These final weeks of the season are where players’ reputations are really forged, and finding the end zone can be a big part of that. Which players will make a major impact on this week’s AFC Championship Game between the Kansas City Chiefs and Baltimore Ravens?
Our NFL betting experts have examined the touchdown scorer odds and lines to provide their best value bets for the Chiefs vs. Ravens game.
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Baltimore Ravens Best Touchdown Scorer Bets
Mark Andrews (+260 at FanDuel) or Isaiah Likely (+360 at FanDuel)
Soppe: I understand that the idea is to pick a single touchdown scorer, but this is not a traditional two-way market where if one side wins, the other loses.
I’m hedging my bet to a degree by including both tight ends (two separate betting tickets for me, but putting them together pays over +1700), but there’s a world in which both can score, given their success up to this point in the season.
Lamar Jackson, on his way to an MVP award in his first season under Todd Monken, has completed 76.2% of his red-zone passes when targeting TEs and 67.5% when throwing to different positions.
The Chiefs have largely defended the scoring area well this season, though their ranking second in pressure rate this season, in addition to the likelihood of them allocating a spy on Jackson in close, has me buying into a TE duo that is more than capable of making plays with the ball in their hands.
Gus Edwards (+140 at ESPN BET)
Blewis: Gus Edwards didn’t score last week, so it appears we’re getting a slight discount on his touchdown odds.
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In the second half of the season, Edwards scored in all but three games. In 2023, only seven running backs had a higher percentage of their team’s rush attempts inside the 5-yard line than Edwards, and none of those players share a backfield with a dynamic QB like Jackson.
If the Ravens have opportunities near the goal line, I would expect Edwards to get at least one opportunity to get into the end zone.
Nelson Agholor (+650 at ESPN BET)
Rolfe: I 100% agree with Mr. Blewis’ pick on Edwards and will be firmly behind one of the best goal-line backs in the league finding the end zone. However, I also love a longer-shot bet, and at +650, Nelson Agholor stood out.
Agholor has not scored in two of the Ravens’ last four games, of which only three of them were with Jackson under center. In the last four weeks, we have seen Agholor accumulate 15 targets, 12 receptions, and two touchdowns.
Those numbers make this line stand out as a value for me, with the Chiefs defense likely focusing more on Zay Flowers, Andrews, Likely, and Odell Beckham Jr. than Agholor.
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