D’Andre Swift was finally labeled as a bell cow in 2023 with the Philadelphia Eagles, as he was handed the ball 229 times (78 more than any season while with the Detroit Lions), and while his efficiency dipped some, no one was complaining with a final line of 1,236 scrimmage yards and six scores.
Can he build on a career year as he enters his age-27 season in Chicago after the Bears inked him to a three-year $24 million deal? Let’s examine the fantasy football impact of Swift heading to Chicago to join the Bears.
What Is the Fantasy Impact of D’Andre Swift Heading to the Chicago Bears?
The state of the Bears offense is a bit influx at the moment of this signing, as we don’t know who will be under center for them in 2024, but there’s no denying that this signing should result in the lowering of expectations in all fantasy football formats.
Earlier this month, when I wrote about the potential value changes of the viable running backs positioned to change addresses this offseason, I wondered if Swift would actually gain value by moving on from the City of Brotherly Love.
The idea there was that moving to an offense that doesn’t have a goal line vulture playing quarterback could result in Swift clearing the five-rushing score threshold that he has been stuck at in back-to-back-to-back seasons.
Whether it is Justin Fields under center or not, Swift’s usage near the goal line should spike on a percentage basis, but the sheer volume of trips inside the opponents’ 20-yard line stands to be a major problem.
Red-zone trips per game, past three seasons
- Eagles: 3.53 (7th)
- Bears: 2.87 (T-25th)
A flaw like that lands Swift’s scoring outlook no higher than it was last season (six touchdowns on his 268 touches), and that might be a best-case scenario if the Bears struggle to surpass 5.0 yards per play as they did in 2023 (24th).
That said, a complete fade of Swift is dangerous. We have a four-year sample size of him averaging 5.3 yards per touch and boasting the type of versatility we clamor for (one target every 2.3 rush attempts for his career), and this contract suggests that Chicago is counting on him being their bell cow this season.
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The addition of Swift to this backfield does a few things to the surrounding pieces in Chicago.
It completely removes Roschon Johnson from my redraft radar (115 touches as a rookie) as anything more than a handcuff option in deeper leagues. He was used as primarily a third-down option last season, and given Swift’s ability to thrive in the passing game, Johnson’s role is more likely to regress than expand, barring the use of creative two-back base sets.
I do, however, like this move for the passing game. Whether it is Fields or a rookie, a versatile bell cow back is a skeleton key. Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, Dak Prescott, Jordan Love, and Brock Purdy all posted top 10 seasons in 2023 with such an RB at their side, a trend I think we see continuing through 2024.
Of course, if it’s a rookie, I’m not going to slot him in as a top-10 fantasy QB, but I do think this signing gives that player more streamability and DFS appeal.
DJ Moore’s status is going to rely much more on who is throwing the ball than the name atop the running back depth chart, but a horizontal threat isn’t a bad thing for Moore. He is a YAC monster that the Bears will look to get the ball out quick and across the middle, routes that open up if they are sweating Swift flaring out from the backfield.
Swift’s ADP is that of a low-end RB2 in early drafts – I was ranking him ahead of that when his team was unknown, but now that we have a location, I think that’s about right.
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A slightly underrated part of this deal is the minor uptick in value for all of the remaining members of this free agent RB class. The Bears were a known suitor in this market and one with as limited of a 2024 offensive ceiling as anyone.
With them now out of the bidding, players like Josh Jacobs, Austin Ekeler, Saquon Barkley, and Derrick Henry move up a few spots in my current rankings, as the odds have increased that they land in a potent offense.