After being selected in the second round of the 2021 NFL Draft, the Javonte Williams dynasty fantasy football outlook was one of optimism and hope.
In his final season at North Carolina, all Williams did was score 22 times and average 7.9 yards per touch. The excitement made plenty of sense, and parts of his film looked as promising as any back that was set to walk into a featured role.
After shredding his knee in 2022 (torn ACL, LCL, and PLC), Williams struggled and averaged a mere 3.6 yards per carry in 2023. Should managers be running away from him, or is now the perfect time to buy low on a talented back who is a year removed from the injury?
Javonte Williams’ Dynasty Outlook
Williams racked up 1,219 scrimmage yards in an encouraging rookie campaign, production that should still be viewed as part of his profile.
Adrian Peterson’s heroic return from a torn ACL has skewed what many think is likely to occur after such a tough injury. The Saquon Barkley path is much closer to the reasonable expectation, and using that as a guide, Williams deserves your attention.
The perfect play call gets Javonte Williams into the endzone as Russ gets the pass off in time!#Broncos retake the lead with just over 5 minutes to play. pic.twitter.com/rJ75dwPnLs
— Pro Football Network (@PFN365) November 14, 2023
Barkley suffered his knee injury in 2020, and it took him a season to challenge the form he showed prior. In his second season following the injury, Barkley’s yards per carry increased by 18.9% compared to his first year back, reminding us of the talent we fell in love with.
Barkley ran hard in both of those seasons, but his body caught up with his mind in Year 2, as his yards per carry before first contact rose by 70.4% in the second season.
Williams’ yards per carry before contact in 2023 was down 16.5% from his rookie campaign, and a return to — if not improvement upon — his rookie rate would go a long way toward him rewarding managers for remaining loyal.
I expect Williams to be a popular “post-hype” name circled on my redraft/dynasty draft sheets this summer.
Williams’ Dynasty Ranking
Where does Williams land in the dynasty RB landscape going into the 2024 offseason? Here are Soppe’s latest rankings, featuring where Williams lands in comparison to other top names at the position.
1) Bijan Robinson | ATL
2) Christian McCaffrey | SF
3) Breece Hall | NYJ
4) Jonathan Taylor | IND
5) Jahmyr Gibbs | DET
6) Saquon Barkley | PHI
7) Travis Etienne Jr. | JAX
8) Kyren Williams | LAR
9) James Cook | BUF
10) Kenneth Walker III | SEA
11) De’Von Achane | MIA
12) Isiah Pacheco | KC
13) Javonte Williams | DEN
14) Alvin Kamara | NO
15) Rhamondre Stevenson | NE
16) Derrick Henry | BAL
17) Nick Chubb | CLE
18) Josh Jacobs | GB
19) Rachaad White | TB
20) Tony Pollard | TEN
21) Zamir White | LV
22) D’Andre Swift | CHI
23) Aaron Jones | MIN
24) Jaylen Warren | PIT
25) Brian Robinson Jr. | WAS
Should You Trade Williams in Dynasty?
Are you considering trading Williams in dynasty? Our free PFN Trade Analyzer makes it easy to find the best trade offer to make in seconds.
The Broncos’ offense comes with no shortage of question marks for 2024, and that level of uncertainty makes Williams a tough player to value.
On one hand, he is a running back who has a major knee injury on his resume on what isn’t expected to be a great team with significant quarterback questions.
On the other, buying windows for high-pedigree talent at the position is rare, and this appears to be one of those.
Due to the devaluing of the RB position in both “real” and fantasy football, the odds are good that Williams can be acquired for less than you assume.
When projecting forward, we are asked to take into account both the best- and worst-case scenarios. The best-case scenario is that Williams thrives in a featured role and can build on the promise of his rookie season.
MORE: Dynasty Rookie Rankings 2024
For 2024, I view that as reasonably likely. And given that the worst (non-injury related) outcome isn’t that bad given the limited competition he has in this backfield, I’m falling more on the optimistic side of the Williams debate than not.
Trading for a running back at any time in a dynasty format is scary and not something I often do. That said, getting a talent like this with a full season between him and the devastating knee injury is a roll of the dice that I’m interested in.
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