Former Cincinnati Bengals RB Joe Mixon was a cut candidate ahead of last season. He wound up remaining with the Bengals and posted his third consecutive RB1 season. This year, rumors of his release came to fruition. But rather than cutting him outright, the Bengals traded him to the Houston Texans. Is this move good for Mixon’s fantasy football value? Should managers take him in Best Ball drafts?
Joe Mixon’s 2024 Fantasy Outlook
The vaunted 2017 running back class is getting old. This will be Mixon’s eighth season in the NFL. If he’s a quality fantasy option, he will become the first running back drafted since 2010 to be fantasy-relevant for eight seasons. The life of a running back is short.
Investing in Mixon in 2024 is going to battle against multiple historical precedents. The vast majority of RB1s and RB2s come from players younger than Mixon who are on their first NFL team.
While always useful, Mixon has never been an elite fantasy asset. He’s given fantasy managers four RB1 seasons in his career but never exceeded 18.0 fantasy points per game.
By no means am I trying to diminish what Mixon has accomplished. However, fantasy managers were hoping, if not expecting, a 20-points-per-game season at some point. Suffice to say, it’s not going to happen now.
Outside of a freak injury in 2020, Mixon has been quite durable throughout his career. He missed 10 games in 2020 but has only missed seven games in his other seven seasons.
Last season, Mixon played in all 17 games. Even at 28 years old, I am not concerned about Mixon’s health. What I am concerned about is his efficiency.
Mixon averaged 15.7 fantasy points per game last season. He was well worth his draft slot in redraft leagues. However, it was some of the least exciting RB1 production you can get.
It took Mixon seven weeks to post a single game of 20 fantasy points. He reached that threshold a total of four times during the fantasy season (with a fifth coming in Week 18).
For better or worse, Mixon’s production was largely due to volume.
His 78.9% opportunity share was third in the league. With a large workload, some inefficiency is to be expected. But there’s no real way to spin Mixon’s 4.6 yards per touch as a positive. It was 36th in the league.
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Additionally, a mere 3.1% of Mixon’s rushes went for 15+ yards, 41st in the league. His 3.2 yards created per touch ranked 35th in the NFL.
Mixon was not bad. He just wasn’t particularly great. He was the epitome of “fine.”
Should You Draft Mixon in 2024 Best Ball Leagues?
The 2024 version of Mixon is giving me significant 2023 Dalvin Cook vibes.
In 2022, Cook still looked like he had some juice left. Yet, the Minnesota Vikings cut him anyway. I don’t want to come across as advocating that fantasy managers should put blind faith in the fact that NFL front offices and coaching staffs know what they’re doing. However, who knows these players better than their own teams?
The Vikings certainly know far more about Cook than any of us possibly could. They decided he was no longer worth keeping on their roster. That has to mean something.
After latching on with the New York Jets, it took exactly one game for me to realize the Vikings cut Cook for a reason. Even with the lowest ADP of his career, Cook was one of the worst picks in all fantasy formats last season. It would be a surprise if he ever played again.
While, technically, the Bengals did not cut Mixon, they were about to. They traded him for next to nothing in a move that was more procedural than anything. We should be evaluating Mixon the same as an older running back who was cut.
With that said, there are differences between what happened with Mixon and Cook. For starters, Mixon was significantly more productive last season than Cook was in 2022.
Additionally, the fact that Cook couldn’t find a team to sign him until training camp speaks volumes. When the Texans found out the Bengals were going to cut Mixon, they made it a point not to let him hit the open market. Not only that, they immediately give Mixon a three-year extension.
A running back could rarely leave a situation like Mixon had in Cincinnati playing with Joe Burrow on a top offense featuring minimal backfield competition and still find himself in an advantageous position. Yet, that’s exactly what happened.
Mixon joins a Texans backfield that couldn’t be more bereft of talent (outside Mixon, of course). Dameon Pierce thoroughly played his way out of a job last season. After stealing Pierce’s job, Devin Singletary signed with the New York Giants. The only other back of note is Dare Ogunbowale. Perhaps he will be the third-down back, but it’s a stretch to call him a threat to Mixon’s fantasy value.
So, about those Cook vibes. I’m not nearly as concerned about Mixon completely falling off a cliff. There’s actually another player who is a good comparison to Mixon — James Conner.
Last season, despite averaging 15.4 fantasy points per game the year before and 17.2 points per game before that, fantasy managers largely wrote Conner off. He was 28 years old, historically inefficient, and in an offense many expected to be among the worst in the league. Yet, Conner had no threat to his volume and was able to average 15.5 fantasy points per game.
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Mixon is 28 years old, historically inefficient, and has no obvious threat to his volume. The main difference is he’s on an ascending offense with C.J. Stroud under center.
It’s always risky to invest in older running backs, especially ones who switch teams. However, if Mixon’s ADP remains outside the top four rounds, he sure looks like a worthwhile selection in Best Ball drafts.
