Marvin Mims Jr.’s dynasty ranking reflected optimism entering his rookie season, but following an underwhelming campaign, is he a post-hype trade target?
After averaging over 20 yards per catch in each of his final two collegiate seasons, Mims’ dynasty value reflected that of a prospect with the potential to work his way into fantasy football lineups from Day 1.
That didn’t pan out in his rookie season, but the speed profile is still there — should Mims be labeled as a trade target now that the shine on his star has dimmed a bit?
Marvin Mims Jr.’s Dynasty Outlook
Mims is a classic spreadsheet player. In theory, his high-end speed should make him a roster stash that can be Flexed during bye weeks as a way to access a high ceiling with little in the way of expectations.
#Broncos rookie Marvin Mims Jr. broke out in his 2nd #NFL game, catching 2 passes for 113 yards, including a 60-yd TD 🔥
A veteran WRs coach told @caplannfl he turned in a 1st-round grade on the Oklahoma product.
More on #PFN365: https://t.co/SS2oiednCJpic.twitter.com/JXHq9MC7g9
— Pro Football Network (@PFN365) September 19, 2023
As a 5’11” burner, he does offer that and should continue to do so, but the developmental trajectory isn’t a favorable one based on what he gave us in 2023.
Over the past decade, here are the rookies with a 15+ yard aDOT (average depth of target, min. 30 targets) that didn’t carry first-round draft capital in addition to Mims, who was the 63rd-overall pick 2023 NFL Draft by the Denver Broncos):
- 2014 Martavis Bryant, Pittsburgh Steelers
- 2016 Robbie Chosen, New York Jets
- 2018 Robert Foster, Buffalo Bills
- 2018 James Washington, Pittsburgh Steelers
- 2020 Denzel Mims, New York Jets
- 2020 Gabe Davis, Buffalo Bills
- 2023 Jalin Hyatt, New York Giants
- 2023 Tre Tucker, Las Vegas Raiders
That’s not exactly a list of fantasy football stars. Furthermore, Mims earned a target on just 13.6% of routes in his first season, a rate that checks in below the average of the eight names listed above (14.9%).
Combine that concerning trend with the fact that a long-term solution at the quarterback position probably isn’t on the current roster and that the Broncos currently have two receivers that are easily ahead of Mims in terms of the target hierarchy, and the path to his stock elevating above the stereotype for his skill set is unlikely.
Mims’ Dynasty Ranking
Where does Mims land in the dynasty WR landscape going into the 2024 offseason? Here are Kyle Soppe’s latest dynasty rankings, featuring where Mims lands in comparison to other top names at the position.
1) Ja’Marr Chase | CIN
2) Justin Jefferson | MIN
3) Tyreek Hill | MIA
4) CeeDee Lamb | DAL
5) Amon-Ra St. Brown | DET
6) A.J. Brown | PHI
7) Garrett Wilson | NYJ
8) Jaylen Waddle | MIA
9) Chris Olave | NO
10) Tee Higgins | CIN
11) Brandon Aiyuk | SF
12) Puka Nacua | LAR
13) DJ Moore | CHI
14) Nico Collins | HOU
15) Rashee Rice | KC
16) Michael Pittman Jr. | IND
17) Amari Cooper | CLE
18) Cooper Kupp | LAR
19) DeVonta Smith | PHI
20) DK Metcalf | SEA
21) Zay Flowers | BAL
22) Drake London | ATL
23) Jaxon Smith-Njigba | SEA
24) Davante Adams | LV
25) Mike Evans | TB
26) Tank Dell | HOU
27) Jayden Reed | GB
28) Deebo Samuel | SF
29) Calvin Ridley | JAX
30) Stefon Diggs | BUF
31) Jordan Addison | MIN
32) Keenan Allen | LAC
33) Terry McLaurin | WAS
34) George Pickens | PIT
35) Chris Godwin | TB
36) Josh Downs | IND
37) Gabe Davis | BUF
38) Michael Wilson | ARI
39) Jameson Williams | DET
40) Elijah Moore | CLE
41) Romeo Doubs | GB
42) Jerry Jeudy | DEN
43) Christian Kirk | JAX
44) Diontae Johnson | PIT
45) DeAndre Hopkins | TEN
46) Khalil Shakir | BUF
47) Joshua Palmer | LAC
48) Jahan Dotson | WAS
49) Courtland Sutton | DEN
50) Jakobi Meyers | LV
51) Treylon Burks | TEN
52) Christian Watson | GB
53) Marquise Brown | ARI
54) Mike Williams | LAC
55) Tyler Lockett | SEA
56) Zay Jones | JAX
57) Jonathan Mingo | CAR
58) Quentin Johnston | LAC
59) Jalin Hyatt | NYG
60) Noah Brown | HOU
61) Tutu Atwell | LAR
62) Michael Thomas | NO
63) Marvin Mims Jr. | DEN
64) Kendrick Bourne | NE
65) Adam Thielen | CAR
66) Cedric Tillman | CLE
67) Rashid Shaheed | NO
68) Brandin Cooks | DAL
69) Trey Palmer | TB
70) Darius Slayton | NYG
Should You Trade Mims in Dynasty?
Are you considering trading Mims? Our free PFN Trade Analyzer allows you to find the best trade offer to make in seconds!
It’s hard to overstate just how broken the Broncos offense was in 2023. They went an entire season in this era geared toward offense with reasonable health (Javonte Williams, Courtland Sutton, and Jerry Jeudy all appeared in 16 of 17 games) and somehow didn’t have a player reach 800 rushing or receiving yards.
That’s hard to fathom. The Green Bay Packers “accomplished” this as well, but their starting running back missed six games, their perceived WR1 missed eight games, and their perceived TE1 missed six games. The two teams that played in the Super Bowl combined to have seven players reach 800 yards either on the ground or through the air.
MORE: Fantasy Player News Tracker
With the 12th-overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, the Broncos aren’t in position to land one of the quarterback prospects that are projected to be a franchise centerpiece, meaning that 2024 could be a lost season for the members of this passing game.
While I am intrigued by Mims’ profile, his path to mattering in fantasy on any sort of consistent basis isn’t clear. His current stock is based more on hope than anything we’ve seen — if a trade of Jeudy/Sutton were to occur or if Mims generates hype this summer, I’d be looking to cash in move on from him. At his current price tag, however, there isn’t much to be gained in trading him.
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