It’s no secret that the receiver position offers stability over the long haul that the running back position simply doesn’t. That means your ability to properly evaluate the rookie performances is critical.
How has the dynasty outlook for Green Bay Packers WR Jayden Reed changed after a big season? How about the change in the Indianapolis Colts WR Josh Downs’ dynasty conversation? Is now the time to buy Las Vegas WR Jakobi Meyers’ dynasty stock?
If you want to take your fantasy football team to the next level, these are the types of players you need to accurately assess –- let’s dive in!
Should You Trade Jayden Reed in Dynasty?
The conversation around Reed lacks clarity. That, for me, makes him the perfect target to acquire (or hold).
We all fell in QB Jordan Love with this passing game during the second half of the season and into the playoffs, but there’s no denying the uncertainty when it comes to exact roles on this offense.
Targets Per Route in 2023
- Aaron Jones: 24.8%
- Jayden Reed: 23.9%
- Dontayvion Wicks: 19.9%
- Romeo Doubs: 19.5%
- Christian Watson: 18.9%
- Luke Musgrave: 18.0%
- Tucker Kraft: 14.6%
With a distribution like this, there is some skepticism about Reed’s immediate ceiling. Most are willing to label him as the favorite to lead this pass-catching corps next season, but we don’t “know” it to be true given the number of talented young options.
On the heels of his stellar finish to his rookie season, how should dynasty managers value Green Bay Packers WR Jayden Reed heading into 2024? https://t.co/IbqDeFbCUo
— PFN Fantasy (@PFNFantasy) January 29, 2024
Buy in before it’s too late.
Reed turns 24 in April, and while he didn’t post a Los Angeles Rams Puka Nacua-like rookie stat line, a 64-793-8 season is nothing to sneeze at, nor is he ranking 15th in average separation per route run.
MORE: Dynasty Fantasy Football Trade Value Chart
This kid showed future promise well above his encouraging raw numbers. Need proof? Here’s a list of players drafted in the first two rounds of the NFL Draft in the past decade that gave us an average depth of target (aDOT) north of 10.0 yards and an average yards after catch clear of 5.0 on at least 70 targets:
- Odell Beckham Jr. (2014)
- Sammy Watkins (2014)
- Amari Cooper (2015)
- Calvin Ridley (2018)
- Justin Jefferson (2020)
- A.J. Brown (2019)
- Chase Claypool (2020)
- Jerry Jeudy (2020)
- Ja’Marr Chase (2021)
Of course, not all of those situations have worked out in a big way. But there are twice as many hits (Beckham, Cooper, Ridley, Jefferson, Brown, and Chase) as general disappointments (Watkins, Claypool, and Jeudy).
Reed’s pairing with a developing quarterback looks a little more like Chase growing with QB Joe Burrow than it does Claypool teaming up with Ben Roethlisberger or Watkins/Jeudy being introduced to the league with little promise under center (Kyle Orton/EJ Manuel for Watkins and Drew Lock for Jeudy).
Reed would fetch a decent amount right now if you’re moving him –- fight the temptation and stick tight.
If you have the chance to acquire Green Bay’s budding star, be aggressive. You’re not going to regret it!
Final Verdict: Buy
Should You Trade Josh Downs in Dynasty?
With Michael Pittman Jr. likely set to test the free agent waters this winter, Downs’ stock could shoot up sooner than later. Yet, I believe holding onto him makes the most sense as opposed to cashing in now.
This Colts offense is going to look drastically different with QB Anthony Richardson under center. Now is the best time to invest if you’re confident in the physical specimen being the impact player he seemed to be in his four appearances as a rookie.
Downs turns 23 years old in August and gave fantasy managers a 68-771-2 stat line as a rookie. On the surface, those numbers may not jump off the screen.
However, a 2% drop rate (second best in the 2023 rookie class to Michael Wilson –- another player I’m in favor of getting as many shares of as possible this offseason) combined with top-10 marks in contested-catch percentage and win rate against man coverage, we’re looking at a receiver set to make a difference in fantasy leagues in short order.
In the small sample of Richardson passes that we got in 2023, Downs only earned a 16% target share (behind Pittman and TE Kylen Granson). Yet, he did haul in 69.2% of his looks from the explosive passer, a rate that was well ahead of the other Colts receivers as a whole (53.1%).
Drafting Downs heading into 2023 made sense, given the potential he flashed at North Carolina, and nothing I saw last season has me pivoting from my bullish opinion of him.
Hold him tight if you were ahead of the game and drafted him, or make offers for Downs’ services. If not, the price is only going to increase with time.
Final Verdict: Buy
Should You Trade Jakobi Meyers in Dynasty?
Meyers doubled his career total in receiving touchdowns during his first season with the Raiders and is viewed more favorably now than he was 12 months ago. But should that be the case?
The 27-year-old impressed at points in 2023, taking on a new role that moved him out of the slot. That change gives Meyers access to higher upside targets, but the quality of those looks is in question without stability under center in Las Vegas.
- 2021: 66.7% of routes were in the slot
- 2022: 56.3% of routes were in the slot
- 2023: 26.4% of routes were in the slot
The value of targets earned is one question that deserves to be asked, and Meyers’ volume is also a concern. Under QB Aidan O’Connell (the presumptive starter for 2024) in 2023, Meyers saw just 17.1% of the targets.
That’s not an awful rate, but is that worth holding onto? That puts him in the Packers WR Romeo Doubs and Seattle Seahawks WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba neighborhood from last season, a rate that I’m not confident lands Meyers as a fantasy asset on any sort of regular basis.
Meyers is a good player who will produce decent numbers, but the path for growth in a significant way isn’t clear in my eyes. He posted a 31.6% contested catch rate last season, another middling metric that leaves him without a clear upside case.
I’m using 2023 as much of a springboard as I can when it comes to getting out of the Meyers business. Go get yourself a younger piece with more potential or a veteran that can help you win now with an established QB, and try to avoid the middle ground where Meyers appears destined to fall.
Final Verdict: Sell