Jacksonville Jaguars RB Travis Etienne Jr., Seattle Seahawks RB Zach Charbonnet, and New England Patriots RB Rhamondre Stevenson are three players in very different situations for fantasy football.
How should fantasy managers value these players going forward?
Should You Trade Travis Etienne Jr. in Dynasty Fantasy Football?
In the modern NFL, it’s rare to find running backs who play all three downs. Etienne, though, appears to be one of them. He’s coming off a year where he averaged 16.6 fantasy points per game, finishing as the overall RB7. Even so, are we sure we feel confident about him?
After missing his entire rookie year due to a foot injury, Etienne burst onto the scene as a sophomore, averaging 5.1 yards per carry. He was efficient, but his lack of receiving or goal-line role led him to barely finishing as an RB2.
In his third season, Etienne’s usage increased. His 76% opportunity share was sixth in the league, but most importantly, he saw an increase in goal-line and receiving opportunities.
Etienne’s 12.1% target share was 14th in the NFL. He also handled eight goal-line carries. All of this led to him posting RB1 numbers. As always, though, additional context is required.
Etienne posted 20+ fantasy points just six times all season. He had eight weekly RB1 finishes but five games in the single digits. The reality of Etienne’s season was he had a legendary stretch of games from Weeks 5-8, scoring 36.4, 23.3, 22.7, and 25.9 fantasy points, respectively. Over the rest of his games, he averaged 13.4 points.
Of course, we can’t just remove the elite weeks like they never happened. I only bring it up to show that Etienne wasn’t quite as reliable as his final numbers may seem. To be fair, that’s nearly every running back these days. It’s just a very tricky position to properly value.
Etienne is 25 years old and entering the final year of his rookie contract. I would expect the Jaguars to exercise his fifth-year option, but nothing is guaranteed. Even if we assume Etienne remains in Jacksonville, I have serious concerns we’ve already seen his best season.
Etienne thrived in 2023 based on volume. His 4.6 yards per touch was 34th in the league, and just 3.7% of his carries went for 15+ yards. He wasn’t efficient. If the Jaguars look to reduce his workload next season, that could bring him down from an RB1 to a mid-RB2, which would be disastrous for fantasy managers.
I’m not saying you should try and trade Etienne at all costs, but I do think exploring your options is a prudent move.
Final Verdict: Sell
Should You Trade Zach Charbonnet in Dynasty Fantasy Football?
Charbonnet is yet another example of running backs failing to increase their dynasty value after their rookie season.
I liked Charbonnet as a prospect. In a different world, he easily could be viewed as a startable fantasy asset. Unfortunately, he’s in Seattle and playing behind Kenneth Walker III.
Despite spending a second-round pick on him, the Seahawks opted to treat Charbonnet mostly as a backup. By the second half of the season, he had earned the primary passing-down role. But what are fantasy managers going to do with a running back handling 4-6 carries per game?
We got a glimpse of what Charbonnet might look like in a starting role when he played three games with over a 60% snap share. In those contests, he scored 12.9, 9.8, and 16.9 fantasy points. Charbonnet as the Seahawks’ lead back would be an easy fantasy RB2.
The problem is Walker has two years left on his rookie contract. Dynasty managers cannot rely on running backs they need to hold for a total of three years before they have value.
We can reasonably conclude Charbonnet won’t be startable over the next two years unless Walker gets hurt. He may very well be an example of a running back who excels during his second contract.
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However, history suggests expecting a back who needs another back out of the way first is not something fantasy managers should rely on.
I wouldn’t fault anyone for wanting to trade Charbonnet. He’s just unlikely to garner much of a return in a deal. If you took him in your 2023 dynasty rookie draft, the only move you have is to hold and hope his situation improves.
Final Verdict: Hold
Should You Trade Rhamondre Stevenson in Dynasty Fantasy Football?
After his breakout sophomore season, fantasy managers were hoping for even bigger things from Stevenson last year. Instead, the guy who averaged 5.0 yards per carry and saw a 17.3% target share in 2022 was nowhere to be found.
The Patriots bringing in Ezekiel Elliott mattered. He took work away from Stevenson. But even when Stevenson was in the game, his efficiency wasn’t there.
Stevenson just wasn’t the same player as the year prior. He averaged 4.4 yards per touch, 40th in the league. A paltry 1.9% of his carries went for 15+ yards. That rate was 7.1% in 2022.
Stevenson also saw his target share decrease to 12.8%. That’s still a solid number, but when playing on an offense that is not going to help him score a lot, he needs that receiving volume. It was merely fine. We needed better than fine.
Stevenson is now 26 years old and entering the final year of his rookie contract. New England, meanwhile, is in the midst of a rebuild. I have no doubts Stevenson will still be the lead RB this year, but the offense will likely be led by a rookie QB. Historically, that hasn’t been great for fantasy (unless the rookie is C.J. Stroud).
There’s almost no chance Stevenson will remain with the Patriots in 2025 and beyond. New England quite literally hasn’t given a single starting running back a second contract this century. The last time they had the same leading rusher for more than two seasons was Corey Dillon from 2004-2006.
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Stevenson leaving the Patriots isn’t going to hurt his fantasy value. However, whether it helps will depend on how this season goes and how desirable of an asset he is. Given the uncertainty surrounding his future, now might be a great time for dynasty managers to see what they can get.
Final Verdict: Sell
