This playoff matchup between the Houston Texans and Baltimore Ravens could very well be decided by QB play, given the strengths of these defenses and the standout season each of these teams has seen under center.
How do we leverage that into a Texans-Ravens same game parlay ticket that pays out over +400? I’m glad you asked.
Texans vs. Ravens Odds
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- Spread
Ravens -9.5 - Moneyline
Texans +330, Ravens -425 - Total
43.5
Texans vs. Ravens Same Game Parlay
We here at Soppe HQ like to encourage responsible gaming, and in that vein, I’ll always offer you a trivia question off the top of these articles. Pose this question to a buddy you are watching the game with: answer correctly, and you pay for the SGP; misfire, and they are on the hook.
Trivia Question: The Texans are the only team since 2000 to score 30+ points in multiple games with a rookie QB. Stroud did it easily last week. Who was the other Texans rookie signal-caller to pull it off?
Ravens QB Lamar Jackson will likely win the MVP, and I’ll get to him in a minute, but this defense has been just as responsible for the Ravens earning the AFC’s top seed.
They are the best per-play unit still standing and the top-scoring defense among all teams up to this point. They rarely blitz, and that allows them to allow the lowest opponent passer rating on deep passes (40.3, the third-lowest single-season rate over the past nine years).
Baltimore isn’t vulnerable in most spots, and downfield surely isn’t a spot to test them. Nico Collins is the last man standing when it comes to WRs in Houston — Tank Dell and Noah Brown are both on IR.
While he is a bona fide playmaker down the field — WR Tyreek Hill is the only player with more 50-yard catches and 50-yard touchdowns than him this season — the attention from a defense that already excels at preventing those plays figures to be prohibitive, to say the least.
Collins’ splits this season when having/not having multiple deep receptions (15-plus air yards):
- With (7 games): 49 catches for 980 yards and 7 TDs (140 yards/game)
- Without (9 games): 37 catches for 413 yards and 2 TDs (45.9 yards/game)
Betting against Houston QB C.J. Stroud’s magic may feel dangerous, but it’s more enticing than picking on a rested Baltimore defense at home. When the Ravens have the ball, they figure to feature Jackson, much like they have all season long.
While the Texans’ defense has certainly shown growth this season, we can agree that they aren’t the Browns, right?
Ranks for 2023, Browns/Texans:
- Yards per play: 2nd/15th
- First downs allowed: 1st/19th
- Interception rate: 3rd/16th
In six of Jackson’s past seven games with a projected total of under 45 points that have not been played against the elite Cleveland Browns’ defense, he has completed over 20 passes. Those passes aren’t always flashy (10th in number of completions to WR/TE at or behind the line of scrimmage, 17th on all other passes), but they count all the same.
MORE: NFL Playoff Bracket
That short passing game could supplement the ground game in this spot, with Houston being the second-stingiest against the run (3.5 YPC) this season.
Sportsbooks have universally settled on a 13-14 carry projection for Gus Edwards this week — a number that has been reasonably consistent for the past three months.
For his career, Edwards averages 49.2 rushing yards per game when he gets at least 10 carries and averages no more than 4.5 YPC, a reasonable projection for this weekend, given his lead role against a strong defense.
He has been held under 50 rushing yards in five of his past seven such games, a trend I like to continue, given the underlying numbers for both him and this Texans’ stout front.
- Edwards: Yards per carry after contact 18.4% below his career norm
- Texans: Fewest yards per carry allowed before contact
- Texans: Third-fewest yards per carry allowed after contact to RBs
RB Justice Hill is a threat to eat into Edwards’ carry count to a degree, but if they elect to favor the short pass game over a traditional rushing attack, it’s going to be Hill (28 receptions this season) on the field instead of Edwards (13 targets).
- Trivia Answer: T.J. Yates’ Texans scored 31 points against the Bengals in the Wild Card Round of the 2011 playoffs — RB Arian Foster scored twice and totaled 182 yards from scrimmage
- Texans vs. Ravens Same Game Parlay: Nico Collins under 80.5 receiving yards, Lamar Jackson over 18.5 completions, and Gus Edwards under 50.5 rushing yards
- Odds: +440 (at DraftKings)
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