial reaction is to label Johnson as a younger Adam Thielen, I understand the general idea. Both can get open in a hurry, and Thielen parlayed that into a 103-catch season with a version of Young throwing passes that figures to be below what we get in 2024.
But let’s not forget that Thielen was God’s gift to fantasy for a month and was otherwise quiet. During an early-season five-game stretch (29.4% of his season), Thielen racked up 46.6% of his receptions and 56.1% of his yards.
The spike in performance was nice, but the fact of the matter is that he wasn’t an asset for the majority of the season, and now he and Johnson project to be sharing those looks that were all his in 2023.
In an offense that wanted to explore his ability down the field, had the threat of vertical play on the other side, and possessed at least a league-average ground attack — Johnson has scored five times in 31 games over the past two seasons, averaging just 4.4 catches per game.
Johnson is worth a roster spot based solely on the youth under center and the non-linear nature of improvement at that position, but I’m labeling Johnson as a depth option in 2024 that comes with little week-to-week upside.
Diontae Johnson’s Impact on Adam Thielen
Everything I just said for Johnson applies to Thielen, and based on the age curve, my faith in Thielen returning any consistent value is even lower now than it was before this trade.
His successful fantasy seasons came with the Minnesota Vikings in a clear WR2 role that was advantageous based on the level of attention paid to the alpha receiver.
Adding a receiver like Johnson was the worst case for Thielen — he’s a viable target earner who is younger than him and fills a similar role. Maybe the Panthers work on extending Johnson’s route tree like the Steelers were attempting to do, but even in that best-case scenario, what’s the upside of Thielen (under 11 yards per catch in three consecutive seasons)?
Given the level of talent coming into our game from the college ranks this season, I’d rather take a flier on the unknown of a rookie that we have yet to see on the professional stage than hope for a decent floor from a 34-year-old receiver in an offense that still has plenty of growing pains to go through.
Diontae Johnson’s Impact on Bryce Young
While I don’t expect this move to result in big 2024 numbers for Young, dynasty managers should be encouraged by this move. By investing in this passing game, the franchise is telling Young that he has a chance to prove himself as “the guy.” For better or worse, we should have a clearer idea whether Young is a quarterback to build around after this season, and that clarity is all we can ask for.
KEEP READING: Russell Wilson Reaction — What Signing With the Pittsburgh Steelers Means for Fantasy
Am I optimistic that he will break out? No, but he has more help, and that helps us from an evaluation business. Not all moves are league winners in dynasty leagues — the ability to get a better feel for an asset on your bench is valuable, even if it may not impact your 2024 win-loss record in a significant way.
