A Tyreek Hill dynasty trade? Moving on from the Miami Dolphins star receiver might not seem as crazy as it sounds given his value right now. As for veteran wide receivers like Diontae Johnson and Adam Thielen, there is a thin line to walk.
Does your specific roster need what they offer, or are you wise to cash in their chips ahead of the 2024 NFL season?
Should You Trade Tyreek Hill in Dynasty Fantasy Football?
Of course, Hill is one of the best in the game, and with the fantasy football value of receivers being what it is in dynasty formats, I understand if you’re not losing sleep at night when it comes to how you can best move on from the All-Pro.
Who should you consider trading away in your dynasty fantasy football league? 🤔 @DerekTateNFL breaks down why it's the perfect time to sell Christian McCaffrey, Tyreek Hill, D'Andre Swift and Zamir White. 👀
Full analysis on @PFNFantasy: https://t.co/iB131ebO6c#PFN365 pic.twitter.com/fqHuKnGSbM
— Pro Football Network (@PFN365) January 3, 2024
That said, every good fantasy football manager understands that there’s a price for any player, so you’d be wise to at least pick up the phone when other teams come calling about Hill.
Last season, Hill posted a league-best 11 games with at least 10 targets. He scored in eight of them, the best single-season mark since Brandon Marshall in 2015.
Since joining the Dolphins two seasons ago, here’s your deep reception leaderboard:
- Tyreek Hill: 76
- Justin Jefferson: 57
- CeeDee Lamb: 52
- Mike Evans: 51
So can it realistically get better? Probably not, but that doesn’t make Hill a must-sell.
When looking at the top five non-Hill receivers in recent memory that checked in under six feet tall, you’ll notice that barring issues at the QB position (be it injury or general incompetence), they generally aged well from an efficiency perspective. The change in per-target production for the WRs before their 30th birthday to following it isn’t nearly as dramatic as you’d assume.
- Antonio Brown: 3.2% increase in fantasy points per target
- Julian Edelman: 4.5% decline in fantasy points per target
- TY Hilton: 2.7% increase in fantasy points per target
- Steve Smith Sr.: QB injuries derailed his production
- Tyler Lockett: Last season was his first and Geno Smith isn’t a great fit for him
Without any QB change expected shortly in Miami, Hill is positioned to be close to this version of himself for the next couple of years. Selling high isn’t a bad idea if someone identifies him as the clear-cut WR1, but I’m not actively looking to move on from Hill, even after a banner year.
Should You Trade Diontae Johnson in Dynasty Fantasy Football?
Johnson’s perception and his usage don’t match up, and in a time of uncertainty at the quarterback position for the Pittsburgh Steelers, I’m selling my shares if I can.
Johnson was billed to us as a chain-moving option who would rack up the catches and make up for a limited ceiling with a rock-solid floor that was consistently usable. That’s not a perfect profile, but it can work if the proper lineup is built around it — it’s just not what he’s been since George Pickens was drafted.
By season, Johnson’s aDOT (average depth of target) has dramatically risen year by year:
- 2020: 7.9 yards
- 2021: 8.5 yards
- 2022: 10.2 yards
- 2023: 12.7 yards
Targets like these increase Johnson’s upside, but that’s not what I want in a Steelers offense that lacks clarity under center and already has a receiver who is better at running those deep routes.
On passes thrown 15+ yards, Pickens has a catch rate of 54.2%, a drop rate of 2.8%, and 4.3 half-point PPR points per reception. Meanwhile, Johnson averaged 32.8%, 6%, and 3.7 on those respective categories.
Pickens is five years Johnson’s junior and is the future of the position in Pittsburgh. With questions under center, are we sure that two receivers being used down the field can be counted on in fantasy?
The Steelers currently own the 20th overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, so counting on immediate help at QB is unlikely to come by way of the college ranks.
Johnson is entering the final season of his contract. Maybe a move down the road can help him return to the high-volume role that we once had, but as it stands right now, I’m looking to move on from him as he comes upon his age-28 season.
Should You Trade Adam Thielen in Dynasty Fantasy Football?
Thielen was a top-20 receiver in five of his first six games with the Carolina Panthers, a run that included three top-five finishes at the position. He was Bryce Young’s safety blanket, seeing at least eight targets in each of those top-20 finishes and catching exactly 11 balls in each of those top-five performances.
Things went sideways in a hurry once defenses latched onto what Young was/wasn’t comfortable doing. They game-planned around limiting Thielen’s impact, and thus, he was held without a top-25 finish for the final seven weeks of the season.
So what can we expect in 2024 and beyond? Could Thielen’s slow finish create a buying window for competitive teams just looking for a Flex upgrade?
I’d be careful. Thielen has seen his yards per catch decline in four straight seasons, and after scoring 10 times on 67 catches in 2021, he has 10 scores on 173 catches in the two seasons since.
Counting on an increase in scoring opportunities isn’t a stance I’m willing to take for a player about to turn 34 years old on an offense that ranked dead last in scoring and red-zone trips.
KEEP READING: Dynasty Trade Advice — Michael Pittman Jr., Tank Dell, Curtis Samuel
I’m not yet selling my stock in Young as a QB of the future, but it seems safe to say that he’s more project than prodigy. That makes a past-his-prime receiver a tough sell as anything more than lineup depth.
