After opening the season injured, the deck was firmly stacked against UDFA Baltimore Ravens UDFA RB Keaton Mitchell. Yet, the young back was able to work his way back and establish himself as the best running back on the team. Unfortunately, a brutal knee injury ended his rookie season prematurely. Can Mitchell return at 100% and continue his rise in fantasy football? Where does his dynasty value stand heading into the offseason?
Keaton Mitchell’s Dynasty Outlook
It’s a bit surprising that a player as athletic as Mitchell went undrafted. With a 4.37-second 40-yard dash speed, elite burst, and a solid receiving profile, conventional wisdom suggested someone would take a shot on him late on Day 3. Instead, Mitchell had to wait until the draft ended to get his chance to prove himself.
Mitchell’s age is interesting because, typically, UDFAs tend to be older rookies. Yet, at 21 years old, he was one of the youngest prospects of the 2023 rookie class.
Additionally, UDFAs often get one shot to make their mark. Thus, Mitchell starting the season on the PUP list didn’t bode well for him ever getting a real chance.
However, as fate would have it, J.K. Dobbins went down with a torn Achilles, leaving the Ravens’ backfield to Gus Edwards and Justice Hill. While Edwards is a solid between-the-tackles grinder, the Ravens were always reluctant to make him a featured back during his tenure with the team. They were always looking for that spark.
Mitchell returned to action in Week 6 but only played on special teams. He got into the game offensively in Week 7 but strained his hamstring again, costing him Week 8. Upon his return in Week 9, he looked like he was shot out of a cannon.
Simply put, you don’t rush for 138 yards on nine carries in your first real game of action unless you’re good at football. Mitchell may have only carried the ball 47 times as a rookie, but he averaged an astounding 8.4 yards per carry.
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Additionally, Mitchell chipped in as a receiver, catching at least one pass in every game he played. We saw enough from him as a rookie to believe he can be a quality fantasy asset.
Now, for the bad part: Mitchell, who had already dealt with two separate injuries before integrating into the offense, tore his ACL in Week 15. It’s exceedingly rare that we look at an ACL tear and think, “Oh, that’s all? Whew.” But that’s the case with Mitchell.
It’s not a replay I wish to see again, as it looked very much like what happened to Jaylon Smith back in 2016. It’s a miracle Mitchell escaped with only a torn ACL.
Mitchell’s Dynasty Ranking
Where does Mitchell sit in the dynasty RB landscape? Here are Katz’s latest rankings, featuring where Mitchell lands in comparison to other top names at the position.
1) Breece Hall | NYJ
2) Bijan Robinson | ATL
3) Jahmyr Gibbs | DET
4) Christian McCaffrey | SF
5) Jonathan Taylor | IND
6) De’Von Achane | MIA
7) Kyren Williams | LAR
8) Saquon Barkley | PHI
9) Josh Jacobs | GB
10) Travis Etienne Jr. | JAX
11) Rachaad White | TB
12) Isiah Pacheco | KC
13) Kenneth Walker III | SEA
14) James Cook | BUF
15) D’Andre Swift | CHI
16) Javonte Williams | DEN
17) Derrick Henry | BAL
18) Tony Pollard | TEN
19) David Montgomery | DET
20) Rhamondre Stevenson | NE
21) Joe Mixon | HOU
22) Alvin Kamara | NO
23) Najee Harris | PIT
24) Jaylen Warren | PIT
25) Tyjae Spears | TEN
26) James Conner | ARI
27) Brian Robinson Jr. | WAS
28) Aaron Jones | MIN
29) Zamir White | LV
30) Austin Ekeler | WAS
31) Zach Charbonnet | SEA
32) Nick Chubb | CLE
33) Jerome Ford | CLE
34) Devin Singletary | NYG
35) Gus Edwards | LAC
36) Chuba Hubbard | CAR
37) Raheem Mostert | MIA
38) Kendre Miller | NO
39) Trey Benson | FA
40) Jonathon Brooks | FA
41) Zack Moss | CIN
42) Tyler Allgeier | ATL
43) Blake Corum | FA
44) MarShawn Lloyd | FA
45) Braelon Allen | FA
46) Jaylen Wright | FA
47) Antonio Gibson | NE
48) Ty Chandler | MIN
49) Keaton Mitchell | BAL
50) Chase Brown | CIN
51) AJ Dillon | GB
52) Bucky Irving | FA
53) Roschon Johnson | CHI
54) Khalil Herbert | CHI
55) Alexander Mattison | LV
56) J.K. Dobbins | FA
57) Ezekiel Elliott | FA
58) Miles Sanders | CAR
59) Tank Bigsby | JAX
60) Elijah Mitchell | SF
Should You Trade Mitchell in Dynasty?
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Obviously, injuries are not good, especially major knee injuries. However, Mitchell is 22 years old, and recovering from a torn ACL is not what it used to be.
It won’t happen right away, but Mitchell should be able to return to his previous level of performance by midway through the 2024 season. Unfortunately, the Ravens’ running back situation has changed considerably.
Not only did the Ravens sign former Tennessee Titans RB Derrick Henry, they gave him a two-year deal. Unless Henry completely falls off a cliff in the next two seasons, Mitchell’s role alongside him will be limited.
So, Mitchell first has to recover from his knee injury. Then, he has to regain a regular role, which will almost certainly be as the receiving back.
The good news for Mitchell is he’s still really young, and the Ravens let both Edwards and Dobbins walk. Currently, their backfield is Henry, Mitchell, and Hill. I have confidence that if Mitchell can return healthy he will take Hill’s job.
With that said, this was all set to be Mitchell as the lead back potentially in 2025. Now, that seems unlikely. The combination of his injury and the Ravens signing Henry really hurt Mitchell’s dynasty value.
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Nevertheless, if you stumbled upon Mitchell last season — or, rather, if you saw it and made it a point to get him, I would hold. You’re not going to get much trading away a rookie who still technically hasn’t proven much and is now recovering from a serious knee injury.
Mitchell has the most possible value by remaining on your roster. In fact, if you don’t have him, it’s not a bad idea to send out feelers right now while he’s still on the mend.
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