Today’s two NFL Divisional Round playoff games feature four teams with very explosive offenses. Can C.J. Stroud and Jordan Love each repeat their magic from last week? How will the top playmakers for the Baltimore Ravens and San Francisco 49ers perform coming off their bye weeks?
Our betting experts break it down with their top player prop bets for today’s games.
Best NFL Player Prop Bets for Today’s Playoff Games
C.J. Stroud Under 240.5 Passing Yards (-114 at FanDuel)
Blewis: If you have been following my player prop bets all season long, then you would have figured out by now that I like to back Stroud at home but fade him on the road.
This season, Stroud averaged just 231.7 passing yards in seven road games, and that number dipped to 221.8 in five games outdoors. In those five games, Stroud’s 6.93 yards per attempt were two yards lower than his 8.94 average at home.
Not only has Stroud struggled on the road and outdoors, but he will be facing an elite Ravens defense and secondary that is coming off two extra weeks of rest after they sat in Week 18 and had a bye in the Wild Card Round.
Nico Collins Under 82.5 Receiving Yards (-114 at FanDuel)
Soppe: The Ravens’ defense isn’t one to mess with; it’s really that simple. They were the top-scoring unit in the league this season and the best among playoff teams on a per-play basis. They are a bottom-10 team in both blitz and pressure rate, instead preferring to take their medicine in the short pass game and dare opponents to kill them with 1,000 paper cuts.
This season, Baltimore has allowed opponents to post a 40.3 passer rating on deep passes. That’s not just the lowest mark this season; it’s the third-best over the past nine seasons.
Nico Collins is a bona fide big-play threat, but with Tank Dell and Noah Brown both on IR, the Ravens should be positioned to focus on preventing him from the splash play. In 2023, Collins has seven games with multiple deep receptions and nine without…
- With (7 games): 49 catches for 980 yards and 7 TDs (140 yards/game)
- Without (9 games): 37 catches for 413 yards and 2 TDs (45.9 yards/game)
In those nine games without multiple deep receptions, Collins hasn’t cleared 80 yards once and has been held to 65 or less even times. I love where this Texans team is headed long-term; this is just a difficult matchup for an offense operating at less than full strength.
Gus Edwards Under 50.5 Rushing Yards (-115 at DraftKings)
Katz: It’s always a bit risky taking an under on a running back playing on the team likely to have a positive game script in the fourth quarter. However, the Houston Texans have been a brutal opponent for running backs all season. They allow a league-low 3.3 yards per carry to the position.
When these teams met back in Week 1, which, admittedly, is ancient history at this point, Gus Edwards carried the ball eight times for 32 yards. J.K. Dobbins was healthy that game, too. He had eight carries for 22 yards.
Oh, and Justice Hill was also involved. He also had eight carries but amassed a whopping nine yards. Baltimore won that game by 16 points, leading wire-to-wire.
Even if this week’s game is more of the same, with the Ravens in control throughout, you still can’t run on the Texans.
Zay Flowers Over 48.5 Receiving Yards (-110 at ESPN BET)
Rolfe: It has been nice to see Flowers return to prominence in this offense down the stretch. After some midseason inconsistency, he had not gone over 50 receiving yards in three of his last four games. He has also found the end zone three times in that stretch, demonstrating what a key part of the offense he has become.
MORE: Mark Andrews Injury Update
The Texans’ defense allowed an average of over 190 receiving yards to WRs in the last four weeks of the regular season, and Flowers is the main threat among Ravens WRs. The return of Mark Andrews may make some concerned that targets will dry up for the rest of the offense, but I am not expecting a major role for Andrews this week.
Jordan Love Under 250.5 Passing Yards (-115 at DraftKings)
Soppe: Jordan Love has Cheeseheads across the globe optimistic that the franchise has landed on a third straight franchise quarterback.
That may be true (I still need to be sold, but the early returns are certainly encouraging), though seeing it out west isn’t statistically likely.
Four times this season, a QB reached 270 passing yards against the 49ers. In each of those instances, they kept picking at a scab created by an alpha target earner.
- Week 2 (no Cooper Kupp) – Puka Nacua: 15 catches (38.5% target share)
- Week 7 (no Justin Jefferson) – T.J. Hockenson: 10 catches (27.9% share)
- Week 8 – Ja’Marr Chase: 10 catches (37.5% share)
- Week 13 – AJ Brown: 8 catches (31% share)
We all like the direction of this Love passing game, but there is no denying that this Packers offense, at the moment, lacks an alpha receiver that can take over a game like what we saw in the above instances.
- Average top GB earner, 2023: 23.9% target share
- Average top GB earner, since Week 6 bye: 22.3% target share
Outside of those standout performances, the 49ers cough up just 193.6 yards through the air per game and only 6.0 yards per attempt.
At that per pass production, Love would have to throw at least 42 passes, something he hasn’t done since September (Week 3 vs. Saints).
Jayden Reed Over 41.5 Receiving Yards (-114 at FanDuel)
Blewis: Despite Love throwing for 272 yards and the Packers putting up 41 points of offense, Jayden Reed didn’t record a single catch on three targets. With Love only attempting 21 passes for the game, as they were in a positive game script for most of the second half, the odds of that happening again this week as heavy underdogs are extremely low.
During the regular season, Reed led all Green Bay pass catchers in target share at 26%. Considering I’m expecting the Packers to be in an opposite game script of last week, and Reed’s yardage prop is under his weekly average during the regular season, this is a must-play for me.
Christian McCaffrey Over 4.5 Receptions (+106 at FanDuel)
Soppe: San Francisco is a big favorite in this spot, and part of that is how their passing game matches up with the Packers. For the season, Green Bay creates pressure at the sixth highest rate, a defensive style that a quick-striking San Francisco pass game could dismantle in short order.
But wait, there’s more. The Packers rank 25th in opponent completion percentage when pressured and 24th in opponent aDOT (average depth of target) in those pressured spots. Those trends point in the direction of the Niners’ All-World RB.
Catch rate when Brock Purdy is pressured:
- Christian McCaffrey: 68.8%
- Brandon Aiyuk: 63.3%
- George Kittle: 57.7%
- Deebo Samuel: 52.0%
Targets per route when Purdy is pressured:
- Christian McCaffrey: 22.9%
- Brandon Aiyuk: 19.6%
- Deebo Samuel: 19.0%
- George Kittle: 16.0%
It’s rarely a bad idea to look at CMC with optimism and this specific matchup should be viewed no differently!
Brandon Aiyuk Over 69.5 Receiving Yards (-110 at ESPN BET)
Rolfe: This line immediately stood out to me when talking about a WR that had over 100 receiving yards in three of the final four games that mattered for the 49ers this season. Brandon Aiyuk did play in the final game of the season, but that can hardly be held against him, given the lack of talent surrounding him.
Aiyuk has proven himself to be a crucial part of this offense, topping 100 yards in seven of his 16 games and going over 70 yards in eight of them.
MORE: Chase Young Makes Bold Claim About Brock Purdy
The Packers’ defense allowed an average of 171.25 yards per game to WRs in the final four weeks of the season, so I expect Aiyuk to breeze past the 70-yard mark.
Given he also got to six receptions in three of those four games that matter, over 5.5 receptions at +165 is also something I may well jump on ahead of kickoff.
Brandon Aiyuk To Lead the Weekend in Receiving Yards (+950 at DraftKings)
Katz: Anyone can pop off for a huge reception, leading to him finishing with the most receiving yards in the Divisional Round. But realistically, one of the five favorites should probably win it.
Aiyuk is listed behind the likes of Amon-Ra St. Brown, Collins, Rashee Rice, and Mike Evans. Is Aiyuk likely to lead the weekend receiving? Of course not. But should he be priced this far behind Collins? I don’t think so.
Aiyuk is the 49ers WR1. Their game against the Packers has the highest total of the slate. He topped 100 yards receiving in seven games this season. I think there’s good value on Aiyuk here.
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