It is hard to argue against the assumption that the top of the 2020 running back class is very good. Jonathan Taylor, J.K. Dobbins, D’Andre Swift, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, and Cam Akers make up the so-called ‘Big 5’ as they are expected to be the first five off the board. The question surrounding each of them is where will they land and will any of them be selected in the first round? Predictions for where they end up playing are all over the board. Before their names are officially called, here are my running back projections for the 2020 NFL Draft.
Will any running backs go in the first round?
When looking at running back projections in the 2020 NFL Draft, the first round is a massive wild card. There is assuredly no Saquon Barkley that will be going in the top-10 this year, but is there a Josh Jacobs in this class? There very well might be in the form of Jonathan Taylor, Clyde Edwards-Helaire or D’Andre Swift.
Those are the three running backs that seem to have had some discussions about being taken in the back end of the first round. With Leonard Fournette potentially on his way out in Jacksonville, the best-case scenario for a back coming off the board is the 20th pick. I have my doubts, however, that we will see that come to fruition. Miami could use a running back in the back end of the first round, but there are more significant needs to fill in that spot.
With that in mind, it leaves Seattle and Kansas City as the two teams that could go for a running back. The Chiefs desperately need a cornerback, and I think they will look to address that first. Still, the Seahawks are one team that could pull the trigger here. Rashaad Penny and Chris Carson both suffered significant injuries, and they are the type of organization that has put considerable draft compensation into the position before. If any team does it, I think it is Seattle, and it would be Jonathan Taylor.
Still, Seattle has other needs as well, such as an edge rusher and offensive tackle. Honestly, I do not believe we will see a running back go in the first round, but Seattle and Miami are probably the two teams to watch for if there is one that comes off the board.
Where could they land in the second round?
The running back position will not be dried up by the time round two ends, but it would not surprise me if all of the ‘Big Five’ are off the board by the time the Bengals are on the clock at the top of the third round.
Just looking at some teams that could go running back, there are some obvious candidates. The Dolphins could address running back at 39 with Dobbins, who they have been linked to throughout the draft process. Tampa Bay has met with Taylor and Edwards-Helaire and certainly needs to fill in the backfield. Jacksonville comes back around at 42 and could pick up Fournette’s potential replacement here with any of the running backs left of the board.
After Jacksonville, Atlanta, Pittsburgh, and Buffalo could all be in positions to take a running back. The Steelers and Bills specifically do not have a ton of holes on their roster and could in best player available scenarios. If a running back is there for them that they like, there is a good chance they pull the trigger. In addition, Seattle and Kansas City are in the back end of the second round and could take a top back if one falls into their lap.
2020 running back projections for the third round
With the top guys likely off the board by the time the third round rolls around, there could still be a noticeable run on running backs. In this range, guys like Zack Moss, Joshua Kelley, Eno Benjamin, Darrynton Evans, Antonio Gibson, and Lamical Perine could all come off the board.
I fully expect that some teams will sit on their guy and wait until the sweet spot of the third round to draft them. I think we will see all of the guys listed above, barring perhaps Perine, come off the board in the third round at some point. There are too many teams looking for running back depth or looking to fill a significant need that will want to draft a guy and slot them into a committee.
When making these projections for the 2020 NFL Draft, everything centers around what happens in the earlier rounds. However, there are enough running back-needy teams to see a potential run of these guys, starting in the middle of the second round.
My overall projection is that we see zero running backs come off the board in the first round, but we will see up to five picked in the second, with enough teams willing to take the value on a top guy that falls down the board. After that, expect a run on them in the third round, followed by sporadic picks of running backs like Ke’Shawn Vaughn, A.J. Dillon, Anthony McFarland, and others on the last day of the draft.