There are a lot of different ways to do NFL QB rankings. Do you just look at the last few weeks, or the season as a whole? What statistics do you use, and how do you weigh them? Here at Pro Football Network, we have created our own Quarterback+ (QB+) metric, which weighs statistics we value highly and then uses them to evaluate a quarterback across the current season.
Our metric uses numbers that are fully available through 2019, so that’s where the historical context comes from. All data referenced is relative to either the current season or in comparison to stats dating back to 2000 for most or 2019 for pressure-related data.
So, what is PFN’s QB+ metric?
We’ve created a formula for assigning a letter grade to every quarterback’s performance.
Is it perfect? No. Nothing is.
We’re molding stats that include success rates when pressured, third-down conversion rate, and pocket production. The added wrinkle in this PFN Insight is quantifying “clutch.”
Defining “clutch” performance is an imperfect science. In this case, we’ve used timeliness-based stats to account for score and situation.
1) Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens
Grade: A+
Score: 99.8
For the second time this season, Lamar Jackson struggled against the Steelers’ defense. Jackson has two grades below a C in 2024, both of which came against the Steelers. His numbers are an intriguing contrast, with Jackson having been excellent from a clean pocket (1.76 EPA per dropback; EPA/DB), good in terms of nYPA (8.6), and solid in terms of overall EPA/DB (0.25).
However, he struggled when pressured, with an EPA/DB of -0.94, and was really bad in clutch situations. Thanks in large part to a fourth-quarter turnover, as well as some other struggles, Jackson finished with the worst clutch score in our database by quite some distance. The interception did not lead to anything for the Steelers, but Jackson does not get bailed out by his defense in our metrics.
The MVP debate regarding Jackson is going to be intriguing. His QB+ number is one of the best we have seen since 2000 and is better even than his incredible 2019 MVP season. He leads the league in EPA/DB (0.32), nYPA (8.5), and TD/INT rate (9.3). That is an impressive list, and that is before we start on statistics that he ranks inside the top five.
Despite some struggles in recent weeks, Jackson still ranks fourth in the league across the last four weeks, not that far behind Josh Allen in first. The five losses for the Baltimore Baltimore Ravens will count against Jackson, but the fact those are also five of his worst games of the season demonstrates just how important he is to this team. Week 16 was the first game Jackson played badly, and his team won.
2) Jared Goff, Detroit Lions
Grade: A-
Score: 92.8
Jared Goff continues to impress with his consistency, as he added his eighth game of the season graded as a B- or above in Week 16. Goff’s numbers against the Bears were impressive across the board, finishing with a 0.32 EPA/DB, positive EPA numbers both from a clean pocket and when pressured, and 10.3 nYPA. His clutch numbers were really the only thing that let him down, but it was still a solid week.
Goff is second in the league in EPA/DB from a clean pocket (0.50) but 12th when pressured (-0.22 EPA/DB). His third-down conversion rate of 43.3% ranks eighth, and his 3.0 TD/INT ranks 10th, leaving some further room for improvement.
Goff has been on a solid run in recent weeks. This was his third week in a row grading out as a B- or better, and he has not had an individual game graded below a C- in 2024.
3) Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills
Grade: A-
Score: 91.0
Josh Allen’s impressive run over recent weeks came to a screeching halt in a somewhat surprising way against the Patriots. Allen’s struggles against this defense were not at all what we expected, and they may cast just a little doubt on his MVP credentials, especially if they stretch over the final three weeks. A C- grade was his worst since Week 5.
Allen finished with just a 0.04 EPA/DB and 5.2 nYPA. His clutch scores were all negative without being a disaster, and he completed just 55.2% of his passes for 154 yards. He avoided major disaster, but performances like this saw the Buffalo Bills lose two games in a row back in Weeks 4 and 5.
Allen remains inside the top five for most of the statistics we look at in QB+. His 0.23 EPA/DB ranks third in the league, and he is fourth in both EPA/DB from a clean pocket and when pressured. The only statistic of note where Jackson is not in the top five is his third-down conversion percentage, where he ranks ninth.
Allen’s recent run is particularly impressive. Over the last four weeks, he has ranked first in the league. In terms of the MVP conversation, he has timed that run very nicely to establish himself as a firm favorite. However, our data shows that when the entire season is considered, Jackson still has a better overall body of work.
4) Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals
Grade: A-
Score: 90.6
It was not Joe Burrow’s finest performance in Week 16, but it didn’t need to be against a bad Browns team. It was his third C grade in the last five weeks, and that raises some slight concerns as the Cincinnati Bengals need him to be at his very best to close out this season. Over the four weeks since their bye, Burrow ranks eighth at the position.
Burrow struggled under pressure this week (-0.48 EPA/DB), which has been unusual for him. He ranks fifth in that statistic this season (-0.10 EPA/DB). He is actually better relative to the league when playing from pressure than he is from a clean pocket (ninth) but posted an impressive 0.59 EPA/DB from a clean pocket this week.
He had a bad week by his standard on third downs in Week 16, converting just 30.0% of opportunities, dropping his impressive 46.1% rate on the season slightly, which ranks second.
5) Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles
Grade: B+
Score: 88.8
This week, we saw just how important Jalen Hurts is to the Philadelphia Eagles’ offense, as he missed the majority of the game due to a concussion. Kenny Pickett was not a disaster, but he was a clear step down from Hurts, and it took a dynamic element out of the offense in Hurts’ ability to make plays with his legs. It is now a race against time for Hurts to clear the concussion protocol and return next week.
Playing well from a clean pocket (0.47 EPA/DB; third), on third downs (44.3%; sixth), and having a solid nYPA number (7.3; 10th) has been Hurts’ calling card this season. However, he continues to struggle when having to make plays under pressure, ranking 22nd on the year with a -0.37 EPA/DB.
As things stand, those struggles under pressure have not caused Hurts and the Eagles any major problems. However, we may see opposing defensive coordinators try to exploit those concerns in the playoffs. It comes with legitimate risk because Hurts can be devastating with his running ability if he gets loose.
6) Jayden Daniels, Washington Commanders
Grade: B
Score: 87.3
Jayden Daniels appears to have steadied his midseason wobble and now ranks sixth over the last four weeks. If we compare quarterbacks directly, our current QB+ numbers still indicate that he should be the Offensive Rookie of the Year. Other than one dip to a D+, Daniels has been impressive and consistent throughout the season.
It was one of those rollercoaster days we have become used to from Daniels in his rookie year. The headline numbers of 258 passing yards and five passing touchdowns are nice, but a QB+ of 77.7 this week tells you that there was a lot of bad to counter-balance that.
Daniels was mediocre from a clean pocket this week, finishing with an EPA per dropback of 0.18, his fourth-lowest of the season. His 6.5 nYPA was also below average for him this season. However, there was a lot of good, with a 50% third-down conversion rate (tied for his fourth-best of the season), and a 0.48 EPA per dropback when pressured, which is his best of the season.
The balanced nature of Daniels’ play has been fantastic throughout the season. He is fifth in the league in terms of EPA/DB at 0.17, seventh from a clean pocket (0.29 EPA/DB), and third when under pressure (-0.06). He has 28 total touchdowns on the season — 22 of which came through the air. He has used his legs when required but has not been shy with his arm, either.
7) Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ers
Grade: B
Score: 86.5
There is going to be a lot of focus on Brock Purdy this offseason as he seeks a new contract. The way the San Francisco 49ers have faded away this season will not help him, but his career QB+ numbers are still exceptional, including ranking in the top 10 this season.
It has been a weird recent run for Purdy, who has bounced from a D+ to an A- and then back to a D and a C+ in the last four games, ranking 14th in that time frame. This week he was good from a clean pocket with an EPA/DB of 0.65 but struggled when under pressure (-0.56 EPA/DB). His 45.5% third-down conversion rate and 7.3 nYPA were good, but his clutch play left plenty to be desired at the end of the game.
Purdy ranks sixth in the league this season both when playing under pressure (-0.11 EPA/DB) and from a clean pocket (0.31 EPA/DB). Despite all the injuries around him, Purdy is still averaging 8.0 nYPA (fourth) and a 43.7% conversion rate on third downs (seventh). It should also be pointed out that he is getting just 5.4 yards after the catch per completion (YAC/Cp), which ranks down in 16th.
There is enough evidence this year that Purdy deserves to be paid like a top-10 quarterback. When you consider his previous seasons, you could even make the case for a top-five contract value.
8) Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins
Grade: B
Score: 86.1
We saw a bounce-back performance from Tua Tagovailoa in Week 16, but it was far from a convincing performance as he tried to come back from a potentially playoff-costing D- in Week 15. Tua’s numbers this week are not all that bad, other than a 30% third-down conversion rate, but they are well below what we expect from him, ranking outside the top 10 across the board.
Tua ranks 21st over the last four weeks, and the golden performances we had seen in those first few weeks after his return have come crashing back to earth. He still ranks as the best quarterback in the league when facing pressure but has just a 0.27 EPA/DB from a clean pocket. His clutch numbers overall have been good, but we have seen some struggles in the past two weeks.
There is still a lot of positive in these numbers including a 0.21 overall EPA/DB (fourth) and a 42.9% third-down conversion rate (10th). Tua remains very much considered one of the top quarterbacks in the league, but he is still a step below the likes of Allen, Jackson, and Burrow when it comes to the best in the AFC entering 2025.
9) Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs
Grade: B
Score: 84.0
Week 16 presented a bounce-back of sorts for Patrick Mahomes, and it was much needed for the Kansas City Chiefs, as the Texans made them work hard for their victory. Mahomes has only had three games grade better this year than his performance on Saturday, which is remarkable when you consider he could barely walk six days earlier.
He was good in clutch spots and backed that up by converting on 54.5% of third-down opportunities. He finished with a 0.3 EPA/DB on the week, thanks to an impressive 0.28 EPA/DB when pressured.
This whole season has been somewhat weird for Mahomes, who has posted a similar QB+ over the last two seasons. However, the Chiefs won the Super Bowl last year and are well on the way to clinching the top seed in the AFC, so it is hard to complain too much. When you watch the games, it is clear Mahomes is not playing to the level from earlier in his career, and it reflects in the Chiefs’ unconvincing wins they have strung together.
The biggest concern in Mahomes’ numbers this season has been a 0.24 EPA/DB from a clean pocket, which ranks 17th in the league. The other numbers are good without being special, and his 11 interceptions are among the worst in the league. He has relied on a lot of help after the catch, ranking seventh in YAC/Cp at 5.9, but it seems to be working in key spots with a 48.3% third-down conversion rate.
10) Derek Carr, New Orleans Saints
Grade: B
Score: 83.6
The New Orleans Saints keenly felt Derek Carr’s absence in the first half. However, Spencer Rattler gave them some fire in the second half, and with the Saints’ season virtually over, you have to question the merits of bringing Carr back.
If his season were to be over, then this would have been a promising one for the veteran. Despite the turmoil around the team, 2024 has been Carr’s best year in New Orleans. He currently ranks 11th in EPA/DB (0.11) and is 12th when working under pressure (-0.20 EPA/DB). Carr is also 10th when it comes to his TD/INT rate (3.0) and inside the top 10 for nYPA, albeit with a ninth-ranked 5.8 YAC/Cp.
11) Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Grade: B
Score: 83.1
Well, that was all very disappointing from the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as they gave up control of the NFC South to the Atlanta Falcons. Mayfield has now graded out with a C- or below in three of the last six weeks, demonstrating the inconsistency that has always stopped him from taking a step into the next echelon of NFL quarterbacks.
His performance in the fourth quarter and inside the opposing half were both troublesome this week, as he finished with just a 0.03 EPA/DB overall and a 0.19 EPA/DB from a clean pocket. This performance dropped him back outside the top 10 for the season, and he ranks 12th over the last four weeks.
Mayfield continues to struggle when pressured, with a -0.37 EPA/DB on the season (22nd). He continues to be strong on third downs, converting 45.2% of the time (fourth), and he’s 11th when it comes to nYPA (7.3). However, he has been getting a lot of help after the catch, ranking fifth in YAC/Cp at 6.2.
12) Sam Darnold, Minnesota Vikings
Grade: B-
Score: 81.2
It was yet another solid performance from Sam Darnold in Week 16, emphasizing his place as an above-average but not spectacular quarterback in these rankings. As with many of Darnold’s performances, there is not much to get excited about or to pick apart. He did struggle on third downs, converting just 25% of the time, but that is not indicative of a wider problem as it was just his second below-average performance in 10 weeks.
We have seen some up-and-down performances in recent weeks, but Darnold ranks 11th in the last four weeks. For the season as a whole, his best trait has been his 7.5 nYPA, which ranks sixth, despite getting just 4.7 YAC/Cp, which ranks 33rd. He is also converting third downs at a 39.9% rate (13th), while his EPA/DB numbers are all above average for the league this season.
13) Russell Wilson, Pittsburgh Steelers
Grade: B-
Score: 80.4
Russell Wilson has now had a run of deteriorating performances in the last few weeks. His D-graded performance in Week 16 was the second worst of the year, behind only his Week 11 game against the same Ravens’ defense.
Wilson made a string of questionable decisions during this game, including a fumble inside the Ravens’ half and a costly pick-six late in the game. Accordingly, his clutch score was woeful and would have been the worst in the database if Jackson had not done worse in the same game. Wilson finished Week 16 with a -0.27 EPA/DB overall and a -0.94 EPA/DB when pressured.
It is somewhat of a shame because Wilson had been solid overall since taking over as the starter. He has a 7.4 nYPA but has relied heavily on a 5.5 YAC/Cp number, which ranks 13th. Wilson has avoided mistakes with a 3.8 TD/INT rate, but he’s not necessarily making the most difficult throws.
His overall numbers are good, but they have been inflated by some soft matchups. Serious questions remain about whether Wilson can elevate this team in big games against other playoff teams. We should find out in games against the Chiefs and Bengals with the AFC North on the line.
14) Jordan Love, Green Bay Packers
Grade: C
Score: 81.0
It was a strange game for Jordan Love on Monday Night Football because, for the most part, he was not actually asked to do anything to beat the Indianapolis Colts. His stats do not scream 34-0, with a 57.1% completion rate, 182 passing yards, a 0.06 EPA/DB, and just 6.5 nYPA. He actually finished with a higher YAC/Cp (7.1) than nYPA. This is no real shame on Love, it just simply isn’t the QB performance you associate with a dominant win.
Making plays when under pressure has been a solid element of Love’s game this year. He ranks seventh in the league at -0.13 EPA/DB, which has helped take him to 10th in overall EPA/DB (0.12). It was no major surprise to see him getting a lot of yards after the catch, as his 6.4 YAC/Cp ranks fourth this year and has helped him to a third-ranked 8.0 nYPA.
15) Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals
Grade: C+
Score: 78.4
It was another frustrating week for the Arizona Cardinals, who have now lost four out of five since their bye week. Kyler Murray put in another less-than-convincing performance, with his C-grade being his second-best in that spell but still far from what the team needs from him.
Murray’s biggest struggles this week came in the form of a 5.5 nYPA and a -0.57 EPA/DB when pressured. That is somewhat unusual, given that he has been solid when pressured for the most part this year, ranking 13th at -0.23 EPA/DB. His numbers when pressured have been trending down, and it has come at the worst possible time and has seen the Cardinals drop out of playoff contention.
16) Justin Fields, Pittsburgh Steelers
Grade: C+
Score: 78.1
It was a brave call from the Pittsburgh Steelers to bench Justin Fields after a 4-2 start to the season. Fields was having his career-best season in Pittsburgh, but the bar was low, and the numbers do not suggest he should have unquestioningly remained the starter.
There was a lot of promise about what Fields was doing, including ranking 10th when throwing under pressure and converting on third downs. He wasn’t particularly performing badly at anything other than nYPA (ranks 29th at 6.1).
Fields did not hurt the Steelers and is a fine fill-in starter, but Wilson still offers Pittsburgh more upside in the passing game.
17) Geno Smith, Seattle Seahawks
Grade: C+
Score: 77.0
The story with Geno Smith is largely of the rinse-and-repeat variety. Rarely does he hurt the Seattle Seahawks, but rarely does he elevate this team to a point that you believe they are legitimate Super Bowl contenders. Sam Howell highlighted the potential pitfalls of moving on from Smith in his cameo appearance, but it would be somewhat intriguing to see what this team looks like with a little more variance in terms of quarterback outcomes.
Week 16 saw another solid but not great performance from Smith as the Seahawks lost in a close game against the Vikings. He now has 14 of his 16 games graded between a C- and a C+, with one above and one below. He finished with good clutch numbers, but the consistency over the whole game was not there. His overall EPA/DB was just 0.03, and his third-down conversion rate was 20%.
This game was different for Smith because we did not see the wide splits in his play from a clean pocket versus his play under pressure. Smith ranks 24th when pressured (-0.39 EPA/DB) and eighth from a clean pocket (0.29 EPA/DB). In many ways, that is typical of his play style, where he is comfortable doing the bread and butter of the position but struggles when he has to make critical, game-defining plays.
18) Drake Maye, New England Patriots
Grade: C
Score: 76.6
Sunday saw Drake Maye further demonstrate that the New England Patriots have found a good thing with his best performance of the season in terms of QB+. Maye was exceptional on third downs, converting 70% of them, which is a far cry from his 32.2% conversion rate entering the week.
He was also relatively good when pressured, finishing with a -0.11 EPA/DB while posting a 7.0 nYPA. All of these little improvements are promising to see for Maye, who has one of the worst supporting casts in the entire NFL when you consider his weapons and offensive line.
Whenever you watch Maye or look at his statistics, you wonder what he will look like with a better cast around him on the field. His numbers on the season have been fine, with a 0.05 EPA/DB ranking 17th. His 6.3 nYPA and 36.1% third-down rate leave a lot to be improved upon, but there is a solid foundation here.
19) Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers
Grade: C
Score: 76.3
Justin Herbert stepped up big in prime time to put his team on the verge of clinching a playoff spot. He had been trending down in the weeks leading into the game and appeared injured. However, he was impressive on a short week against a very good Broncos defense.
Week 16 was actually Herbert’s best performance of the season, just one week after his worst. He was very good across the board, finishing with a 0.49 EPA/DB, a 60% third-down conversion rate, and 8.5 nYPA. He was equally as good when pressured as he was from a clean pocket and posted a 0.62 EPA/DB in the fourth quarter when his team needed him to step up.
Herbert’s season-long numbers are mostly pretty underwhelming for a player of his natural talent. He is not inside the top 15 in many statistics, ranking 14th in nYPA (7.0) and second in TD/INT rate (6.0), thanks in large part to only throwing three interceptions this season.
20) Aaron Rodgers, New York Jets
Grade: C
Score: 73.2
Aaron Rodgers was back to normal in Week 16, posting a grade between a C- and a C+ for the eighth time this season. The biggest concern will be a -0.00 EPA/DB from a clean pocket, which continues a trend that has seen him rank 34th in that category this season (0.11 EPA/DB).
Rodgers was good when pressured, with an EPA/DB of 0.41, but he struggled in the fourth quarter, posting a -1.69 EPA/DB. He also finished with a 5.9 nYPA, which is largely in line with his 6.1 number this season, which ranks 29th overall.
This game was very much typical of Rodgers’ season but just with an overperformance when pressured. However, EPA/DB when pressured can be highly impacted by just a couple of plays and is rarely sustainable at such extreme numbers week-to-week.
21) Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams
Grade: C-
Score: 72.1
Matthew Stafford has had a pretty solid run in recent weeks, ranking ninth over the last four weeks, thanks in large part to an A-grade performance back in Week 14. Stafford’s performance this week was nothing to be too excited about, grading as a C, with a 0.08 EPA/DB overall and just 5.8 nYPA.
Interestingly, he was reasonably good on third downs (42.9%), which compares very well to Stafford’s struggles all year, ranking 38th with a 30.0% conversion rate. Stafford was good in the fourth quarter this season, with a 0.41 EPA/DB, and that is an area he ranks fifth in the league this season (0.32).
Stafford’s numbers were fairly similar relatively to the mean from a clean pocket versus when pressured this week. He has tended to play better compared to the average from a clean pocket this season, with a 0.34 EPA/DB (fifth) and a -0.49 EPA/DB (34th) when pressured.
22) Kirk Cousins, Atlanta Falcons
Grade: C-
Score: 71.7
The Atlanta Falcons made the decision to bench Kirk Cousins entering Week 16 after he ranked 28th in the league over the proceeding four weeks. Cousins has struggled when operating under pressure and in clutch spots all season, with a -0.44 EPA/DB when pressured. His nYPA of 7.3 ranks ninth, but he’s also 11th in YAC/Cp at 5.6.
Cousins’ clean pocket numbers are solid (0.28 EPA/DB), but he’s converting just 34.1% of his third-down opportunities this season (ranks 29th) and has a -0.44 EPA/DB when pressured (27th).
Michael Penix Jr.’s first start in the NFL was a mixed one in terms of the metrics. In many ways, kicking off your career by being average is a positive, as we have seen many quarterbacks start off badly. Among the rookies to take the field this year, Penix’s QB+ of 74.4 ranks third in terms of first starts, just narrowly behind Maye (74.6) and Daniels (75.3). However, he was well ahead of the first starts from Nix (63.8), Rattler (63.3), and Williams (59.5).
Of course, when we compare Penix to those other rookies, he has had the advantage of sitting for the first 15 weeks and learning the offense. Nix, Williams, and Daniels were pushed into action in Week 1, while Maye started quicker than the Patriots first planned.
Penix also had some extended opportunities in training camp and preseason, with the Falcons taking things slowly in terms of bringing Kirk Cousins back. Therefore, Penix was likely set in a relatively nice position for his first start.
The metrics this week were largely pretty average for Penix:
- 7.5 nYPA
- 45.5% third-down rate
- 0.36 EPA/DB clean pocket
- -0.39 EPA/DB pressure
- 0.16 EPA/DB overall
However, we should note that, within those numbers, Penix has been credited with an interception on a pass to Kyle Pitts, where the tight end essentially fumbled the ball into the hands of a defensive back. The turnover technically counts against Penix, but no blame should lie at his feet.
That play alone contributed a -4.20 EPA. Penix finished the game with a 5.59 EPA across all his plays, so without that play, he could have finished with an EPA above 10, which would have ranked in the top 10 in the league this week.
Penix’s 45.5% third-down conversion rate was the fourth-best by any Falcons QB in a game this season (and best since Week 8). Penix averaged 0.24 EPA per play on third downs and -0.08 EPA per play on first/second downs (the first- and second-down numbers include that -4.2 EPA on the interception).
23) Mason Rudolph, Tennessee Titans
Grade: C-
Score: 70.1
After a good performance in Week 15, Mason Rudolph regressed back to his previous level when starting in Week 16. His D+ grade was his third-worst of the season, as he struggled with a 0.1 EPA/DB from a clean pocket and a 0.03 EPA/DB overall.
Rudolph has been pretty good at making plays under pressure this season. He did so again this week with a -0.19 EPA/DB, and after Sunday’s exploits, he ranks ninth in the league (-0.19). However, his play from a clean pocket continues to raise some eyebrows, ranking 37th at 0.05 EPA/DB.
Rudolph’s overall numbers are pretty mediocre, but he’s been a key part of two of the Tennessee Titans’ three wins this season.
24) Joe Flacco, Indianapolis Colts
Grade: D+
Score: 69.8
The decision to bench Anthony Richardson for Joe Flacco earlier this season was bold and probably a little desperate for the Indianapolis Colts. This team isn’t good enough that a game-manager-style QB like Flacco at this stage of his career could marshall them on a deep run. The fact he struggled through his first two weeks as the full-time starter should hopefully end any discussion of him starting again this season.
Flacco’s overall performance this year is significantly below last year’s, and his last two starts were very poor when it comes to making plays and protecting the ball. He currently ranks as the worst quarterback in the NFL when throwing under pressure (-0.68 EPA/DB) and is also last in YAC/Cp (3.8).
Flacco had been doing well on third downs (46%, third) and from a clean pocket (0.28 EPA/DB, 12th), but his overall play was simply not good enough to justify his continued starting.
25) Bo Nix, Denver Broncos
Grade: D+
Score: 69.6
It is getting harder and harder to make a convincing case that Bo Nix should be the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year. His expectations were lower, and his production has been impressive relative to those expectations, but so has Daniels. Nix has only had one game with a grade above a C+ and four below a C- in 15 starts this season.
The most frustrating part of Nix’s play in Week 16 was his -0.42 EPA/DB in the fourth quarter, which ranked in the bottom 10 for the week. He was relatively good from a clean pocket, with an EPA/DB of 0.46, finishing the game with an EPA/DB of 0.22 overall. His 36.4% third-down conversion rate and 6.1 nYPA were not ideal, but they were not a disaster either.
Nix ranks 22nd across the last four weeks, well below Daniels and Maye over the same period. On the season, Nix ranks 28th from a clean pocket (0.14) and 29th when pressured (-0.44), while his nYPA of 6.0 is only 0.5 yards above his YAC/Cp number on the year (5.5).
It is easy to see why Denver Broncos fans are excited. Nix offers them a lot of promise, but any talk of Offensive Rookie of the Year is largely because we held Nix to a lower expectation level from Day 1. All being equal, it is hard to make much of a case that Nix should win the award over Daniels.
26) C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans
Grade: D+
Score: 69.6
It’s now 11 straight games without C.J. Stroud grading out above a C. Over the last four weeks, Stroud ranks 27th among 34 qualified quarterbacks, with the Houston Texans riding their defense to clinch the division in Week 15. We saw flashes from Stroud in Week 16, but it was mixed in with too many mistakes.
This week, Stroud was really let down in the fourth quarter, with a -0.37 EPA/DB when the Texans needed him to come to the fore. He did convert 45.8% of his third-down opportunities, but he ended the game with just 5.8 nYPA and a relatively mediocre 0.21 EPA/DB from a clean pocket.
His play under pressure was one of his best of the season (-0.03 EPA/DB), but it was not enough to get a win against a potential AFC playoff opponent.
Stroud’s season numbers are not great, but they are not a disaster either. He ranks closer to the middle of the pack in many statistics. The trouble is that he has excelled at very little, with a -0.01 EPA/DB (25th), a 35.6% third-down conversion rate (27th), and 6.3 nYPA (24th).
The level of Stroud’s play this season should be a concern for Houston heading into the playoffs. This ranking and breakdown are not here to suggest he should not be a starter going forward, but when you compare him to the likes of Allen, Jackson, and Mahomes, he remains some distance from the very best in the conference.
Of course, he is only in his second year, so there is plenty of room to grow, but it is hard to see Houston making a deep run with his current play.
27) Aidan O’Connell, Las Vegas Raiders
Grade: D+
Score: 67.7
Aidan O’Connell returns to these rankings after hitting the 150-pass attempt threshold — and does so with a very mixed game. He was superb in the fourth quarter, with an EPA/DB of 0.57, but he struggled from a clean pocket at 0.24 EPA/DB. Other than not throwing for a touchdown, the rest of his numbers this week were largely middling.
O’Connell has been far from convincing this season, ranking second from last in terms of third-down conversion at 28.3%. He has generally been in the lower half of most statistics, ranking 22nd in overall EPA/DB (0.02) and 27th in nYPA (6.2). However, he has been relatively successful when pressured, with an EPA/DB of -0.25.
We have yet to see anything from O’Connell that would suggest he should be a starter in 2025. However, he is still performing slightly better than Gardner Minshew did this season.
28) Jameis Winston, Cleveland Browns
Grade: D
Score: 66.4
If you were among the people calling for Jameis Winston over Deshaun Watson, you weren’t wrong. But it’s also clear that Winston is not the Cleveland Browns’ long-term answer.
Winston has been all over the place this year, with three games grading as a D or below and four games grading as a C or above.
It’s not a major surprise that Winston was benched after Week 15 when he threw three interceptions and had just 4.4 nYPA despite getting 6.3 YAC/Cp. He at least completed 64.0% of his passes to the right team (76% if you count the actual ones that were caught by someone) and converted on 37.5% of his third-down attempts.
Winston’s numbers over the last four weeks of starting ranked him 30th among 33 qualified QBs, and his overall EPA/DB (-0.07) ranks 33rd among 41 qualified QBs this season. He was particularly bad when throwing under pressure in his time on the field so far, ranking 39th (-0.54).
Dorian Thompson-Robinson was not much better in his first start in Week 16, but he deserves a few games to see if he can improve.
29) Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys
Grade: D
Score: 66.3
Based on Dak Prescott’s performances this year, it’s a wonder if there was an underlying health issue all season. He will miss the rest of the season after undergoing surgery, which may be a blessing in disguise.
This has been Prescott’s worst season since 2019 by a considerable distance. He struggled in all aspects, sitting just outside the bottom 10 in passing from a clean pocket and when pressured. He also struggled on third downs this year, which is unusual for Prescott and the Dallas Cowboys’ offense.
Overall, this is such an odd year. It’s hard to know if it’s meaningful or just an aberration.
30) Mac Jones, Jacksonville Jaguars
Grade: D
Score: 65.9
Mac Jones has not been a complete disaster over the last four weeks. It perhaps says a lot about how bad Trevor Lawrence was this season that Jones is above him in these rankings despite not playing great. Since coming on the field in Week 13, he has consistently graded between a C- and C+ in each of his four games.
In Week 16, many of the numbers stand out for the wrong reason, with a -1.05 EPA/DB when pressured and a -0.15 EPA/DB overall. He was solid on third downs (38.5%) and performed adequately in nYPA (6.1), but this week continued the trend of solid — without really impressing — play from Jones.
With a handful of starts now under his belt this season, Jones ranks 37th when pressured (-0.54 EPA/DB) and 36th in nYPA (5.7). He is converting third downs at a 39.7% rate, which is more than respectable, but he has fairly poor numbers in clutch situations. Nothing Jones has done so far has made a case he should rejoin the starting QB club in 2025.
31) Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars
Grade: D
Score: 65.2
Lawrence’s 2024 season is over after he was placed on IR ahead of Week 14 following a brutal hit from Azeez Al-Shaair in Week 13. Also dealing with a non-throwing shoulder injury, it was a smart decision with the Jaguars officially eliminated from playoff contention.
Lawrence didn’t qualify for a grade in Week 13 before leaving the field, but things didn’t look overly pretty with Jacksonville’s offense. It was a brave decision to try and come back with the Jaguars’ season having slim hopes of producing something worthwhile.
Lawrence struggled when under pressure this season (33rd) and ranks 37th converting on third downs. His other numbers aren’t that bad, but the cumulative impact is that his grade is on track to be the second-worst of his career, ahead of just his rookie season.
32) Andy Dalton, Carolina Panthers
Grade: D
Score: 65.1
It may have been controversial, but it’s hard not to believe that the Carolina Panthers made the right decision at the time to go to Andy Dalton. They had to see whether their team had any chance of being competitive with a more calming influence under center.
But once that answer obviously became a no, the logical decision had to be to give Bryce Young an extended time in Dave Canales’ system.
Dalton started off strongly with a B grade in that first week, but his highest grade after that was a C+. He struggled when passing from a clean pocket and when under pressure. Dalton did well in some clutch situations but ultimately could not deliver on the rare occasions when the game was on the line in the fourth quarter.
33) Daniel Jones, Minnesota Vikings
Grade: D
Score: 64.8
Daniel Jones’ time with the New York Giants came to a strange but inevitable end, and he’s now in Minnesota, backing up Darnold from the practice squad.
Jones has been pretty much bad at everything this season, and at this stage in his career, there’s not much positive that we can seek. The sad part is that this won’t even be Jones’ worst season as a starter in his career, with his 2021 season still having a lower QB+ score.
It’s hard to imagine Jones getting much opportunity in Minnesota unless we see an injury to Darnold. Even then, we may see Nick Mullens get the first shot at a starting role, at least until Jones is up to speed with the system.
34) Caleb Williams, Chicago Bears
Grade: D
Score: 63.9
Week 16 brought Caleb Williams’ best performance since the Chicago Bears’ Week 7 bye. It was his third-best performance of the season, and Chicago will be hoping it is the start of a strong finish for the rookie. His B- was just his third grade of that level or above all season.
Williams finished Week 16 with a -0.61 EPA/DB when pressured, an area he has struggled with all season. He ranks 32nd in EPA/DB when pressured at -0.47, which has left him with an overall EPA/DB for the season of -0.04 (30th). He was excellent from a clean pocket this week, finishing with a 0.81 EPA/DB, but remains essentially league-average in that metric this season.
Williams converted just 22.2% of his third downs, continuing a troubling trend on that front, as he ranks 39th on the season at 29.0%. He at least had a good return in terms of nYPA (8.1). That has been another area he has struggled this season, ranking 37th in nYPA at 5.7 with a YAC/Cp number of 5.3 on the season.
After all the hype to start this season, this has been extremely underwhelming from Williams and the Bears. Hopefully, this was the start of an uptick under the head coaching tenure of Thomas Brown, but Williams’ up-and-down performances are concerning heading into another offseason of uncertainty.
35) Bryce Young, Carolina Panthers
Grade: D-
Score: 63.1
It was yet another good performance from Bryce Young relative to his career so far, as he posted his second C+ grade of the season in Week 16. This was actually Young’s best performance of the 2024 season, and we saw the makings of a quarterback with some upside.
His only really negative statistic this week was a 5.7 nYPA figure, but it was surrounded by a lot of good. He was impressive in clutch spots, converted on 46.2% of third downs, and finished with a 0.21 EPA/DB, including a 0.46 EPA/DB from clean pockets.
Young did reasonably well when pressured relative to the league this week (-0.24), and it’s an area he’s been reasonably good at this year. He ranks 15th in EPA/DB when pressured (-0.25), which is significantly higher compared to the rest of the NFL than in other statistics. He is 35th in EPA/DB from a clean pocket (-0.03) and is 34th in overall EPA/DB (-0.08).
Some other concerning numbers for Young are that he is converting just 30.7% of third downs (36th) this year, has 5.6 nYPA (38th), and has a 1.1 touchdown-to-interception ratio (35th). He’s completing just 60.2% of his passes (39th) and averages 162.4 passing yards per game (37th).
Recent performances have indicated that he has a chance to be a starter in 2025 and has shown some developmental potential here. Dave Canales’ decision to bench him at the start of the season looks to have been a smart call after he struggled so much in those early weeks.
36) Cooper Rush, Dallas Cowboys
Grade: D-
Score: 62.5
It has taken a while, but Cooper Rush has crept out of the F grades and into the realm of a D-. He has done that with solid play over the last five weeks, with only one bad performance in that stretch. Week 16 saw Rush finish with 8.2 nYPA, which was an impressive number. Everything else was largely league-average, which for Rush is slightly above average.
There is certainly no reason at this point to think this is anything more than Rush earning a backup role somewhere next season. His overall EPA/DB of -0.04 ranks 29th and is 38th when pressured (-0.54). Rush is converting on just 33.7% of third downs (31st) and has a nYPA of 5.7 (35th), which is just 0.6 ahead of his 5.1 YAC/Cp.
37) Will Levis, Tennessee Titans
Grade: D-
Score: 61.6
Levis looks set to finish with a D- grade (regressing from his D+ grade as a rookie) for the 2024 season, which puts his career as a starter in Tennessee in significant doubt.
When you look at the full season, Levis ranks 39th in EPA/DB from a clean pocket (0.02), 31st when pressured (-0.47), and 39th overall (-0.17). He’s been awful with the game on the line in the fourth quarter and has thrown the same number of interceptions as he has passing touchdowns.
There’s very little in his numbers right now that suggests the Tennessee Titans should not be looking elsewhere for a starting quarterback in 2025.
38) Gardner Minshew II, Las Vegas Raiders
Grade: D-
Score: 61.3
Gardner Minshew II’s season is over due to a collarbone injury, and in some ways, this prevents a QB controversy in Las Vegas. O’Connell deserved to start and be fully evaluated in the final six games to decide how the Raiders should proceed at the position.
Minshew had his best performance of the season in Week 11. He graded 24th over his last four weeks, so there was not much room for a drop-off in production with O’Connell taking over.
Minshew was a below-average QB in all metrics during his time as the starter and was benched multiple times this season.
39) Anthony Richardson, Indianapolis Colts
Grade: D-
Score: 60.4
The Colts are in somewhat of a pickle as they head towards the back end of Richardson’s second NFL season. Richardson is still a rookie in terms of games played, but the Colts will be facing a decision on his fifth-year option soon enough.
At this point, that is extremely unlikely, with Richardson grading out above just three other qualified quarterbacks this season.
Richardson actually did not post a QB+ in Week 16, as he did not throw 15 passes. The flow of the game meant that he only needed to throw 11, completing seven for 131 yards with a touchdown and an interception. He added 70 yards and a rushing touchdown on nine carries but largely played second fiddle to the excellence of Jonathan Taylor.
The season-long numbers are still a concern for Richardson — not many quarterbacks have a lower EPA/DB than Richardson’s -0.13. He ranks inside the bottom 12 in EPA/DB from a clean pocket or when pressured, and his 31.2% third-down conversion rate is 35th.
Richardson’s TD/INT rate is 0.7, and he has nearly as many rushing touchdowns (six) as he does passing (eight).
Hopefully, Richardson can make a jump in his third year. Although, after missing most of his rookie season, 2025 will feel more like a second year for the young quarterback.
40) Jacoby Brissett, New England Patriots
Grade: F
Score: 54.9
It’s easy to see why the decision was made to bench Brissett. He hadn’t posted a grade above a C this year. Overall, he ranks in the bottom 10 when throwing under pressure (35th) and from a clean pocket (36th) this season.
Brissett’s nYPA of 4.5 is in the bottom two, and his clutch performances rank in the bottom 10. Even his 32.9% third-down conversion rate is just inside the bottom 10 and well inside the bottom half.
Brissett was meant to be the bridge to Maye, but he’s now slotted into a backup role that he’ll be familiar with. He may still get the odd opportunity, but there won’t be much excitement.
41) Spencer Rattler, New Orleans Saints
Grade: F
Score: 49.4
There is not much to be gained by being negative about Spencer Rattler after just a handful of games. He did not get much training camp time with Derek Carr as the expected starter, and it has been a messy, inconsistent season for the rookie.
His Week 16 start was a bad one, finishing with a -0.33 EPA/DB, thanks in large part to a -0.28 EPA/DB from a clean pocket. He had just 4.3 nYPA and 4.0 YAC/Cp, as he finished with a 50% completion rate, 153 passing yards, and a 30% conversion rate on third downs.
Rattler’s season numbers are not pretty. He is dead last in EPA/DB at -0.42, and he’s in the bottom two playing from a clean pocket (-0.13) and under pressure (-0.56). His nYPA number of 5.1 ranks 40th, and he is last when it comes to third-down conversions (26.1%).
Hopefully, he will have time during his career to improve on these performances. This has been a really hard start to his young career.
42) Deshaun Watson, Cleveland Browns
Grade: F
Score: 45.0
Watson’s on-field troubles in 2024 officially ended after he tore his Achilles. But if Cousins’ timeline is anything to go by, it will be intriguing to see how things shake out over the offseason, as Watson could be ready for the 2025 season.
Watson ranks in the bottom five for nearly all of the metrics we look at, including third-down conversion rate, nYPA, passing from a clean pocket, and passing when under pressure. It’s hard to imagine how he’ll start again in 2025.