Los Angeles Rams WR Cooper Kupp, Philadelphia Eagles WR DeVonta Smith, and Tennessee Titans WR Treylon Burks are at different stages of their careers with vastly different production profiles. How should fantasy football managers value these players going forward?
Should You Trade DeVonta Smith in Dynasty Fantasy Football?
After initial concerns about his size, Smith has proven he not only belongs in the NFL but can be a top-level wide receiver. Fantasy managers should have no doubts that he’ll remain an effective receiver for the next 5+ years.
Smith broke out in 2022, averaging 15.0 fantasy points per game. Playing alongside A.J. Brown, Smith was still able to command a 27% target share, which led to the best season of his career, catching 95 passes for 1,196 yards and seven touchdowns.
Unfortunately, Smith took a step back in 2023. Performance-wise, he didn’t look like a different player. However, his target share dipped to 22.8%, and Jalen Hurts didn’t play as well. As a result, Smith’s numbers slightly dipped to 14.2 points per game.
At just 25 years old, Smith has a ton of quality football ahead of him. At worst, he should provide a solid low-WR2 baseline. The question for fantasy managers is whether he can ascend into the ranks of the WR1s.
Well, there are several moving pieces right now. First, we have Smith himself, who is entering the final year of his rookie contract. The Eagles will almost certainly exercise his fifth-year option, but Smith is looking for an extension before the upcoming season.
Second, we have Brown. For as long as he’s on the team, he’ll be the WR1. Even if Brown himself isn’t producing at an elite level, his presence will prevent Smith from doing so, either.
Brown is not getting cut. The only way he leaves is via trade. There was a little smoke after the Eagles’ loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the Wild Card round, but it would still be a major upset if Brown left.
Finally, we have the coaching situation. Head coach Nick Sirianni is in a make-or-break year. The team considered moving on after last season and will almost certainly do so if 2024 is another disappointment. If the Eagles bring in an entirely new coaching staff, who knows what type of changes they may make.
All of this is to say Smith is a very good football player with a very uncertain future. Some dynasty managers may view that as a reason to get out. I view it as a reason to get in.
In dynasty, we want to buy talent. And Smith’s skill set is one I think can age very well. That means he could play until age 32 or 33. That gives his situation a long time to work itself out. Go and get the definitively good player and let the chips fall where they may.
Final Verdict: Buy
Should You Trade Cooper Kupp in Dynasty Fantasy Football?
It’s now been three years since Kupp’s historic 2021 season, where he averaged 25.9 fantasy points per game. He followed that up with more of the same, averaging 22.4 ppg in 2022. However, his season was cut short due to an ankle injury, and since then, Kupp has struggled to stay on the field.
Kupp missed the first four weeks of the 2023 season with a hamstring strain. He also tweaked his ankle during the season. While he didn’t miss any games, he was clearly limited by the injury for a couple of weeks.
The primary difference between 2023 and 2022 was that when on the field, Kupp wasn’t this otherworldly dominant fantasy asset. He only averaged 13.7 fantasy points per game.
It’s fair to say 2021/2022 Kupp is never coming back. He’ll be 31 years old before the start of this season, and while he does have a skill set that should age well, he’s no longer the Rams’ WR1. That job now belongs to Puka Nacua.
With that said, I don’t necessarily think Kupp is someone fantasy managers need to try and get rid of at all costs. It all depends on perspective. Has the fantasy community properly adjusted expectations?
Kupp can likely play another two or three years. If he can produce at a level similar to what he did last year, that’s okay. For a receiver aged 31-33 to put up 13-14 points per game, that’s very useful. It’s all about managing expectations. Don’t expect him to be a fantasy WR1 anymore.
Kupp did see a significant drop in efficiency last year. He was always a low-average depth of target guy, but his yards per route run was an elite 2.61 in 2022. Last year, it fell to 1.99, and his yards per target was merely 7.8.
MORE: Should You Move Puka Nacua, Keenan Allen, or Elijah Moore in Dynasty?
The good news is that Kupp still has Matthew Stafford, and Sean McVay still runs his consolidated offense where the touches funnel through their top two receivers and running back. Despite the efficiency drop last year, Kupp still saw a 25.6% target share last season.
Dynasty managers should definitely explore trading Kupp. Most players over 30 are worth trading away. Yet, don’t just give Kupp away. Value him as a mid-to-low WR2 for the next couple of years. If you can’t get par value or better than that in a trade, then just hold.
Final Verdict: Sell
Should You Trade Treylon Burks in Dynasty Fantasy Football?
It’s been a rough start to Burks’ career. He failed to reach the 500-yard threshold as a rookie, immediately placing him in the bucket of needing to be an outlier to ever produce at a reasonably high level.
Nevertheless, Burks did average 8.6 fantasy points per game. While that’s obviously not startable or even rosterable, there were some flashes.
As a sophomore, Burks needed to take a step forward to give fantasy managers confidence he could emerge into a productive fantasy asset. Unfortunately, the opposite occurred.
Injuries once again limited Burks to just 11 games. In those games, he commanded a target share below 10%. He caught all of 16 passes for 221 yards the entire season and averaged 3.6 fantasy ppg.
There’s really no way to spin this as anything positive.
It would be awesome to see Burks, a former first-round pick, become the guy the Titans drafted him to be. However, history suggests that is exceedingly unlikely. His odds of ever being an impactful fantasy asset are below 5%.
In most instances, I would never advocate for giving a player away — but everything is relative. It’s not giving a player away if literally anything in return would be better for your dynasty team. Sadly, that’s where we are with Burks.
MORE: Dynasty Fantasy Football Trade Value Chart
This is a situation where I genuinely recommend trading Burks to the highest bidder. Even if all you can get back is a dart-throw backup running back or a third-round dynasty rookie pick, both have a better shot at providing your fantasy team long-term value than Burks.
Final Verdict: Sell
