As a result of declining efficiency on the ground, Alvin Kamara’s dynasty conversation has shifted toward him being a liability entering 2024, which opens up interesting options in the trading market.
Should fantasy football managers be looking to get out of the New Orleans Saints running back’s business, or might this be the perfect time to pounce for a team positioned to win right away? The New Orleans Saints have largely been quiet this offseason, something that plays in the favor of Kamara, as he is again penciled in as a primary weapon.
Strong points support both angles, so let’s take a deeper look into the veteran’s profile.
Alvin Kamara’s Dynasty Outlook
The age curve works a little differently for backs like Kamara, who have seen well north of 27% of their career touches come as a pass catcher. But there’s no denying that an RB set to turn 29 years old this summer coming off a sub-4.0 yard-per-carry season carries significant risk.
Early in his career, Kamara was a volume pass catcher for the Saints (80+ grabs in each of his first four seasons, showcasing a PPR floor that was challenged by very few), who made his limited work on the ground count in a significant way (5.0 ypc with a touchdown once every 15.6 rush attempts during those four years).
Including tonight's game, Alvin Kamara has been targeted more than 171 times since the 2021 season — 4th most among NFL RBs (via @IE_NFL)#JAXvsNO | #PFN365 pic.twitter.com/R03CAiHzRt
— Pro Football Network (@PFN365) October 20, 2023
In the three seasons since, however, the path to fantasy production has been bumpy, to say the least, and that’s what has some managers running for the hills.
2021-23
- 3.9 yards per carry
- 58.5 carries per rushing score
- 19.5% decline in catches per game
Kamara seems destined to be a part of a committee sooner than later (Jamaal Williams and Kendre Miller are his current competition), which is a concern when it comes to projecting the next few seasons.
The quality of the sidekick very much plays into just how much upside he does/doesn’t have access to, but as long as Derek Carr is on the roster, I expect the floor to be reasonable enough to consider Kamara a lineup lock that is more valuable in leagues that reward for receptions.
When comparing his 2023 season with 2022, you’ll understand why the king of the checkdown is viewed as a value booster for his lead RB:
- Targets per route up 22.5%
- Receptions per game up 51.8%
- aDOT down 93.7%
- Catch rate up 17.8%
The aDOT across the NFL is trending down with defenses not wanting to get burned for big plays, a trend that figures to keep Kamara valuable longer than most at the position. Of course, “valuable” and “elite” are two different things, but the ability to remain a fantasy starter is helpful at a position that sees many go from useful to useless in a few months.
Kamara’s avenue to strong fantasy numbers may not be that of a traditional back, but we are in the number-counting business, and his blend of skills in this specific situation is still valuable in a meaningful way.
Kamara’s Dynasty Ranking
Where does Kamara land in the dynasty RB landscape going into the 2024 offseason? Here are Soppe’s latest dynasty rankings, featuring where Kamara lands in comparison to other top names at the position.
1) Bijan Robinson | ATL
2) Christian McCaffrey | SF
3) Breece Hall | NYJ
4) Jonathan Taylor | IND
5) Jahmyr Gibbs | DET
6) Saquon Barkley | PHI
7) Travis Etienne Jr. | JAX
8) Kyren Williams | LAR
9) James Cook | BUF
10) Kenneth Walker III | SEA
11) De’Von Achane | MIA
12) Isiah Pacheco | KC
13) Alvin Kamara | NO
14) Javonte Williams | DEN
15) Rhamondre Stevenson | NE
16) Josh Jacobs | GB
17) Rachaad White | TB
18) Derrick Henry | BAL
19) Tony Pollard | TEN
20) Zamir White | LV
Should You Trade Kamara in Dynasty?
Are you considering trading Kamara in the dynasty? Our free PFN Trade Analyzer allows you to find the best trade offer to make in seconds.
I’m always willing to move on from a running back who is past their rookie deal, and that’s the case here. Kamara is exactly the type of piece that a team destined to struggle in 2024 can flip to a contender for some help down the road, which is what I would do here.
CONTINUE READING: Dynasty Consensus Rankings
He still holds enough value to matter, especially in PPR formats. Kamara might even hold onto that role for another year or two — making him the perfect asset to move for a rebuilding franchise.
Kamara’s best days are behind him, sure, but a contending team should value his floor more than one looking to restructure their roster, and it’s important to move pieces like that before it’s too late.
As is the case with most players, how Kamara is viewed in the trade market is dependent on where your roster sits from a construction standpoint.
KEEP READING: Dynasty Rookie Rankings 2024
Winning in dynasty is about more than player evaluation; it’s about reading your opponents and constructing deals that can help both parties. Kamara is a situational player for me entering 2024 — avoid it if you’re not in win-now mode, and embrace the known production if you’re a piece or two away from making a true run!
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