The Kansas City Chiefs and Baltimore Ravens have a lot of playmakers on their rosters who could make a huge impact on the AFC Championship Game. With both sides having good units on offense and defense, our NFL betting experts examined which players could make a big impact and who could struggle this week.
Let’s take a look at the top Chiefs vs. Ravens player props that our panel identified from a value perspective.
Top Chiefs vs. Ravens Player Prop Bets
Patrick Mahomes Under 243.5 Passing Yards (-110 at FanDuel)
Soppe: If you just want to box score watch, the “over” lines up to be a strong play. Mahomes has cleared this number in nine of 11 underdog spots, but if you dig a little deeper, betting the under comes into focus.
The time of year has impacted Mahomes’ efficiency in these spots. As an underdog:
- Games played before Thanksgiving: 9.3 yards per attempt
- Games played after Thanksgiving: 7.7 yards per attempt (down 17.2%)
Slicing an 11-game sample size down further is obviously risky, so let’s take a look at this matchup in the scope of this season. For 2023, the Ravens rank fifth in time of possession (TOP), and that could serve as a skeleton key.
- Mahomes vs. top-12 TOP offenses: 33.4 attempts per game
- Mahomes vs. all other opponents: 39.0 attempts per game
Only once this season has a quarterback cleared this yardage number against the Ravens when throwing 40 or fewer passes. That instance? Brock Purdy in Week 16, a game in which 26.3% of his passing yards came in his final drive after the game was already in hand with San Francisco trailing by 21 (a game script that isn’t near what we are projecting).
This Chiefs team is positioned to win without a big Mahomes game than in years past, and that could well be the case in this spot.
Patrick Mahomes Under 0.5 Interceptions (+108 at FanDuel)
Soppe: Let’s define a “strong” defense as one that ranks in the top 12 in scoring, passing, yards per attempt, and passing touchdown rate. In five of 11 career games as an underdog, Mahomes has faced five such defenses, and the Ravens will be number six. In those five games, he has been intercepted just once on 159 attempts.
As if that statistic wasn’t enough, we’ve traditionally gotten a slightly more conservative version of Mahomes in the playoffs, as his postseason aDOT is more than 8% lower than his regular-season number.
- Career INT rate on balls thrown 15+ yards: 3.6%
- Career INT rate on balls thrown less than 15 yards: 1.2%
Gus Edwards Over 43.5 Rushing Yards (-110 at FanDuel)
Soppe: In nine games this season when the spread closed at fewer than five points, Edwards has rushed for at least 48 yards eight times. That’s a strong rate (88.9%) at face value, and it is that much more impressive when you consider that his rate was just 37.5% in all other games (3-of-8).
I’ll admit that the volume concerns are real (two games since Thanksgiving with more than 10 carries), but there could well be enough quality in this spot to overcome the likely lack of quantity.
This season, 35.9% of running back carries against the Chiefs have picked up at least five yards. That’s the eighth-highest rate in the league, a greater mark than perceived run funnels in Cincinnati and Los Angeles (Chargers).
Travis Kelce Under 62.5 Receiving Yards (-110 at FanDuel)
Blewis: Travis Kelce had a really efficient game in their win over the Bills last week, with five receptions for 75 yards on just six targets, including two touchdowns.
Against the Bills, the Chiefs took advantage of a depleted linebacker corps for Buffalo, as they had almost nobody left at the position to defend the middle of the field. As a result, Kelce was able to feast.
MORE: NFL Playoff Bracket
But Kelce won’t have that same luxury against a Ravens defense with two All-Pro players at the position, as well as the best safety tandem in the NFL.
While this may appear to be a low yardage total for Kelce, he recorded less than 62 yards in half of his regular-season games.
Rashod Bateman Over 20.5 Receiving Yards (-110 at FanDuel)
Katz: This line initially opened at 24.5 but dropped after news of Mark Andrews’ return. I’m not really sure Andrews affects Rashod Bateman in any way. It’s more likely any targets that go to Andrews come from Isaiah Likely’s share.
Bateman has been more involved recently, playing 65% of the snaps against the Houston Texans and 72% of the snaps in Week 17. Bateman’s snap share last week was significantly higher than Nelson Agholor’s or Odell Beckham Jr’s. He appears to have regained the WR2 role opposite Zay Flowers.
This is such a low number and one that Bateman can surpass on just two receptions.
Justice Hill Over 51.5 Total Yards (-115 at ESPN BET)
Rolfe: Since the injury to Keaton Mitchell, we have seen Justice Hill’s role grow. Taking out the strange Week 18 game when the Ravens had nothing to play for, Hill has 189 total yards in the Ravens’ last two competitive games. He also had a further 57 total yards in the Christmas Day game against the San Francisco 49ers.
The arrival of Dalvin Cook complicates things a little, but Hill has become a somewhat unofficial leader of the backfield. Last week against the Texans, he played 54% of the snaps, having played 62% of the snaps against the Miami Dolphins.
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