Arizona Cardinals WR Michael Wilson’s dynasty value has a lot riding on the 2024 season. Wilson briefly flashed as a rookie but had just a few fantasy-relevant weeks. Should fantasy football managers expect a 2024 breakout?
Michael Wilson’s Dynasty Outlook
It seems unfair to call a sophomore wide receiver’s season an inflection point in his career. Yet, that’s where things are headed with Wilson. He flashed enough as a rookie to make us believe he has a legitimate upside as an offense’s WR2. With 38 receptions for 565 yards, Wilson reached the necessary 500-yard threshold for rookie wide receivers to have more than a 5% chance of mattering in the NFL.
Trading is important to being successful in dynasty fantasy football. How should fantasy managers handle Chris Olave, DeAndre Hopkins, and Michael Wilson? https://t.co/oEhoTljLEY
— PFN Fantasy (@PFNFantasy) January 31, 2024
Wilson’s rookie season was definitely more bad than good. However, as fantasy managers, we often cling to believing the parts we want.
As a rookie, Wilson had just three fantasy-relevant games all season. Two of them came in Weeks 17 and 18, when no one was starting him/fantasy football was already over.
It’s important to acknowledge Wilson had to play with Joshua Dobbs and Clayton Tune for half the season. That certainly didn’t help his production. However, Kyler Murray did return for the second half, and Wilson’s production didn’t miraculously improve. The only encouraging part is Wilson closed out the season with two of his best games of the season.
It is still very early in Wilson’s career, but if a wide receiver doesn’t take that leap forward in Year 2 or 3, it’s probably not happening. Wilson doesn’t need to reach his final form in 2024. However, he does need to at least be a relevant fantasy wide receiver.
Wilson averaged just 1.4 yards per route run last season. That shows an inability to command targets. However, he did average 9.7 yards per target, indicating that when he was targeted, he was effective with those opportunities. The question is whether he will be able to command more volume as a sophomore. He must significantly improve upon his 13.7% target share.
Wilson’s Dynasty Ranking
Where does Wilson land in the dynasty WR landscape going into the 2024 offseason? Here are Jason Katz’s latest rankings, featuring where Wilson lands in comparison to other top names at the position.
Jason Katz’s Top 60 Dynasty WR Rankings
1) Justin Jefferson | MIN
2) Ja’Marr Chase | CIN
3) CeeDee Lamb | DAL
4) Amon-Ra St. Brown | DET
5) Puka Nacua | LAR
6) Garrett Wilson | NYJ
7) Tyreek Hill | MIA
8) A.J. Brown | PHI
9) Chris Olave | NO
10) Jaylen Waddle | MIA
11) Brandon Aiyuk | SF
12) DK Metcalf | SEA
13) Michael Pittman Jr. | IND
14) DeVonta Smith | PHI
15) Drake London | ATL
16) Jordan Addison | MIN
17) DJ Moore | CHI
18) Jaxon Smith-Njigba | SEA
19) Tank Dell | HOU
20) Nico Collins | HOU
21) Rashee Rice | KC
22) Tee Higgins | CIN
23) Zay Flowers | BAL
24) Deebo Samuel | SF
25) Jayden Reed | GB
26) Amari Cooper | CLE
27) Mike Evans | TB
28) Davante Adams | LV
29) Christian Kirk | JAX
30) Cooper Kupp | LAR
31) George Pickens | PIT
32) Diontae Johnson | PIT
33) Terry McLaurin | WAS
34) Chris Godwin | TB
35) Keenan Allen | LAC
36) Calvin Ridley | JAX
37) Stefon Diggs | BUF
38) Josh Downs | IND
39) Dontayvion Wicks | GB
40) DeAndre Hopkins | TEN
41) Marquise Brown | ARI
42) Courtland Sutton | DEN
43) Jakobi Meyers | LV
44) Michael Wilson | ARI
45) Mike Williams | LAC
46) DeMario Douglas | NE
47) Christian Watson | GB
48) Rashid Shaheed | NO
49) Jameson Williams | DET
50) Tyler Lockett | SEA
51) Wan’Dale Robinson | NYG
52) Jahan Dotson | WAS
53) Jerry Jeudy | DEN
54) Marvin Mims Jr. | DEN
55) Khalil Shakir | BUF
56) Gabe Davis | BUF
57) Elijah Moore | CLE
58) Brandin Cooks | DAL
59) Zay Jones | JAX
60) Joshua Palmer | LAC
Should You Trade Wilson in Dynasty?
Are you considering trading Wilson? Our free PFN Trade Analyzer allows you to find the best trades to make in seconds!
This is the tough part. There’s really no scenario where Wilson’s value remains the same. Right now, there’s still reason for optimism. But if Wilson’s 2024 is similar to his 2023, his dynasty value is going to crater, and you will wish you had traded him.
On the other side of things, if Wilson does take that step forward this year, he will be significantly more valuable at this point next year.
If Wilson succeeds, he may be too expensive to be worth acquiring. If he fails, he will be cheaper, but you won’t want him. Now is the time to decide on Wilson. Fantasy managers just need to accept they very well may get it wrong.
Wilson is 24 years old, and his rookie season was good enough to not close the door on him becoming a quality fantasy asset. Murray should be better in 2024, considering he’ll be much further removed from his December 2022 torn ACL.
Fellow WR Marquise Brown’s contract is up, and by all accounts, he’s expected to play elsewhere in 2024. Even if the Cardinals draft Ohio State WR Marvin Harrison Jr., Wilson would be the presumptive favorite for the WR2 role.
MORE: Dynasty Fantasy Football — Optimal Setup, Rules, and More
You’re not going to build a dynasty without taking any risks. Wilson doesn’t have a WR1 upside, but there’s nothing wrong with a solid WR2, which he’s very much capable of becoming. I lean more on the side of buying Wilson now while he’s cheap and hoping things pan out in your favor.
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