Los Angeles Rams QB Matthew Stafford’s dynasty value is in an interesting spot because he’s reached the point of his career where any year could be his last. How should fantasy football managers handle Stafford going forward?
Matthew Stafford’s Dynasty Outlook
We aren’t that far removed from the rumors of Stafford retiring. Just two short years ago, questions abounded as to whether he would continue playing football.
Matthew Stafford 🤝 Jared Goffpic.twitter.com/jfUlZACESi
— Pro Football Network (@PFN365) January 16, 2024
Although his 2022 season was a disaster mired by several injuries, Stafford made it clear he had no intentions to retire anytime soon. He rebounded considerably in 2023, taking the Rams back to the playoffs after a one-year absence.
Stafford looked healthy and was playing at a high level. Nothing about his 2023 performance suggests he’s even close to done. I truly believe Stafford can play until 40 if he wants to.
While all of this is great for the Rams, it doesn’t mean anything for fantasy managers if he’s not putting up startable numbers. In 2023, he kind of did.
Stafford averaged 16.9 fantasy points per game, finishing as the overall QB14. However, he wasn’t a fantasy starter for much of the season. Much of his production was largely backloaded.
From Weeks 1-11, Stafford didn’t have a single game better than 17.2 fantasy points. From Weeks 12-17, he posted at least 18.5 points in all but one game.
The initial reaction to Stafford’s splits may be confusion. What changed? In terms of Stafford’s play, nothing. The only difference between his start and finish was touchdowns.
Over that first span of 11 weeks, the Rams ran for most of their scores. Stafford threw just nine touchdowns and had one game with more than one TD pass. From Weeks 12-17, though, he threw 15 touchdowns. He threw multiple touchdowns in every game from Weeks 12-16.
It’s impossible to predict things like TD variance. We can project how many touchdowns the Rams are likely to score as a team. Whether those touchdowns come disproportionately on the ground or through the air is largely random.
As we saw last season, it can change at the drop of a hat. The most important takeaway for fantasy managers is Stafford is still good at football. If he shows up next season, he’s a clear QB1.
Stafford’s Dynasty Ranking
Where does Stafford land in the dynasty QB landscape going into the 2024 offseason? Here are Katz’s latest rankings, featuring where Stafford lands in comparison to other top names at the position.
1) Patrick Mahomes | KC
2) Josh Allen | BUF
3) Jalen Hurts | PHI
4) Lamar Jackson | BAL
5) Joe Burrow | CIN
6) C.J. Stroud | HOU
7) Justin Herbert | LAC
8) Dak Prescott | DAL
9) Anthony Richardson | IND
10) Kyler Murray | ARI
11) Brock Purdy | SF
12) Tua Tagovailoa | MIA
13) Trevor Lawrence | JAX
14) Justin Fields | CHI
15) Jordan Love | GB
16) Jared Goff | DET
17) Bryce Young | CAR
18) Kirk Cousins | MIN
19) Matthew Stafford | LAR
20) Deshaun Watson | CLE
21) Will Levis | TEN
22) Geno Smith | SEA
23) Baker Mayfield | TB
24) Aaron Rodgers | NYJ
25) Derek Carr | NO
26) Daniel Jones | NYG
27) Russell Wilson | DEN
28) Jake Browning | CIN
29) Gardner Minshew II | IND
30) Joe Flacco | CLE
31) Kenny Pickett | PIT
32) Sam Howell | WAS
33) Aidan O’Connell | LV
34) Jimmy Garoppolo | LV
35) Ryan Tannehill | TEN
36) Trey Lance | DAL
37) Mason Rudolph | PIT
38) Jacoby Brissett | WAS
39) Zach Wilson | NYJ
40) Hendon Hooker | DET
Should You Trade Stafford in Dynasty?
Are you considering trading Stafford? Our free PFN Trade Analyzer allows you to find the best trades to make in seconds!
While I remain positive about Stafford’s prospects as an NFL quarterback for another 3-4 years, the fact remains he’s 36 years old. If he had elite QB1 upside, then sure, ride him as long as you can. But he doesn’t. Not in the modern NFL.
We saw what Stafford’s absolute ceiling looks like in 2021. He threw for 4,886 yards and 41 touchdowns. Yet, he just barely reached 20 points per game and finished as the overall QB11. It would take a massive outlier touchdown season like that for Stafford to be a QB1.
MORE: Dynasty Consensus Rankings
This may look like a recommendation to trade Stafford. I’m not saying you shouldn’t, but what are you going to get for him?
It’s exceedingly difficult to trade non-elite quarterbacks in 1QB formats. If you can get something useful for Stafford while not leaving yourself with a void at quarterback, go for it. Otherwise, just hold and hope he can be a high QB2 again in 2024.
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