In one of the more surprising moves of NFL free agency, former Las Vegas Raiders RB Josh Jacobs agreed to a deal with the Green Bay Packers. What does Jacobs’ arrival in Green Bay mean for fantasy football?
Update: Per Tom Pelissero, Aaron Jones is set to be released by the Green Bay Packers.
What Is the Fantasy Impact of Josh Jacobs Signing With the Green Bay Packers?
NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport and Tom Pelissero were the first to report the news.
Ever since Jacobs reluctantly agreed to play out the 2023 season on the franchise tag, I always felt he was as good as gone in 2024. It was a bit surprising to see the Raiders listed as the team most likely to (re-)sign him. While nothing surprised me about Jacobs leaving, the landing spot came completely out of left field.
The Packers declined to extend AJ Dillon, opting to let him walk. However, they do still have a rather expensive Aaron Jones under contract. The Packers needed to add a running back, but they certainly didn’t need to make a huge splash like signing Jacobs.
Jacobs’ Arrival Suggests Aaron Jones May Be Released
There haven’t been any direct reports of Jones’ potential release, but some NFL insiders have suggested it as a possibility. Jason LaCanfora indicated on @IA1057TheFan that Jones could get cut.
I’ve become increasingly skeptical of reports of Jones leaving Green Bay. The first we heard about this was two years ago, following Dillon’s apparent rise. Instead, the Packers extended Jones.
Although the career-Packer is 29 years old, he looked every bit as explosive as he always had last season. A nagging hamstring strain cost him a huge chunk of time, but once Jones got healthy, he put on some of his best performances, particularly in the playoffs.
While Jones is clearly still capable of playing at a high level, he very well may only have one or two more years of quality performance remaining. The Packers have Jordan Love still on his rookie contract and a medley of young wide receivers.
After nearly making the NFC Championship Game last season, it makes sense that they’d want to make a real run at things in 2024.
I have a very hard time believing Jacobs signed with the Packers to be part of a committee. Fantasy managers can and should operate under the assumption that Jones will be playing elsewhere in 2024.
Jacobs joins a Packers offense on the upswing. If he is, indeed, the only game in town, Jacobs could have a bounce-back year after an inefficient 2023 season.
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We’ve seen Jacobs post elite RB1 numbers before. But we’ve never seen what he looks like in a good offense.
Fantasy managers drafting early might be able to get a discount on Jacobs while Jones is still around. If Jones does end up remaining with the Packers, both backs would likely be highly efficient on somewhat limited volume. It would be fun for the Packers but terrible for fantasy.
There’s an obvious risk involved in assuming a team makes a certain move. But Jacobs, as the lead back in Green Bay with no Jones, is an easy RB1 and possibly top-six back.
Aaron Jones’ Future Remains Uncertain
The most difficult player to evaluate now is Jones. If he does end up cut, the report above names Baltimore as a possible destination. The problem for Jones is going to be when it happens if it does.
We are going to see most running back roles fill over the next couple of days. If Jones is cut in June, his options may be limited. As talented as Jones still is, it’s unlikely a team signs a 29-year-old running back to be their unquestioned RB1. He’s likely staring down the barrel of a committee.
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If there is a silver lining to evaluating Jones, it’s that his value as part of a potential tandem with Jacobs is probably similar to what his value will look like if he signs on to be part of a committee elsewhere.
The Ravens would be a great landing spot. If he ends up there, he’s probably a mid RB2. If he stays in Green Bay to play with Jacobs, he’s more of a low RB2, at best.
