David Montgomery continues to be a solid running back for the Detroit Lions. Even with Jahmyr Gibbs likely taking another step forward in 2024, can Montgomery maintain his fantasy football value? Where does Montgomery’s dynasty value stand heading into the offseason?
David Montgomery’s Dynasty Outlook
Fantasy managers love the shiny new toy in any format. Nowhere is that more pronounced than in dynasty. Of course, Gibbs wasn’t only going to be valued ahead of Montgomery in dynasty but in redraft as well.
David Montgomery punches it in to give the #Lions a 14-0 lead 😳#AllGrit | #FTTB pic.twitter.com/QrBqIRRpQv
— Pro Football Network (@PFN365) January 29, 2024
Now, to be fair, it wasn’t wrong.
Gibbs averaged 16.1 fantasy points per game and was the overall RB8 as a rookie who was a pure backup for the first month of the season. But let’s not forget why Gibbs was a pure backup for that first month.
Montgomery is nowhere near as talented as Gibbs. However, that doesn’t mean he’s a bad player.
As someone who was very critical of Montgomery early in his career, and rightfully so (he was pretty bad), he’s evolved into a really good running back. The improvement from his first two seasons to now is very apparent.
It’s impossible to know exactly how last year would have played out had Montgomery not gotten hurt. There’s a non-zero chance he would’ve maintained the clear lead-back role the entire season, with Gibbs only playing around 30% of the snaps.
Montgomery very well may have finished with more fantasy points per game than his rookie counterpart. Even in a timeshare, he averaged 14.8 fantasy ppg, finishing as the overall RB15.
Montgomery’s 2023 season is a prime example of why situation matters in fantasy football. While he did have better seasons in 2020 and 2021, he played his best football last year. His 4.6 yards per carry were a career-best, as were his 13 touchdowns.
Was Montgomery suddenly a vastly more efficient runner last season? Maybe. But the more likely explanation is he joined a team with a good offense and a strong offensive line.
Montgomery is never going to be a splash-play guy. He gets what’s blocked and plays sound football. Put him on a bad offense behind a line that can’t block, and he’s probably going to average around 11 fantasy ppg. Give him the Lions’ great situation, and he’s a fantasy RB2.
Known for his ability to break tackles, Montgomery did evade tackles at a 20.4% clip. However, as has been the issue his entire career, his lack of burst prevents him from doing much when he makes those defenders miss.
Just 3.7% of Montgomery’s carries went for 15+ yards, and his 3.25 yards created per touch was 32nd in the league. He has become entirely dependent on touchdowns.
MORE: Detroit Lions Dynasty Advice
Of course, he’s on the Lions — that matters. Montgomery will be able to score more touchdowns because he’s the team’s primary goal-line back, as evidenced by his whopping 53 red-zone touches and 13 goal-line carries.
In Chicago, Montgomery was able to supplement his rushing with receiving. He’s certainly capable of doing that in Detroit, but as long as Gibbs is around, that’s just not a role he’s going to have.
Last season, Montgomery’s 5.3% target share was, by far, a career low. There was no deliberate effort to ever get him the ball in the passing game.
Montgomery’s Dynasty Ranking
Where does Montgomery sit in the dynasty RB landscape? Here are Katz’s latest rankings, featuring where Montgomery lands in comparison to other top names at the position.
1) Breece Hall | NYJ
2) Bijan Robinson | ATL
3) Jahmyr Gibbs | DET
4) Christian McCaffrey | SF
5) Jonathan Taylor | IND
6) De’Von Achane | MIA
7) Kyren Williams | LAR
8) Saquon Barkley | PHI
9) Josh Jacobs | GB
10) Travis Etienne Jr. | JAX
11) Rachaad White | TB
12) Isiah Pacheco | KC
13) Kenneth Walker III | SEA
14) James Cook | BUF
15) D’Andre Swift | CHI
16) Javonte Williams | DEN
17) Derrick Henry | BAL
18) Tony Pollard | TEN
19) David Montgomery | DET
20) Rhamondre Stevenson | NE
21) Joe Mixon | HOU
22) Alvin Kamara | NO
23) Najee Harris | PIT
24) Jaylen Warren | PIT
Should You Trade Montgomery in Dynasty?
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Montgomery is the epitome of a floor play, which is kind of counterintuitive. Typically, we associate safety with receptions, and touchdowns are purely a bonus. For Montgomery, the touchdown potential is what makes him so safe.
Last year, he reached double-digit fantasy points in every game except one, and that was the game he departed early with his rib/chest injury.
With that said, Montgomery’s upside is a bit lacking. Outside of that anomalous Week 4 game where he handled 32 carries, he had just one other game with 20+ fantasy points. Montgomery scored between 10.0 and 17.8 fantasy points in 11 of 14 games played last season. He’s consistent and reliable, but he’s not about to win you any matchups.
Montgomery is entering his age-27 season. I rarely say this about running backs who are primarily runners, but I believe Montgomery can do what he does for another solid three, maybe four years.
He’s neither fast nor explosive. He reminds me a bit of Mark Ingram, who remained effective until age 30. As long as he stays healthy, Montgomery’s game should age well.
The Lions have Montgomery locked in for the next two seasons. There’s always a chance they cut him after this year, but if the offense continues to play well, they may opt to just keep everyone together. Regardless, fantasy managers need not concern themselves beyond the next two years.
While fantasy managers should expect Gibbs to see a bit more work in his sophomore season, Montgomery’s production shouldn’t take too much of a hit. He can be a 13-points-per-game back even as the 1b behind Gibbs.
KEEP READING: 2024 Dynasty Rookie RB Rankings
Ultimately, the Lions strike me very much as an “If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it” type team. Their core of Jared Goff, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Sam LaPorta, and the running backs are all returning. I expect the offense to look the same, meaning the backfield will look largely the same.
You should trade anyone if the price is right, but I don’t love the state of the RB position in fantasy football right now. Montgomery is as solid as they get, so I wouldn’t go out of my way to try and trade him.
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