We are discussing three receivers that all have interesting profiles. Is a dynasty trade of Detroit Lions WR Jameson Williams something you need to do this offseason as he looks to bite off a bigger role?
Seattle Seahawks WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Buffalo Bills WR Khalil Shakir are also promising WRs that could take a massive step forward in 2024 — is now the time to try to acquire them?
Should You Trade Jaxon Smith-Njigba in Dynasty Fantasy Football?
The No. 20 overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, Smith-Njigba, finished his rookie season with 63 grabs for 628 yards and four touchdowns. When stacking up that stat line with others, it won’t stand out (WR56 in half-PPR points per game), but when considering the situation “JSN” stepped into, it should be viewed as a success.
JSN SZN 🔥
Jaxon Smith-Njigba scores a TD to give the #Seahawks the lead late 🤯pic.twitter.com/mzigy2JFQI
— Pro Football Network (@PFN365) October 29, 2023
With WRs DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett already on this roster, JSN ran more than 30 routes only four times. We knew the opportunity count was going to be held in check, but I was encouraged by the growth that we saw.
- Weeks 1-12: Targeted on 18.8% of routes
- Weeks 13-18: Targeted on 21.1% of routes
For the season as a whole, he was targeted on 19.6% of his routes. Again, not a number that ranks among the best in the league, but one that was more than respectable.
For reference, that rate ranked in the same neighborhood as Philadelphia Eagles WR DeVonta Smith (18.8%), Pittsburgh Steelers WR George Pickens (19.7%), and Washington Commanders WR Terry McLaurin (20.6%) — all of whom will cost you considerably more in a deal right now.
Smith-Njigba saw 77.8% of his receptions come on balls thrown less than 10 yards downfield, a number that suggests to me that the Seahawks were looking to get the ball in his hands in space.
JSN’s value, in my eyes, is higher now than it was when he got drafted. He’s a strong trade target, and it doesn’t matter if you’re positioned to compete this season or not. As he prepares for his age-22 season, we are looking at a reasonable building block for struggling teams and a Flex-ready option for those looking to win a title as soon as 2024.
Should You Trade Khalil Shakir in Dynasty Fantasy Football?
Now is the time to make a deal for Shakir … before his value spikes even further.
He caught 86% of his targets this season, nearly nine percentage points ahead of any other receiver who saw at least 50 targets.
Of course, catch rate isn’t everything. Here are the top five qualified receivers in that stat and where they finished this regular season on a per-game basis this season:
- Buffalo Bills WR Khalil Shakir: 86%
- Kansas City Chiefs WR Rashee Rice: 77.1% (WR29)
- New York Giants WR Wan’Dale Robinson: 76.9% (WR58)
- Minnesota Vikings WR Adam Thielen: 75.2% (WR27)
- Dallas Cowboys WR CeeDee Lamb: 72.7% (WR1)
An eclectic group, to say the least, but we’ve seen exceptional players do this. That has to at least be considered given the stability of this Bills offense and the upward trajectory — both in skill and role — that we have penciled in for Shakir.
Over the past decade, we’ve had four instances in which a WR had an 80% catch rate with an aDOT of at least 8.0 yards (again, minimum 50 targets):
- Buffalo Bills WR Khalil Shakir (2023)
- New Orleans Saints WR Michael Thomas (2019)
- New Orleans Saints WR Thomas (2018)
- Seattle Seahawks WR Lockett (2018)
That’s some pretty impressive company. Remember those physical limitations? If you take the averages of Thomas and Lockett, you get 6’0.5”, 197 pounds, and a 4.48-second 40-yard dash time.
Shakir checks in at 6’0”, 190 pounds, and runs a 4.43-second 40-yard dash. This serves as a nice reminder that draft grades and scouting reports are meant to capture the most likely outcomes. There are annual exceptions that are going to be missed on a spreadsheet, and Shakir might be the latest example.
Should You Trade Jameson Williams in Dynasty Fantasy Football?
We know that Williams has speed to burn and can break any game open with a single play, but could we be heading into a breakout season that sees him establish himself as a consistent lineup option?
Williams ran a route on 76.5% of Detroit’s dropbacks this postseason, a level of usage that should have you excited given his single-target upside. He caught multiple deep passes in two of those games, production down the field that should be reasonably stable if he is going to be on the field for three-quarters of the snaps.
KEEP READING: Dynasty Fantasy Football Trading Strategies That Can Win Your League
Lions WR Amon-Ra St. Brown is among the most consistent receivers in the game, and TE Sam LaPorta has a legitimate case to be TE1 in both redraft and dynasty formats, but what does the offense hold after that?
WR Josh Reynolds is an unrestricted free agent this offseason, and the depth at the position is questionable at best. Trading for Williams now is a wise move no matter the state of your roster — his youth and upside are a good fit for every team!