Detroit Lions QB Jared Goff’s dynasty value has rebounded nicely over the past two seasons. Playing on an offense that is continuing to improve, should fantasy football managers be content with him as their dynasty QB1? Where does his value stand heading into the offseason?
Jared Goff’s Dynasty Outlook
The discourse surrounding Goff was always a bit perplexing to me. I’m talking about during his final couple of years with the Los Angeles Rams. Sure, Matthew Stafford was and is better, but it felt as though Goff was made out to be this below-average starting quarterback.
Goff had a disastrous rookie season — one of the worst of all time for a first-overall pick. He also was playing under head coach Jeff Fisher that season.
Once Sean McVay was hired in 2017, Goff started to show why he was the first overall pick in 2016. He averaged 17.5 fantasy points per game, setting him up for his breakout 2018 season where he averaged 19.9 points per game where he finished as the overall QB8.
Throughout his career, Goff has proven to be a viable fantasy quarterback. Since he’s not a runner by any means, he will always have a capped ceiling. But perception is key. Goff was never viewed or valued as someone who should be a top-six fantasy QB. Instead, the question was whether he’s a viable fantasy starter at all. For the past seven years, he’s answered that question.
Since 2017, Goff has averaged at least 16.5 fantasy points per game in all but one year, that being his disappointing 2021 season. It was also his first year with the Lions and Dan Campbell’s first season as a head coach. Over the past two seasons, Goff has been a steady, reliable option, both for the Lions and for fantasy managers.
Goff averaged 17.1 fantasy points per game in 2022 and 17.8 points per game in 2023. Those numbers were good for QB14 and QB11 finishes. He’s not going to win fantasy managers any leagues, but he rarely completely flops on a given week.
Like every non-mobile quarterback, Goff relies heavily on touchdowns. Fortunately, the Lions have one of the best offenses in the league. While they are rather run-heavy, as evidenced by their 45% neutral game script run rate, they have scored enough for Goff to throw 29 and 30 touchdowns each of the past two years.
With his top two pass-catchers, Amon-Ra St. Brown and Sam LaPorta, both being so young, I see no reason Goff shouldn’t remain a high-floor QB1 for the better part of the next decade.
Goff’s Dynasty Ranking
Where does Goff land in the dynasty QB landscape going into the 2024 offseason? Here are Katz’s latest rankings, featuring where Goff lands in comparison to other top names at the position.
Jason Katz’s Top 40 QB Rankings
1) Patrick Mahomes | KC
2) Josh Allen | BUF
3) Jalen Hurts | PHI
4) Lamar Jackson | BAL
5) Joe Burrow | CIN
6) C.J. Stroud | HOU
7) Justin Herbert | LAC
8) Dak Prescott | DAL
9) Anthony Richardson | IND
10) Kyler Murray | ARI
11) Brock Purdy | SF
12) Tua Tagovailoa | MIA
13) Trevor Lawrence | JAX
14) Justin Fields | CHI
15) Jordan Love | GB
16) Jared Goff | DET
17) Bryce Young | CAR
18) Kirk Cousins | MIN
19) Matthew Stafford | LAR
20) Deshaun Watson | CLE
21) Will Levis | TEN
22) Geno Smith | SEA
23) Baker Mayfield | TB
24) Aaron Rodgers | NYJ
25) Derek Carr | NO
26) Daniel Jones | NYG
27) Russell Wilson | DEN
28) Jake Browning | CIN
29) Gardner Minshew II | IND
30) Joe Flacco | CLE
31) Kenny Pickett | PIT
32) Sam Howell | WAS
33) Aidan O’Connell | LV
34) Jimmy Garoppolo | LV
35) Ryan Tannehill | TEN
36) Trey Lance | DAL
37) Mason Rudolph | PIT
38) Jacoby Brissett | WAS
39) Zach Wilson | NYJ
40) Hendon Hooker | DET
Should You Trade Goff in Dynasty?
Are you considering trading Goff? Our free PFN Trade Analyzer allows you to find the best trade offer to make in seconds!
Goff is such a tricky quarterback to evaluate in a dynasty format. He’s the quintessential QB2 in Superflex formats — the exact type of guy you want to pair with an elite QB1. But he’s not that elite QB1, and I don’t think he ever can be.
I do believe we’ve already seen Goff’s best season. For him to nearly reach 20 points per game, it took him throwing for 4,688 yards and 32 touchdowns in 2018. Outlier touchdown years are always possible, but it’s difficult to see Goff ever doing better than that.
MORE: Dynasty Fantasy Football Trade Value Chart
If Goff is the top quarterback on your dynasty roster, it’s worth trying to upgrade. View Goff as the fail-safe plan. If you can’t figure out a way to get a better one, you know you have the safety of Goff to fall back on. But the goal should always be to put difference makers and needle movers at as many positions as possible. That is how you build a juggernaut.
Whether or not you should trade Goff is not about getting rid of Goff. If you can get someone better in return for a reasonable price, go for it. Otherwise, continue building out the rest of your roster. If it’s strong enough, you can still win with a quarterback like Goff.
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