Sad that the fantasy football season is coming to an end? We all are, but as one season closes, another opens. Now is as good a time as any to walk through a start-up dynasty mock draft — we are onto 2024!
Of course, this early in the process, the incoming rookie class requires some guesswork as they don’t yet have teams. The same applies to the free agent class which is full of impactful players. Use this as a guide as you look to prepare, not gospel. We will continue to churn out dynasty content as we near the NFL Draft!
2024 Dynasty Mock Draft | Round 1
1.01) Patrick Mahomes, QB, Kansas City Chiefs
We can argue about player takes until the end of time, and there is value to that. But something that isn’t up for debate is the positional hierarchy in a Superflex setting.
- Quarterback
- Wide receiver
- Running back
In a league setting like this, the successful teams are more than likely to be starting multiple QBs every week, and the floor that comes with Kansas City Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes is how I want to start off my team.
Patrick Mahomes throws a STRIKE to Travis Kelce to give the #Chiefs an early lead! 👀
That makes 17 career postseason TDs for the duo.
— Pro Football Network (@PFN365) January 28, 2024
Mahomes has set a career-high in completion percentage in consecutive seasons, a nice trend for a 28-year-old QB that is likely to get an influx of talent at the receiver position with the money saved from the team releasing Marquez Valdes-Scantling. The mobile quarterbacks offer more week-over-week upside than Kansas City’s star, but his ability to stay on the field and maximize the talent around him is second to none.
1.02) Jalen Hurts, QB, Philadelphia Eagles
With Kellen Moore taking over this offense, Philadelphia Eagles QB Jalen Hurts‘ status as an elite option isn’t changing anytime soon. Critics will point to him averaging under 20 completions in each of the past three seasons, but with 9.8 carries per game over that stretch (not to mention 10+ rushing scores in each of those seasons), his “fantasy volume” is on track to compete with anyone at the position.
His style of play puts him at a little more risk than Mahomes, and an increase in surrounding talent is less likely in Philadelphia than in Kansas City. But you’re splitting hairs between these two, and if you prefer to build around a mobile QB, I have no issue with selecting Hurts at the 1.01.
1.03) Josh Allen, QB, Buffalo Bills
Buffalo Bills QB Josh Allen has a WR1 in Stefon Diggs that appears to be declining, losing him the minor tie-breaker with Hurts in my rankings, but these three quarterbacks are in a tier of their own. If I had the choice of draft pick entering a start-up dynasty, I wouldn’t stray from this top trio.
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Allen has thrown for over 4,200 yards and has accounted for at least 42 total touchdowns in four straight seasons, providing fantasy managers with as high of an annual floor as anyone in the sport.
The reckless nature of Allen is what makes him great, but it also requires you to consider roster depth in the later rounds. Sure, Allen has missed just one game over the past five seasons, though it’s hard to imagine a skill set like that of Allen aging exceptionally well as he trends toward 30 years of age.
1.04) Joe Burrow, QB, Cincinnati Bengals
All systems seem to be a go for Cincinnati Bengals QB Joe Burrow entering 2024 after his wrist injury, and that’s a good start for a player who has already established himself as one of the best in the sport. Since he entered the league …
- First in third-down completion percentage
- Fifth in deep touchdown rate
- Sixth in passer rating
At the very least, he has an alpha receiver in town for the foreseeable future, and if WR Tee Higgins returns, Burrow’s pass-catching nucleus is as encouraging long-term as any QB.
Burrow cleared 4,400 yards through the air with 34+ passing touchdowns in both 2021 and 2022, numbers that I expect him to produce regularly over the next decade. His rushing profile isn’t that of those ranked in this first half of the first round, but his processing ability and situation elevate him to this tier.
1.05) Lamar Jackson, QB, Baltimore Ravens
In his first season under the tutelage of Todd Monken, Baltimore Ravens QB Lamar Jackson set a career-high in completion percentage and threw for 551 more yards than he had in any other season.
This team is built to succeed around what Monken wants to do with WR Zay Flowers, TE Isaiah Likely, and RB Keaton Mitchell all showing us the ability to produce in space. Jackson has run for at least 695 yards in each season, a unique athleticism that began to be worked into Monken’s script with time.
Jackson won the 2023 NFL MVP, and I think his average stat line over the next few seasons will be above what he gave us last season from a sheer numbers point of view.
1.06) Anthony Richardson, QB, Indianapolis Colts
I’m not ready to put the “injury-prone” label on Indianapolis Colts QB Anthony Richardson yet — not after a single season. His path to fantasy greatness is through leveraging his physical tools, something that I expect him to learn how to do with time.
Richardson ran for four scores in the parts of four games he played as a rookie and had a 38+ yard completion in three of those games. His style encouraged shootouts (over 50 total points scored in three of four games), and that is exactly the type of game environment we want.
There is clearly risk in spending this pick on a player with this little NFL experience, but the upside of a difference-maker for years to come is something only a few players in the league have. You can always layer your roster with safety in the middle rounds — I want a player that I can build championships (plural!) on the back of for years to come.
1.07) C.J. Stroud, QB, Houston Texans
We discussed 2024 QB Rankings on the PFN Fantasy Podcast — I was lower than the industry on Houston Texans QB C.J. Stroud. But that doesn’t dim my opinion of him in a dynasty Superflex league.
Rookie quarterbacks over the past decade to post a passer rating over 95 have seen their Year 2 fantasy production dip by 8.3% points per game (PPG). The potential for the league to catch up to him after a historic rookie season is there, but in this era of scoring, that isn’t a long-term concern for me with the young receiver core that Houston has assembled.
In his first season, Stroud led the league in first-down passer rating and touchdown rate — this team was comfortable putting him in an aggressive spot, and that projects to be the case for at least another decade.
1.08) Ja’Marr Chase, WR, Cincinnati Bengals
Bengals WR Ja’Marr Chase sits atop my dynasty receiver rankings, though it is a tier that is four players deep, all of whom I’d be more than comfortable building a roster around.
MORE: What Is a Dynasty Rookie Draft? How It Works, Tips, and More
I view his combination of scoring upside, QB stability, and physical profile as second to none. Even in a “down” season, Chase caught 100 balls in 2023, a season that saw Burrow and Higgins struggle to stay on the field. If this season was his “worst-case scenario” for the next handful of years, you’re set to make a profit on him at this draft slot.
All of these Round 1 receivers have the potential to do something like what Los Angeles Rams WR Cooper Kupp did in 2021, but I simply value the overall offensive growth potential moving forward in Cincinnati over these other situations.
1.09) Justin Jefferson, WR, Minnesota Vikings
Minnesota Vikings WR Justin Jefferson didn’t miss any time in his first three NFL seasons, so I’m not sweating the seven absences in 2023. Essentially every record for production through four career seasons is in Jefferson’s name, as he has established himself as the premier WR in the game today.
There is uncertainty at the QB position in Minnesota, something that has to be considered. I like the idea of WR Jordan Addison developing into a Robin to Jefferson’s Batman from a quality of usage standpoint.
If we knew that the Vikings would get Kirk Cousins-level production over the next five seasons, Jefferson would be ranked ahead of Chase. But that lack of clarity is enough for me to slide him all the way down to WR2.
1.10) Tyreek Hill, WR, Miami Dolphins
Miami Dolphins WR Tyreek Hill turns 30 in March, but he has set career highs in targets during both of his seasons in Miami and is clearly sold on QB Tua Tagovailoa being the future of the position for the Dolphins.
He looked a little more human down the stretch of 2023 (under 100 yards in five straight games to close this season after reaching triple digits in eight of his first 12), production swings that could become more commonplace with time.
Hill is a certified game-wrecker that NFL defenses have yet to solve, something that I don’t think changes in the short term. The age curve works against him when comparing him against the other elites, but he very much deserves first-round consideration if you’re not thrilled with the QB options left on the board.
1.11) CeeDee Lamb, WR, Dallas Cowboys
In his fourth NFL season, Dallas Cowboys WR CeeDee Lamb shattered team single-season records, highlighted by a 227-yard performance against the Detroit Lions during most fantasy Super Bowls (Week 17).
His catch and touchdown totals have increased each season of his career, and, without Dallas having a reliable WR2 on the roster, Lamb’s elite usage isn’t going anywhere anytime soon.
Over the past three seasons, QB Dak Prescott has averaged over two passing touchdowns per game, giving the Cowboys stability at the position. Lamb checks all of the boxes of a dynasty centerpiece and is the end of my top tier of receivers — you can’t go wrong with anyone in this tier.
1.12) Justin Herbert, QB, Los Angeles Chargers
The hiring of Jim Harbaugh should help Los Angeles Chargers QB Justin Herbert‘s bid for a bounce-back campaign, as should some improved health for his supporting cast. For me, his path to fantasy greatness is similar to that of New York Jets QB Aaron Rodgers — reasonable mobility with a consistently strong scoring rate.
The former is something that often gets overlooked when discussing Herbert (over 225 rushing yards and three scores in three of four seasons), and when you blend that production with the upside we all believe he has through the air, the path to him leading the second tier of fantasy QBs for years to come is there.
There is talent on this roster, and if Harbaugh is the talent elevator for which we are giving him credit, the profile that we fell in love with following Herbert’s monster 2021 season (5,014 passing yards with 38 pass TDs) is still there.
While I am comfortable with his upside, Herbert is the beginning of the Superflex tier for which I view securing a strong secondary QB as a requirement.
2024 Dynasty Mock Draft | Round 2
2.01) Trevor Lawrence, QB, Jacksonville Jaguars
Jacksonville Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence certainly didn’t live up to his preseason hype in 2023, but from a process standpoint, I’m comfortable going back to him as a strong option in this format.
Last season was plagued by injuries (WRs Christian Kirk and Zay Jones missed time before Lawrence’s health became a concern) and the bumpy working back of Calvin Ridley to a regular role. If Ridley returns in 2024, Lawrence is positioned to have plenty of help (TE Evan Engram and RB Travis Etienne Jr. will join that receiver trio).
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It’s easy to forget, but Lawrence is a high-pedigree QB who has yet to turn 25 years of age and saw his deep pass metrics (yards per attempt, touchdown rate, and passer rating) spike in his third season.
I guess that I am higher on Lawrence than most — so when he falls further than this, happily embrace the discount that 2023 is affording you!
2.02) Dak Prescott, QB, Dallas Cowboys
Prescott was on the MVP radar for the majority of 2023, his age-30 season. He threw a career-high 36 TD passes and completed a career-best 69.5% of his passes, thriving in an offense that led the league in scoring.
Was 2023 the peak of his powers? Some regression certainly needs to be built in to account for the struggles of the run game and the surplus of end-zone passes those struggles put on Prescott’s plate (14 more such attempts than any other QB in the league), and that keeps him out of my first round.
That said, the floor is high given the scoring environment and presence of an alpha WR that will be around for years to come. As long as you’re not counting on his 2023 numbers to sustain over the next five seasons, you’re just fine landing Prescott at this point in a dynasty Superflex draft.
2.03) Tua Tagovailoa, QB, Miami Dolphins
By completing 69.3% of his passes for 4,624 yards and 29 TDs in 2023, Tagovailoa extended his impressive (pre-injury) numbers from 2022 and looks the part of a trustworthy QB moving forward.
Having an offense full of explosive talents is the exact situation a pocket passer like Tagovailoa needs to produce high-end numbers. The lack of mobility certainly caps his production ceiling (4.4 rushing yards per game in 2023), but by averaging over 8.5 yards per pass since Hill was acquired, the floor is more than enough to invest in.
The concussion concerns should still be considered, though the 25-year-old excelled at getting the ball out fast and keeping himself out of harm’s way in 2023. This is the exact type of QB I am looking for in Round 2 if I opted to draft a skill-position player in Round 1.
2.04) Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR, Detroit Lions
Detroit Lions WR Amon-Ra St. Brown caught 10 TD passes in 2023 after recording 11 in his first two seasons, giving fantasy managers confidence in his ability to produce at an elite level.
Who would you rather have as your WR1 in dynasty fantasy football leagues?
A.J. Brown or Amon-Ra St. Brown?
Sound off in the comments⤵️⤵️
Brown's Dynasty Value ➡️ https://t.co/LHqjB6IGuR
St. Brown's Dynasty Value ➡️ https://t.co/HPh8LuZ2Iw pic.twitter.com/01O3s8VGum— PFN Fantasy (@PFNFantasy) January 16, 2024
I think St. Brown’s 2023 serves as something of a ceiling in terms of usage. WR Jameson Williams, TE Sam LaPorta, and RB Jahmyr Gibbs are all going to demand more work as they develop, and that could result in a plateauing of St. Brown’s numbers.
We have to nit-pick at the very top of the WR board, and that is enough for me to knock St. Brown out of my top dynasty tier. But he’s not far off and should be viewed as a very safe WR1 in all formats.
2.05) Justin Fields, QB, Chicago Bears
The lack of long-term clarity at this moment needs to be considered, as Chicago Bears QB Justin Fields is very much the type of QB that needs franchise support. His completion percentage has inched up during his three seasons, but not to a level where I’m comfortable in considering him an elite fantasy option.
The rushing numbers speak to themselves (career: 6.2 yards per carry and a score once every 2.9 games) and make him a fantasy asset no matter where he is playing.
Staying in Chicago, in my opinion, is the near-optimal situation given the yards-after-catch (YAC) monster at his disposal (WR DJ Moore) and an inconsistent run game that requires him to call his own number routinely.
That said, the rumored favorite to land his services, the Atlanta Falcons, isn’t a bad spot to be, given the draft capital they have poured into their skill positions. Assuming he calls Chicago or Atlanta home, his spot in this mock is safe: he carries some risk, but the potential reward outweighs it — you just need to structure your future picks around a QB that carries a wider range of outcomes than those that went in the first 15 picks.
Mobile QBs are a blessing and a curse in a format like this — drafting a player like Fields gives you access to extreme value, but it also leaves you open to risk given his limitations as a passer and injury potential.
2.06) Kyler Murray, QB, Arizona Cardinals
Will the Arizona Cardinals give QB Kyler Murray a big-time weapon in the 2024 NFL Draft? Much like Fields, Murray’s ability to make plays on his own is nothing short of special, thus making the idea of adding playmakers to his supporting cast enticing.
I thought WR Michael Wilson showed some promise in his rookie season, and TE Trey McBride very much looks like the future of the tight end position. If Arizona can bring in another target earner, a healthy version of Murray can score 35+ touchdowns and join the 3,000/1,000-yard club if healthy.
In Superflex, it’s common to draft a star quarterback and then wait for a handful of rounds before addressing the position again — the idea being to embrace the discount on the skill-position players and patch together your QB2 slot alongside your elite QB1.
I wouldn’t be comfortable with executing that stretch if Murray is my QB1. The upside is clearly in his profile, but with availability being a concern in three straight seasons, the downside is more than I’m willing to swallow with that style of drafting.
2.07) Bijan Robinson, RB, Atlanta Falcons
I went over the expectations for Atlanta Falcons RB Bijan Robinson under new offensive coordinator Zac Robinson and the underrating of what Robinson accomplished during his rookie season. As a rookie, Robinson’s usage was a moving target, but he maximized his opportunities and should be more of a featured asset moving forward.
MORE: How To Win Your Dynasty Fantasy Football League in 2024
I’m in no hurry to invest in a running back in any sort of dynasty setup, but Robinson’s trajectory stands to give you a significant edge at the position for the next handful of years. If you’re taking an RB in the first two rounds, you’re committing to a win-now strategy — nothing wrong with that, you just need to be aware of the shape your roster should be taking.
2.08) A.J. Brown, WR, Philadelphia Eagles
Philadelphia’s alpha receiver has rattled off consecutive 1,400-yard seasons since joining the team and should be viewed as a viable WR1 in all formats. The hope with Moore as the offensive coordinator is to gain a little more week-over-week stability. And if that comes to fruition, A.J. Brown joining the top tier at the position isn’t a crazy thought.
He’s not currently a Tier 1 receiver for me due to the limitations of Hurts as a passer and the potential for the targets on any given week to be distributed elsewhere.
I have no problem assuming that Brown can produce a carbon copy of his 2023 season for years to come — your ranking of him hinges on your confidence that he can level up as this passing game evolves.
2.09) Garrett Wilson, WR, New York Jets
Consecutive seasons for Jets WR Garrett Wilson with over 80 catches and 1,000 yards is nothing short of amazing given the QB play he has had to deal with. The hope is that Rodgers is firing passes to him in the short term, and that makes him a win-now type of selection.
That’s not to say that he can’t have success in the post-Rodgers era, but QB play does have to be factored in for dynasty startup drafts, and the fact of the matter is that we simply don’t know who will be responsible for getting Wilson the ball in future seasons the way we do for a player like Chase or Brown.
2.10) Christian McCaffrey, RB, San Francisco 49ers
San Francisco 49ers RB Christian McCaffrey has been worth every penny spent on him since joining San Francisco and has managed to stay remarkably healthy after a two-year stretch that was riddled with injuries.
Christian McCaffrey is at the top of the game when it comes to fantasy football.
However, dynasty focuses on more than just the upcoming year. Where do things stand for the elite RB and is he someone you can still build around in a startup draft?
Read➡️ https://t.co/K5SREjhkZa pic.twitter.com/QWOqSl0qgC
— PFN Fantasy (@PFNFantasy) January 15, 2024
He doesn’t turn 28 years old until June, but with him already coming up on 2,000 professional touches, the age curve is something that needs to be considered before selecting McCaffrey.
None of his underlying numbers hint that a drop-off is imminent, and that’s great for the short term. That said, running backs are a little like cars — the second you drive them off the lot, they lose value.
McCaffrey is great — that much we know — but NFL teams try not to build around a running back, and dynasty fantasy managers should follow that lead. If he falls in your lap, go for it and try to win a title now, but I’m interested in jumping the ADP patterns for any running back in the first handful of rounds.
2.11) Breece Hall, RB, New York Jets
New York Jets RB Breece Hall returned from injury in 2023 to an offense that couldn’t threaten defenses through the air, yet he still managed to rack up 1,585 total yards and nine scores. His versatility and breakaway ability give him the potential to lead the position in fantasy points as soon as 2024.
Outside of positional concerns, there’s nothing to not like. Hall caught 76 passes in his second season, earning at least eight targets on six different occasions. His status as a fantasy asset is QB-proof due to his ability to make plays in space, but if he is going to be a true difference-maker, some stability under center is a requirement.
2.12) Puka Nacua, WR, Los Angeles Rams
I voiced my concerns about locking in Rams WR Puka Nacua as a top-12 receiver for 2024 earlier this offseason, and I stand by that. But even a short-term skeptic like myself can’t deny the rosy long-term outlook.
Nacua broke most of the rookie records (105 catches for 1,486 yards and six scores) and proved capable of earning targets at the professional level from the second he walked onto the field. He closed his impressive first season by catching nine of 10 targets for 180 yards and a touchdown against the Lions in the playoffs — the perfect capping for a historic year.
KEEP READING: Dynasty Fantasy Football Startup Draft Strategies
This was as high as I could get Nacua. The talent is not a question, but when projecting forward, he is playing alongside another elite target-earner in an offense sans a long-term solution at the QB position.
I’m not suggesting that Nacua falls flat. I don’t think he does, but is it possible that his dynasty stock is close to its peak? For me, he’s not significantly ahead of any of the receivers in my third round — a take that I’m not sure will be common in your draft room.
2024 Dynasty Mock Draft | Round 3
3.01) Chris Olave, WR, New Orleans Saints
3.02) Tee Higgins, WR, Cincinnati Bengals
3.03) Jaylen Waddle, WR, Miami Dolphins
3.04) Jahmyr Gibbs, RB, Detroit Lions
3.05) Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, Ohio State
3.06) Jayden Daniels, QB, LSU
3.07) Nico Collins, WR, Houston Texans
3.08) Rashee Rice, WR, Kansas City Chiefs
3.09) Malik Nabers, WR, LSU
3.10) Caleb Williams, QB, USC
3.11) Jordan Love, QB, Green Bay Packers
3.12) Brandon Aiyuk, WR, San Francisco 49ers