Houston Texans WR Noah Brown’s dynasty value was limited during his time with the Dallas Cowboys (2017-22), but injuries opened up the opportunity for him to impress with the Texans, and he took advantage (17.2 yards per catch).
As he is slated to hit free agency ahead of his age-28 season, should Brown be viewed as a viable fantasy football option if given the opportunity, or were his splash plays from 2023 more the result of right-place, right-time?
Noah Brown’s Dynasty Outlook
Injuries to WRs Nico Collins and Tank Dell throughout last season allowed Brown to step into a valuable role in a pass-heavy offense that was riding an Offensive Rookie of the Year season from QB C.J. Stroud.
#NFL receiving yards leaders in Week 9:
1️⃣ CeeDee Lamb, #Cowboys – 191
2️⃣ Noah Brown, #Texans – 153
3️⃣ Amari Cooper, #Browns – 139
4️⃣ Dalton Schultz, #Texans – 130
5️⃣ Tank Dell, #Texans – 114@PFNFantasy's Week 10 waiver-wire rankings: https://t.co/HSyw8F7DvE#PFN365 pic.twitter.com/c2O68vOi30— Pro Football Network (@PFN365) November 7, 2023
Brown had back-to-back-to-back-to-back games with a catch gaining more than 30 yards, a big-play upside that he has shown some small signs of owning. His role was limited in Dallas, but his yards per catch have increased each season.
His stock moving forward is likely to hinge on the playcalling stylings of his future employer.
Brown is a nice player, but he’s yet to establish himself as a volume target earner, and it seems unlikely that his future role would put him in a position to see 7+ targets consistently.
If that’s going to be the case, his downfield skills need to be leveraged by his new team. In 2023, the Texans ranked second in team aDOT (average depth of target). Here’s a look at the top five (excluding the Texans) offenses last season by that measure.
1. Tennessee Titans
2. Buffalo Bills
3. Philadelphia Eagles
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
5. Green Bay Packers
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In theory, those are positive situations, while these bottom-five aDOT offenses showed us less aggression in 2023 and could tank the weekly viability of a player like Brown.
28. Seattle Seahawks
29. Detroit Lions
30. New York Jets
31. Kansas City Chiefs
32. Cincinnati Bengals
There are some interesting options in both lists, and that makes Brown’s value, at this moment, a little difficult to evaluate.
Brown’s Dynasty Ranking
Where does Brown land in the dynasty WR landscape going into the 2024 offseason? Here are Soppe’s latest rankings, featuring where Brown lands in comparison to other top names at the position.
1) Ja’Marr Chase | CIN
2) Justin Jefferson | MIN
3) Tyreek Hill | MIA
4) CeeDee Lamb | DAL
5) Amon-Ra St. Brown | DET
6) A.J. Brown | PHI
7) Garrett Wilson | NYJ
8) Jaylen Waddle | MIA
9) Chris Olave | NO
10) Tee Higgins | CIN
11) Brandon Aiyuk | SF
12) Puka Nacua | LAR
13) DJ Moore | CHI
14) Nico Collins | HOU
15) Rashee Rice | KC
16) Michael Pittman Jr. | IND
17) Amari Cooper | CLE
18) Cooper Kupp | LAR
19) DeVonta Smith | PHI
20) DK Metcalf | SEA
21) Zay Flowers | BAL
22) Drake London | ATL
23) Jaxon Smith-Njigba | SEA
24) Davante Adams | LV
25) Mike Evans | TB
26) Tank Dell | HOU
27) Jayden Reed | GB
28) Deebo Samuel | SF
29) Calvin Ridley | JAX
30) Stefon Diggs | BUF
31) Jordan Addison | MIN
32) Keenan Allen | LAC
33) Terry McLaurin | WAS
34) George Pickens | PIT
35) Chris Godwin | TB
36) Josh Downs | IND
37) Gabe Davis | BUF
38) Michael Wilson | ARI
39) Jameson Williams | DET
40) Elijah Moore | CLE
41) Romeo Doubs | GB
42) Jerry Jeudy | DEN
43) Christian Kirk | JAX
44) Diontae Johnson | PIT
45) DeAndre Hopkins | TEN
46) Khalil Shakir | BUF
47) Joshua Palmer | LAC
48) Jahan Dotson | WAS
49) Courtland Sutton | DEN
50) Jakobi Meyers | LV
51) Treylon Burks | TEN
52) Christian Watson | GB
53) Marquise Brown | ARI
54) Mike Williams | LAC
55) Tyler Lockett | SEA
56) Zay Jones | JAX
57) Jonathan Mingo | CAR
58) Quentin Johnston | LAC
59) Jalin Hyatt | NYG
60) Noah Brown | HOU
Should You Trade Brown in Dynasty?
Are you considering trading Brown? Our free PFN Trade Analyzer allows you to find the best trade offer to make in seconds!
Last season, Brown averaged 6.8 yards after the catch and a 12.0 aDOT. Among receivers with at least 50 targets, that ranked him fifth in YAC and 29th in aDOT, a versatile skill set that you would think positions him to pay off for his fantasy managers.
In 2023, he was one of eight receivers in the 5.5/10.5 club (YAC/aDOT). If you’re expecting a list of nothing but fantasy excellence, buckle up:
- Pittsburgh Steelers WR George Pickens
- Denver Broncos WR Jerry Jeudy
- New York Giants WR Darius Slayton
- Texans WR Collins
- Bengals WR Tee Higgins
- Seahawks WR DK Metcalf
- Chicago Bears WR DJ Moore
Players like this have a wide range of outcomes, and some of their ability to be consistently useful in our game depends on the stability of their offense as a whole. That makes Brown a situational buy in the trade market at best.
It’s hard to imagine him joining an offense that is structured the way of the 2023 Texans, but there are a few suitors who could offer him a greater role.
In a vacuum, I’m more likely than not to try to cash in the Brown chip, but again, it depends on the status of your roster.
MORE: Dynasty Fantasy Football Trade Value Chart
If you are a win-now team that has a strong group of WRs, I’d hold onto a player like Brown as a lottery ticket –- if he breaks out, great, but if not, your starting roster isn’t changing in a significant way.
If you’re looking to build a strong foundation, I’d move on from a player with a profile like that of Brown to get younger at the receiver position.
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