Buffalo Bills TE Dawson Knox’s dynasty value fell off a cliff in 2023 as the No. 25 overall pick in TE Dalton Kincaid assumed the lead role for this offense and looked good in doing it (73 catches on 91 targets).
While his position on the depth chart appears clear, is it possible that the Bills could look to utilize more two-TE sets with the state of the receiver position?
WR Stefon Diggs showed signs of aging in the second half of last season, and WR Gabe Davis is crafting goodbye messages on social media. The door would appear open to a change in overall offensive philosophy in Upstate New York.
Dawson Knox’s Dynasty Outlook
Knox was a third-round pick out of Ole Miss in 2019, but it wasn’t because of his pass-catching prowess (39 catches and zero touchdowns across his time in college). For that reason, he wasn’t on many fantasy radars initially, and with 52 receptions through his first two NFL seasons, that seemed like the right move.
Did You Know? #Bills TE Dawson Knox has scored the first touchdown for Buffalo on Wild Card Weekend four years in a row 🤯 pic.twitter.com/R5lkvoEXeN
— Pro Football Network (@PFN365) January 15, 2024
Knox’s stock, however, then took off. As QB Josh Allen developed, Knox’s number got called often in scoring situations, and that made him a more than viable option at a position that is difficult to feel good about outside of the first tier.
In 2021 and 2022, Knox joined just two other tight ends with at least 500 yards and six touchdowns — Travis Kelce and George Kittle. Nobody was ever considering him as that level of a fantasy asset, but Knox established himself as a reasonable starter that you could slide in and feel good about.
MORE: Best Ball Rankings 2024
That’s why the drafting of an uber-prospect Kincaid was so deflating. Knox had proven plenty capable of producing for us at a cheap price tag, but with a talented rookie coming to town, we all feared that those days were done.
We were right.
The Bills employed the same pass-heavy offensive structure that they had in years past, Knox just wasn’t written into the script with consistency.
- 2022: Eight games with 30+ routes run
- 2023: One game with 30+ routes run
The optimist will point to a few promising trends, but with Knox remaining under contract with Buffalo for the next three seasons, the volume of opportunities is going to remain a major concern.
- 2022: 13.8% targets per route run
- 2023: 14.9% targets per route run
- 2022: 13.8% of targets in the red zone
- 2023: 22.2% of targets in the red zone
With some positive underlying metrics and the proven ability to cash in dangerous targets, could the Bills adjust their playbook to embrace having two threats at the TE position?
Knox’s Dynasty Ranking
Where does Knox land in the dynasty TE landscape going into the 2024 offseason? Here are Soppe’s latest rankings, featuring where Knox lands compared to other top names at the position.
1) Sam LaPorta | DET
2) Trey McBride | ARI
3) George Kittle | SF
4) Mark Andrews | BAL
5) T.J. Hockenson | MIN
6) Evan Engram | JAX
7) Travis Kelce | KC
8) Jake Ferguson | DAL
9) Dalton Kincaid | BUF
10) Kyle Pitts | ATL
11) David Njoku | CLE
12) Dallas Goedert | PHI
13) Michael Mayer | LV
14) Dalton Schultz | HOU
15) Isaiah Likely | BAL
16) Darren Waller | NYG
17) Gerald Everett | LAC
18) Cole Kmet | CHI
19) Luke Musgrave | GB
20) Chigoziem Okonkwo | TEN
21) Greg Dulcich | DEN
22) Pat Freiermuth | PIT
23) Logan Thomas | WAS
24) Juwan Johnson | NO
25) Noah Fant | SEA
26) Taysom Hill | NO
27) Tucker Kraft | GB
28) Hunter Henry | NE
29) Cade Otton | TB
30) Irv Smith Jr. | CIN
31) Jelani Woods | IND
32) Tyler Higbee | LAR
33) Tyler Conklin | NYJ
34) Dawson Knox | BUF
35) Hayden Hurst | CAR
36) Mike Gesicki | NE
37) Brevin Jordan | HOU
38) Darnell Washington | PIT
39) Luke Schoonmaker | DAL
40) Donald Parham Jr. | LAC
41) Daniel Bellinger | NYG
42) Austin Hooper | LV
43) Jonnu Smith | ATL
44) Albert Okwuegbunam | PHI
45) Zach Ertz | DET
46) Adam Trautman | DEN
47) Noah Gray | KC
48) Mo Alie-Cox | IND
49) Robert Tonyan | CHI
50) Foster Moreau | NO
Should You Trade Knox in Dynasty?
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In theory, I love the idea of Buffalo increasing their two-TE set rates. As mentioned, Diggs is trending in the wrong direction, and the WR2 role is up in the air. The problem is that in the limited sample size that we got last season, these formations didn’t do anything for Knox’s value.
- 0.51 yards per route run with Kincaid on the field
- 0.91 yards per route run with Kincaid off the field
It’s safe to assume that, even with an increase in usage, Knox is going to require efficiency to be a factor, and we didn’t get that when both he and Kincaid were on the field last season.
Granted, it’s a small sample (126 routes), but it’s not promising. In those instances, Knox’s aDOT (average depth of target) was 25.1% higher than when Kincaid was on the sideline, and downfield targets aren’t the path to viability for Knox.
KEEP READING: Dynasty Fantasy Football Trade Value Chart
Entering his age-27 season, Knox should still be physically able to produce, though that opportunity may only come should Kincaid suffer an injury. If there is a market for Knox, I’d take advantage — that just seems unlikely.
The move could be to hold for now and hope that there is two-TE talk out of Buffalo this summer. If that’s the case and the perception of Knox improves, I’d cash in that chip. Without those plans, he’s the type of player who can be dropped for upside at other positions.
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