We have two fascinating games on the docket for Conference Championship Sunday, with the Super Bowl 58 lineup ready to be confirmed. With stars lining up all over the field in both games, who will stand out and make an impact in the AFC and NFC Championship Games?
In our NFL player prop bets for Sunday, our NFL betting experts give their top-value bets for the Kansas City Chiefs, Baltimore Ravens, Detroit Lions, and San Francisco 49ers.
Best NFL Player Prop Bets for Today’s Playoff Games
Travis Kelce Under 62.5 Receiving Yards (-110 at FanDuel)
Blewis: Travis Kelce had a really efficient game in their win over the Bills last week, with five receptions for 75 yards on just six targets, including two touchdowns.
Against the Bills, the Chiefs took advantage of a depleted linebacker core for Buffalo, as they had almost nobody left at the position to defend the middle of the field. As a result, Kelce was able to feast.
But Kelce won’t have that same luxury against a Ravens defense with two All-Pro players at the position, as well as the best safety tandem in the NFL.
While this may appear to be a low yardage total for Kelce, he recorded less than 62 yards in half of his regular season games.
Gus Edwards Over 43.5 Rushing Yards (-110 at FanDuel)
Soppe: In nine games this season when the spread closed at fewer than five points, Edwards has rushed for at least 48 yards eight times. That’s a strong rate (88.9%) at face value, and it is that much more impressive when you consider that his rate was just 37.5% in all other games (3 of 8).
I’ll admit that the volume concerns are real (two games since Thanksgiving with more than 10 carries), but there could well be enough quality in this spot to overcome the likely lack of quantity.
This season, 35.9% of running back carries against the Chiefs have picked up at least five yards. That’s the eighth-highest rate in the league, a greater mark than perceived run funnels in Cincinnati and Los Angeles (Chargers).
Justice Hill Over 51.5 Total Yards (-115 at ESPN BET)
Rolfe: Since the injury to Keaton Mitchell, we have seen Justice Hill’s role grow. Taking out the strange Week 18 game when the Ravens had nothing to play for, Hill has 189 total yards in the Ravens’ last two competitive games. He also had a further 57 total yards in the Christmas Day game against the San Francisco 49ers.
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The arrival of Dalvin Cook complicates things a little, but Hill has become a somewhat unofficial leader of the backfield. Last week against the Texans, he played 54% of the snaps, having played 62% of the snaps against the Miami Dolphins.
Jahmyr Gibbs Longest Rush Over 14.5 yards (-135 at DraftKings)
Blewis: Jahmyr Gibbs had such a spectacular rookie season that he has people re-evaluating their arguments against drafting running backs in the first round. Against the Buccaneers, he ran for 74 yards on just nine carries, including a 31-yard touchdown.
After a terrific performance last week, Gibbs is well-positioned for another big game in this matchup against the 49ers’ defense. While San Francisco allowed the third-fewest rushing yards during the regular season, this was mostly due to them having such big leads over their opponents, as the underlying metrics don’t support this unit having a stout run defense.
During the regular season, the 49ers’ run defense was 26th in EPA/play and 24th in success rate. Against Green Bay in a very close game, their struggles against the run were on full display, as Aaron Jones ran for 108 yards on just 18 carries, including a 53-yard run.
While Gibbs doesn’t have the same volume as Jones — David Montgomery is the clear lead back in Detroit — the rookie doesn’t need a ton of carries to go over his prop line of just 45.5 rushing yards.
Gibbs is one of the most explosive running backs in the NFL, with his 16 carries of 15+ yards during the regular season trailing only Christian McCaffrey.
I like Gibbs to surpass his rushing total, but my favorite player prop is for his longest rush to go over 14.5 yards — a line that he has hit in 15 of 19 games this season.
Brandon Aiyuk Over 77.5 receiving yards (-110 at ESPN BET)
Rolfe: We saw last week what a number one wide receiver can do against this Lions’ secondary, with Mike Evans putting up 147 yards. Over the course of the regular season, the Lions’ defense allowed an average of 171.17 receiving yards per game to wide receivers.
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With Samuel expected to be limited, we should see plenty of Aiyuk in this game. In three of the final four regular season games, Aiyuk had over 100 receiving yards. He has had a couple of down games now and is primed for a big bounceback against the Lions this week.
Amon-Ra St. Brown Under 85.5 Receiving Yards (-110 at FanDuel)
Soppe: The 49ers are a top-12 defense in passer rating and yards per pass.
Detroit played four games against similarly stingy defenses this season, and while they won three of those contests, their top receiver, Amon-Ra St. Brown, was held in check. In those games, he averaged just 6.4 yards per target and never reached 80 receiving yards (all other games: 9.7 yards per target, 80+ receiving yards in 85.7% of games).
Take this specific matchup a bit further, and your confidence in “The Sun God” will continue to cloud. Since their Week 9 bye, the 49ers are allowing 6.5 yards per target to opposing WR1s (I excluded the Cardinals game due to no WR1 being on their roster and the Week 18 game against primarily reserve Rams) and have held the opponent’s top target under 73 yards in seven of eight games despite that player seeing 24.7% of the targets.
Based on that back-of-the-napkin math, St. Brown needs to clear 13 targets to hit his number, something he can certainly do but not something I deem as likely, especially if you, like me, think San Francisco wins the time of possession battle.
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