Not all players on your roster are going to be elite options. Much like in “real” sports, role players hold more importance than they are widely credited for, and DeMario Douglas’ dynasty fantasy football value is a fine example of that.
The sixth-round pick was held without a touchdown on his 70 targets as a rookie (49 receptions) in a New England Patriots offense that was stuck in the mud for the entire season. Before outright dismissing anyone from this struggling franchise, let’s use the data he provided us with in his first season to determine if there is more hope than the stat line initially suggests.
DeMario Douglas’ Dynasty Outlook
Douglas is a 5’8” slot receiver, a profile that isn’t overly friendly for fantasy purposes, regardless of the situation. Over the past decade, only two receivers that measured 5’8” or shorter have had 700+ receiving yards in a season (Cole Beasley did it three times while Andrew Hawkins did it once), and zero times over that stretch has such a receiver caught more than six touchdown passes.
The trends of our supersized NFL are working against Douglas being a stable fantasy option, and the Patriots’ offense pretty clearly isn’t positioned to help him elevate above those expectations.
Patriots QB rankings for 2023
- 32nd in INT rate
- 30th in passer rating
- 30th in yards per attempt
- 28th in TD rate
On the bright side, the QB play can’t get worse, right?
The lack of competition for targets is one thing that can keep Douglas on PPR radars, as he proved reasonably capable of earning looks during his time at Liberty and again flashed those skills in 2023.
RELATED: Dynasty Fantasy Football Trade Value Chart
We know that slot targets tend to be more accurate than perimeter ones, making that spot on the field one where Douglas is going to have to win consistently to prove to be viable. As a rookie, he saw 68.4% of his targets come when lined up in the slot, a rate that isn’t a surprise and should only grow with time. The encouraging part was his ability to turn routes into targets at a 24.3% clip in that alignment.
- Rookie Jaylen Waddle: 23.0%
- Rookie Garrett Wilson: 22.6%
- Rookie CeeDee Lamb: 21.0%
By no means am I suggesting that Douglas is going to be anywhere in the same sphere as those three receivers, but his rookie season is a bit more encouraging than the raw stat line suggests or that his current asking price indicates.
Douglas’ Dynasty Ranking
Where does Douglas land in the dynasty WR landscape going into the 2024 offseason? Here are Soppe’s latest rankings, featuring where Douglas lands in comparison to other top names at the position.
1) Ja’Marr Chase | CIN
2) Tyreek Hill | MIA
3) CeeDee Lamb | DAL
4) Justin Jefferson | MIN
5) Amon-Ra St. Brown | DET
6) A.J. Brown | PHI
7) Garrett Wilson | NYJ
8) Jaylen Waddle | MIA
9) Chris Olave | NO
10) Brandon Aiyuk | SF
11) Puka Nacua | LAR
12) Michael Pittman Jr. | IND
13) Nico Collins | HOU
14) Rashee Rice | KC
15) Marvin Harrison Jr. | FA
16) DJ Moore | CHI
17) Amari Cooper | CLE
18) Drake London | ATL
19) Malik Nabers | FA
20) Tee Higgins | CIN
21) DK Metcalf | SEA
22) Stefon Diggs | HOU
23) Cooper Kupp | LAR
24) DeVonta Smith | PHI
25) Zay Flowers | BAL
26) Jaxon Smith-Njigba | SEA
27) Davante Adams | LV
28) Mike Evans | TB
29) Tank Dell | HOU
30) Jayden Reed | GB
31) Rome Odunze | FA
32) Terry McLaurin | WAS
33) Deebo Samuel | SF
34) Calvin Ridley | TEN
35) Jordan Addison | MIN
36) Keenan Allen | CHI
37) Mike Williams | NYJ
38) George Pickens | PIT
39) Chris Godwin | TB
40) Josh Downs | IND
41) Courtland Sutton | DEN
42) Jerry Jeudy | CLE
43) Gabe Davis | JAX
44) Michael Wilson | ARI
45) Jameson Williams | DET
46) Christian Kirk | JAX
47) Troy Franklin | FA
48) Elijah Moore | CLE
49) Romeo Doubs | GB
50) DeAndre Hopkins | TEN
51) Diontae Johnson | CAR
52) Jahan Dotson | WAS
53) Dontayvion Wicks | GB
54) Khalil Shakir | BUF
55) Marvin Mims Jr. | DEN
56) Christian Watson | GB
57) Xavier Worthy | FA
58) Joshua Palmer | LAC
59) Keon Coleman | FA
60) Zay Jones | JAX
61) DeMario Douglas | NE
62) Jakobi Meyers | LV
63) Treylon Burks | TEN
64) K.J. Osborn | NE
65) Marquise Brown | KC
66) Jonathan Mingo | CAR
67) Tyler Lockett | SEA
68) Quentin Johnston | LAC
69) Noah Brown | HOU
70) Jalin Hyatt | NYG
71) Michael Thomas | FA
72) Brandin Cooks | DAL
73) Kendrick Bourne | NE
74) Ladd McConkey | FA
75) Brian Thomas Jr. | FA
76) Tutu Atwell | LAR
77) Roman Wilson | FA
78) Adonai Mitchell | FA
79) Adam Thielen | CAR
80) Cedric Tillman | CLE
81) Rashid Shaheed | NO
82) Trey Palmer | TB
83) Darius Slayton | NYG
84) Wan’Dale Robinson | NYG
85) Darnell Mooney | ATL
86) Kadarius Toney | KC
87) Rashod Bateman | BAL
88) John Metchie III | HOU
89) Rondale Moore | ATL
90) Skyy Moore | KC
Should You Trade Douglas in Dynasty?
It’s going to take a perfect situation for Douglas to return weekly Flex production in anything but the deepest of leagues, and the trajectory of New England simply doesn’t hint at such a spot. He deserves to be rostered in dynasty formats given his age and potential to assume a lead role in one of today’s pass-centric offenses. But as far as the trade market goes, there isn’t enough value to move him.
Patience.
Not every player on your dynasty roster has to have a clear path to greatness — it’s OK to take a step back and use another season to evaluate. Douglas’ target-earning abilities from the slot last season bought him another year of interest from me, understanding that he’s a deep stash that I won’t be relying on.
KEEP READING: Dynasty Consensus Rankings
If you want to move him for a future draft pick, I get it. Just know that the type of future asset you’ll get in return for Douglas at this point is going to be a long-term piece that requires developing — exactly like the player you are giving up.
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