Three days removed from one of the most exciting Super Bowls in history, both the San Francisco 49ers and Kansas City Chiefs are sticking by their decisions in just the second overtime period in history.
Soon after Patrick Mahomes led a game-winning touchdown drive on the second possession of OT, 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan was drilled by the media, asking why he decided to take the ball instead of deferring. Shanahan has stuck to his guns and his initial answer.
“We talked through it and the analytics with those guys. We decided we wanted the ball third. If both teams scored, we wanted that opportunity,” said Shanahan.
Was Taking the Ball the Right Decision by the 49ers?
While it may be easy to say it’s the wrong call by San Francisco after it lost the game, many players and pundits have come out in support and defamation of the decision.
Mahomes went on air from Disneyland the day after the Super Bowl and immediately shot down Shanahan’s entire idea. “If they had scored a touchdown, we were going for two,” remarked Mahomes.
If Mahomes’ statement was more truthful than tongue-in-cheek there, it would have completely ruined Shanahan’s initial plan. And while going for two with the Super Bowl on the line instead of kicking and extending the game may seem like a tough call, Pro Football Network analyst Dallas Robinson was quick to point out that it was actually an easy decision: “Every model in the world would say go for two there.”
Moreover, while the 49ers’ initial plan and subsequent admission by Mahomes seems to set a precedent that you always take the ball second in playoff overtime football, additional data may back Shanahan.
Win Probability Says Kyle Shanahan Was Right
PFN Dolphins beat writer Adam Beasley, who was on site and covering the Chiefs all week, pointed out that the 49ers had under a 50% chance to win the game at the start of overtime.
However, when the Niners converted on Jake Moody’s field goal to take the lead, their win probability spiked to nearly 75%.
Now, you can really never bet against Mahomes at this point, but on the Chiefs’ fourth-down conversion attempt, San Fran’s win chance was up over 87%.
Not bad odds of winning a Super Bowl, just not when you’re playing against Andy Reid, Travis Kelce, Mahomes, and the Chiefs.
Chiefs Still in Shock by Call
On his “New Heights” podcast with his brother Jason, Kelce admitted that he could not believe that San Francisco chose to take the ball at the start.
“You win the coin toss, you get the opportunity to have the advantage … and they just handed it right to us,” said Kelce.
MORE: Was the Kansas City Chiefs’ Super Bowl Run One of the Best Ever?
The thinking here is that if your defense holds, you only need a field goal to potentially win on the second drive of the game.
Turns out that even needing a field goal to tie, the Chiefs still had one more TD in Mahomes’ Super Bowl (dynasty) bag.
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