The Detroit Lions and San Francisco 49ers have several players who can make an impact in the NFC Championship Game. With the two teams combining for 117 touchdowns from their offenses this season, we expect plenty of action on the scoreboard this week.
With that in mind, who are the top value Lions vs. 49ers player prop bets from our NFL betting experts for the NFC Championship Game?
Detroit Lions vs. San Francisco 49ers Best Touchdown Scorer Bets
David Montgomery (+175 at DraftKings)
Soppe: Due to the emergence of Jahmyr Gibbs and the continued excellence of Amon-Ra St. Brown, we have caught a favorable number on David Montgomery against a 49ers run defense that has shown some cracks of late.
When investing in the anytime touchdown market, I trust role ahead of everything. Talent is great, and I think Montgomery is a talented runner, but it’s his role that I’m betting on more than anything.
Weeks 1-15:
- 23.6% of his carries came in the red zone
- 12.9% of his carries came inside the 10-yard line
- 6.7% of his carries came inside the 5-yard line
Since:
- 23.1% of his carries came in the red zone
- 21.5% of his carries came inside the 10-yard line
- 13.8% of his carries came inside the 5-yard line
Red-zone stats get thrown around all the time, and there’s nothing wrong with them.
However, by honing in on specific distances, you can clearly see that Montgomery’s recent usage is a step up in touchdown equity, even if the red-zone rush rate is similar.
I don’t hate the idea of grabbing him at +1100 for first touchdown or +450 for first Lions touchdown — I have the 49ers winning this game, so if the Lions are going to score on the ground, investing in it coming early on in an even game script makes sense.
Jahmyr Gibbs (+145 at FanDuel)
Blewis: This is the first time this year that Jahmyr Gibbs has shorter odds to score a touchdown than Montgomery, but I’m still going to take him here.
Even with an average of just 10 carries per game during this span, Gibbs has scored a touchdown three weeks in a row dating back to the regular season.
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Simply put, he’s a dynamic player, and Lions OC Ben Johnson is having a harder time keeping him off the field than he did earlier in the season.
Not only does Gibbs have big-play ability to break off a long touchdown run, but he is also being utilized more in the red zone, with two of his three last touchdowns coming inside the 10-yard line. That gives me more confidence in taking his anytime touchdown odds than earlier in the year.
Josh Reynolds (+350 on ESPN BET)
Rolfe: We have seen something of a renaissance for Josh Reynolds in the last few weeks. Across the Lions’ last three games, Reynolds has seen 17 targets for 12 receptions, 151 receiving yards, and a touchdown. Those numbers are not going to blow you away, but compared to the period before, it has been a very productive time.
There has also been a shift in where the Lions have used Reynolds in recent weeks. Across the entire 2023 season, he had just 17 red-zone targets, but seven of those came in the last three weeks. Reynolds was extremely close to a two-touchdown game, and with Sam LaPorta struggling with injury, Reynolds could have a big role again this week.
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