The weather has been a huge part of these NFL playoffs, and it looks like we could see Mother Nature impacting the AFC Championship Game. With the Kansas City Chiefs and Baltimore Ravens facing off in M&T Bank Stadium, could we see fantasy football numbers adversely impacted today?
Let’s examine the NFL weather report for the game and see what the forecast tells us could happen during the game.
What Is the Baltimore Weather Forecast for the Chiefs vs. Ravens Game?
- Temperature: 44-46 degrees
- Precipitation: 50% chance of rain during the game
- Wind: 9-11 mph sustained northeasterly winds with occasional gusts up to 20 mph
The weather forecast is from the National Weather Service and correct as of 2 p.m. ET on Sunday, Jan. 28.
For the most part, the weather concerns in these playoffs have been around cold weather and snow. However, this week in Baltimore, the concern is around the more traditional wind and rain concerns. The current weather forecast suggests just under a 50% chance we could see rain throughout the game.
Rain itself does not generally have a major impact on the way an NFL game plays out. Since 2000, rain-impacted games with low-level winds (<10 mph) have seen a drop of around two points per game on average. Where things get a little more spicy is when you throw wind speeds over 10 mph into the mix.
TruMedia’s database catalogs all games since 2000 based on wind speed at kickoff. That does not take into account gusts or changing wind conditions throughout the game, but it gives a rough template to follow. Dry games with wind speed between 11-15 mph average 42.3 points per game, with games played in 16-20 mph winds sitting at 40.9 points per game.
In contrast, games played in the rain see an average point total of 36.3 when the kickoff wind speed is 11-15 mph and 39 when the wind speed is 16-20 mph. The 16-20 mph and rain bucket is a smaller sample size of just 29 games, compared to over 75 in the other buckets, so that result is the hardest to trust.
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Overall, there is some potential here that we will see offensive play suppressed somewhat by the weather conditions in Baltimore. When you then add that to two good defenses in this game, we could see a rather lean game from a fantasy perspective.
From a fantasy perspective, that means players may look to lean heavier on the game between the Detroit Lions and San Francisco 49ers. If you are in a 50-50 situation over which QB, WR, or TE to trust, the numbers above suggest it makes sense to lean toward the player from the game in Levi’s Stadium.
However, by no means are you completely fading the likes of Lamar Jackson, Patrick Mahomes, Zay Flowers, Rashee Rice, Travis Kelce, Mark Andrews, or Isaiah Likely. All of them are talented options, and the projected sustained wind speeds are right on the border of being significant in terms of points scored.
This weather is also not significant enough to the point where fantasy managers would consider not utilizing either Justin Tucker or Harrison Butker. With two of the best kickers in the game on the field, both should be able to handle minor adversity in the conditions this week.
From a betting perspective, the under is intriguing here. When you look at the betting data around weather-impacted games, rain has an intriguing impact. In all rain-affected games in the TruMedia database, the under has hit in 224 of the 360 games (62%). When the wind gets into that 10-20 mph range, the under hits in around 70% of games.
Those numbers make for intriguing reading, but with the total this week set at right around 44.5-45.5, it is right on the borderline of being a good value. The biggest takeaway here is that fantasy points from the offensive weapons may see a 10-15% suppression. Not enough to fade them completely, but enough to break any ties with players in the later game.