Name a statistical category, and the San Francisco 49ers hold the edge over the Detroit Lions. And so if we went solely by the numbers, our Lions vs. 49ers preview would be decidedly one-sided.
The Niners have been the superior team all season. But the postseason is a different beast, and the 49ers’ high-powered offense sputtered in the Divisional Round. And it won’t be the same if Deebo Samuel’s shoulder injury prevents him from playing in Sunday’s home NFC Championship Game.
Purdy was spectacular this season when Samuel was on the field. He looked very ordinary when Samuel was not.
In the two games Samuel missed — both San Francisco losses — the Niners scored a total of 34 points, and Purdy’s passer rating was 87.9.
And yet, the Niners as of Monday afternoon were 6.5-point favorites against Jared Goff and the Lions, who survived one-score affairs with the Rams and Buccaneers to make their first conference title game appearance since 1991.
Detroit Lions vs. San Francisco 49ers Preview
2023 Offensive Stats and Rankings
Lions
- Scoring: 27.1 (5th)
- Yards: 394.8 (3rd)
- Yards per play: 5.9 (3rd)
- Rushing: 135.9 (5th)
- Yards per carry: 4.6 (5th)
- Passing: 258.9 (2nd)
- Yards per pass: 7.3 (4th)
- Interception rate: 2% (12th)
- Sacks per pass attempt: 5.1% (3rd)
- First downs: 22.1 (5th)
- EPA per play: .058 (8th)
- Success rate: 46% (7th)
- Dropback EPA: .111 (7th)
- Rush EPA: -.014 (6th)
49ers
- Scoring: 28.9 (3rd)
- Yards: 398.4 (2nd)
- Yards per play: 6.6 (1st)
- Rushing: 140.5 (3rd)
- Yards per carry: 4.8 (4th)
- Passing: 257.9 (4th)
- Yards per pass: 8.9 (1st)
- Interception rate: 2.4% (20th)
- Sacks per pass attempt: 6.9% (12th)
- First downs: 22.5 (2nd)
- EPA per play: .179 (1st)
- Success rate: 51.6% (1st)
- Dropback EPA: .298 (1st)
- Rush EPA: .034 (1st)
2023 Defensive Stats and Rankings
Lions
- Scoring: 23.2 (23)
- Yards: 336.1 (19th)
- Yards per play: 5.5 (26th)
- Rushing: 88.8 (2nd)
- Yards per carry: 3.7 (3rd)
- Passing: 247.4 (27th)
- Yards per pass: 7.2 (30th)
- Interception rate: 2.7% (12th)
- Sacks per pass attempt: 7% (22nd)
- First downs: 19.9 (22nd)
- EPA per play: -.008 (1st)
- Success rate: 43.6% (18th)
- Dropback EPA: .080 (25th)
- Rush EPA: -.174 (4th)
49ers
- Scoring: 17.5 (3rd)
- Yards: 303.9 (8th)
- Yards per play: 5 (7th)
- Rushing: 89.7 (3rd)
- Yards per carry: 4.1 (14th)
- Passing: 214.2 (14th)
- Yards per pass: 5.9 (5th)
- Interception rate: 3.5% (2nd)
- Sacks per pass attempt: 7.7% (18th)
- First downs: 18.8 (13th)
- EPA per play: -.052 (10th)
- Success rate: 43.1% (15th)
- Dropback EPA: -.057 (6th)
- Rush EPA: -.041 (26th)
Quarterbacks
Jared Goff
- Passing: 4,575 (2nd)
- Yards per pass: 7.6 (9th)
- Touchdowns: 30 (4th)
- Interceptions: 12 (t-7th most)
- QBR: 60.3 (11th)
- Passer rating: 97.9 (9th)
- EPA per play: .127 (11th)
- CPOE: 1.3 (12th)
- Passing: 4,280 (5th)
- Yards per pass: 9.6 (1st)
- Touchdowns: 31 (3rd)
- Interceptions: 10 (t-13th most)
- QBR: 72.8 (1st)
- Passer rating: 113 (1st)
- EPA per play: .338 (1st)
- CPOE: 5.4 (1st)
More Key Stats
Lions
- Best 2023 win: 21-20 at Chiefs (Week 1)
- Worst 2023 loss: 28-13 at Bears (Week 14)
- Point differential: +66
- Strength of schedule: .481
- Strength of victory: .436
- Moneyline: +230
49ers
- Best 2023 win: 42-10 vs. Cowboys (Week 5)
- Worst 2023 loss: 31-17 vs. Bengals (Week 8)
- Point differential: +169
- Strength of schedule: .509
- Strength of victory: .475
- Moneyline: -285
Lions vs. 49ers All-Time History
The Lions and 49ers have been playing each other for nearly three-quarters of a century. The Niners lead the all-time series 39-28-1, but even that doesn’t reflect the true dominance they’ve exhibited.
It’s been a rout for the past four decades. The 49ers have won 18 of the teams’ last 21 meetings, dating back to the 1983 postseason.
MORE: Former Cardinals TE Zach Ertz Joins Lions for Super Bowl Run
Despite the long history, this is just the third postseason matchup between these two franchises, with each winning one of the previous two.
Goff is intimately familiar with the Niners due to his time with the Rams earlier in his career. He’s lost six of his nine games against San Francisco, completing 61.1% of his passes with 17 touchdowns, seven interceptions, a 6.4 yards-per-attempt average, and a passer rating of 89.
This will be Purdy’s first time facing the Lions in his short career.
What They’re Saying
“I think there were times that we were all off at times. What was cool, I thought everyone who had a few plays that stuck out that, either ended a drive or was why we didn’t get a first down. Same thing on defense, even on special teams.
“But everyone who did do that stuff made a huge play at the end, in all three phases to get us back into it. Brock, he made some big plays in this game, missed a couple. But leading us down on that last drive and getting the win, that’s all you can ask for.” — Niners coach Kyle Shanahan following San Francisco’s 24-21 Divisional Round victory over the Packers.
Want to predict the results of the 2023 NFL postseason with our FREE NFL Playoff Predictor? How about looking into in-depth breakdowns of team depth charts or the NFL playoff schedule? Pro Football Network has you covered with all that and more!