Patrick Mahomes vs. Lamar Jackson. The defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs visiting the red-hot Baltimore Ravens — the NFL‘s most complete team.
It’s a dream showdown for the NFL in the AFC Championship Game. But as our Chiefs vs. Ravens preview reveals, the stats and matchups suggest this is Baltimore’s game to lose.
Beyond having the NFL’s likely MVP, the Ravens also have no weaknesses. Plus, they’re playing at home, where they’ve outscored their 10 opponents by 147 points.
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Baltimore Ravens Preview
2023 Offensive Stats and Rankings
Chiefs
- Scoring: 21.8 (15th)
- Yards: 351.3 (9th)
- Yards per play: 5.5 (9th)
- Rushing: 104.9 (19th)
- Yards per carry: 4.3 (13th)
- Passing: 246.4 (6th)
- Yards per pass: 6.6 (16th)
- Interception rate: 2.7% (23rd)
- Sacks per pass attempt: 4.4% (2nd)
- First downs: 20.6 (9th)
- EPA per play: .021 (11th)
- Success rate: 43.8% (12th)
- Dropback EPA: .082 (12th)
- Rush EPA: -.112 (18th)
Ravens
- Scoring: 28.4 (4th)
- Yards: 370.4 (6th)
- Yards per play: 5.9 (4th)
- Rushing: 156.5 (1st)
- Yards per carry: 4.9 (3rd)
- Passing: 213.8 (21st)
- Yards per pass: 7.4 (3rd)
- Interception rate: 1.4% (3rd)
- Sacks per pass attempt: 8.3% (24th)
- First downs: 21.1 (7th)
- EPA per play: .069 (6th)
- Success rate: 47.4% (4th)
- Dropback EPA: .112 (6th)
- Rush EPA: .009 (3rd)
2023 Defensive Stats and Rankings
Chiefs
- Scoring: 17.3 (2nd)
- Yards: 289.8 (2nd)
- Yards per play: 4.7 (5th)
- Rushing: 113.2 (18th)
- Yards per carry: 4.5 (24th)
- Passing: 176.5 (4th)
- Yards per pass: 5.4 (3rd)
- Interception rate: 1.4% (28th)
- Sacks per pass attempt: 10.3% (1st)
- First downs: 17.6 (t-3rd)
- EPA per play: -.076 (6th)
- Success rate: 39.8% (4th)
- Dropback EPA: -.100 (3rd)
- Rush EPA: -.034 (28th)
Ravens
- Scoring: 16.5 (1st)
- Yards: 301.4 (6th)
- Yards per play: 4.6 (3rd)
- Rushing: 109.4 (14th)
- Yards per carry: 4.5 (25th)
- Passing: 191.6 (6th)
- Yards per pass: 5.2 (1st)
- Interception rate: 2.8% (10th)
- Sacks per pass attempt: 9.5% (4th)
- First downs: 18 (6th)
- EPA per play: -.127 (2nd)
- Success rate: 40.8% (2nd)
- Dropback EPA: -.142 (2nd)
- Rush EPA: -.097 (16th)
Quarterback Comparison
Patrick Mahomes
- Passing: 4,183 (6th)
- Yards per pass: 7 (20th)
- Touchdowns: 27 (8th)
- Interceptions: 14 (4th-most)
- QBR: 63 (8th)
- Passer rating: 92.6 (14th)
- EPA per play: .134 (9th)
- CPOE: 2.7 (10th)
Lamar Jackson
- Passing: 3,678 (15th)
- Yards per pass: 8 (4th)
- Touchdowns: 24 (t-11th)
- Interceptions: 7 (t-26h most)
- QBR: 64.7 (4th)
- Passer rating: 102.7 (4th)
- EPA per play: .135 (8th)
- CPOE: 3.5 (8th)
More Key Statistics
Chiefs
- Best 2023 win: 27-24 at Bills (Divisional Round)
- Worst 2023 loss: 20-14 vs. Raiders (Week 16)
- Point differential: +77
- Strength of schedule: .481
- Strength of victory: .428
- Moneyline: +140
Ravens
- Best 2023 win: 38-6 vs. Lions (Week 7)
- Worst 2023 loss: 22-19 vs. Colts (Week 3)
- Point differential: +203
- Strength of schedule: .543
- Strength of victory: .529
- Moneyline: -166
Chiefs vs. Ravens All-Time History
The Chiefs own the all-time series edge 7-5, and five of those wins have come in Baltimore.
These teams last met in Week 2 of the 2021 regular season, a 36-35 thriller won by the Ravens in comeback fashion.
This is just the second postseason meeting between the Chiefs and Ravens. The first was in the 2010 Wild Card round, a 30-7 road Baltimore victory.
Jackson is making his fifth career start against Kansas City. He’s 1-3 in the previous four, with a 56.2% completion rate, four touchdowns, two interceptions, with a 6.2 yards-per-attempt average, and a 78.9 passer rating.
He does have 303 career rushing yards and three touchdowns vs. KC.
Mahomes is 3-1 lifetime against the Ravens. He’s completed 71.8% of his passes with 12 touchdowns, two interceptions, and a lifetime 119.1 rating.
What They’re Saying
“We know we’re going to have a heckuva challenge this next week, but our guys are going to go out there and see what we can do. … There’s no weakness there. It’s going to take our best effort on defense, offense, special teams. They do it all. It’s always a great challenge. That stadium’s going to be rocking. We’re excited for the challenge.” — Patrick Mahomes, on CBS postgame Sunday.
“We were here to prove a point. To show that we can play anywhere.”
– Patrick Mahomes to our Tracy Wolfson following the #Chiefs victory pic.twitter.com/vUj9dKapRA
— TJ (@TAB_TAB_HH) January 22, 2024
Want to predict the results of the 2023 NFL postseason with our FREE NFL Playoff Predictor? How about looking into in-depth breakdowns of team depth charts or the NFL playoff schedule? Pro Football Network has you covered with all that and more!