There are many different types of playoff fantasy football contests out there, but one thing is common across all of them — you want to score as many points as possible. Here are some start and sit options that can help you do just that for the Divisional Round of the NFL playoffs.
Fantasy Football Start ‘Em Picks for the NFL Playoffs
Baker Mayfield, QB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (at DET)
I completely understand if you want to go with an elite option like Buffalo Bills QB Josh Allen or Baltimore Ravens QB Lamar Jackson. Consider this more for the types of contests where you’re trying to save the top quarterbacks for the next two rounds.
Baker Mayfield just threw for 337 yards and three touchdowns in a wire-to-wire positive game script against the Philadelphia Eagles. He legitimately played well, as the Tampa Bay Buccaneers prioritized throwing the ball against a pass-funnel defense. Well, up next is another pass-funnel defense.
The Detroit Lions allowed the fewest fantasy points per game to running backs this season but the fifth-most to opposing quarterbacks. Last week, the Los Angeles Rams went extremely pass-heavy, throwing the ball 36 times against just 16 runs. Expect a similar game plan from the Bucs this week.
Isiah Pacheco, RB, Kansas City Chiefs (at BUF)
This is a rough spot for running backs. Of the remaining teams in the playoffs, seven of them rank in the bottom half in fantasy points per game allowed to running backs. The worst run defense is the Green Bay Packers, but you don’t need me to tell you to start San Francisco 49ers RB Christian McCaffrey.
So, let’s go with Kansas City Chiefs RB Isiah Pacheco. The Buffalo Bills allowed the 17th-most fantasy points per game to running backs throughout the 2023 NFL regular season. Pacheco has been running well, and he always has a solid chance to punch in a short touchdown.
Mike Evans, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Given that I like Mayfield, it should come as no surprise that I also like his WR1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers WR Mike Evans only caught three passes for 48 yards against the Philadelphia Eagles, but it should’ve been a massive game, as he dropped a very long would-be, easy touchdown.
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The Lions allow the third-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers. As I alluded to already, I expect a pass-heavy game plan, resulting in more targets for Evans. Plus, the Bucs are going to experience a neutral to negative game script this week, as they are playing a much tougher opponent on the road.
Isaiah Likely, TE, Baltimore Ravens (vs. HOU)
Not Travis Kelce? No, not Travis Kelce. Ravens TE Isaiah Likely has been the better fantasy tight end since taking over for Mark Andrews. While the latter has returned to practice, he’s not quite returning to games just yet.
Likely gets a Houston Texans defense that allows 14.0 fantasy points per game to tight ends — the fourth-most in the league. He’s Jackson’s second-favorite target behind WR Zay Flowers against a defense that is worse against the pass than the run.
Fantasy Football Sit ‘Em Picks for the NFL Playoffs
C.J. Stroud, QB, Houston Texans
I don’t want to ever fade Texans QB C.J. Stroud, but when there are only eight options to choose from, someone is going to be the worst. Somehow, that’s Stroud.
Of the remaining teams in the playoffs, the Baltimore Ravens have been the best against the pass. During the season, they allowed 13.4 fantasy points per game to quarterbacks — the third-fewest in the league.
Stroud is talented enough to overcome anything. He may very well be an every-week matchup-proof QB1 next season, but among the limited options for the Divisional Round, he’s the guy I’m putting on the bench.
David Montgomery, RB, Detroit Lions (vs. TB)
The Lions’ usage of their running backs has become a bit clearer recently. RB David Montgomery always starts and plays more on the first drive. As the game presses on, we see an increase in RB Jahmyr Gibbs. Then, in the fourth quarter, if the Lions are salting away a lead, it’s Montgomery. If not, it’s Gibbs.
Last week, the Lions used Montgomery more. He ran the ball 14 times for 57 yards and a touchdown while adding one catch for 11 yards. Even with the score, that’s not all that impressive.
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I can’t say I’m overly excited about Montgomery’s prospects against a Bucs pass-funnel defense that limited running backs to the third-fewest fantasy points per game this season. If Montgomery doesn’t find the end zone, he’s not getting to double-digit fantasy points. I project the Lions’ scores to be all through the air this week.
Stefon Diggs, WR, Buffalo Bills (vs. KC)
I debated whether it was low-hanging fruit to even include Stefon Diggs as a sit. Obviously, you’re sitting Diggs. We’ve seen this for over two months now. It’s been quite some time since Diggs was the elite receiver he’s been for the better part of the past decade.
At this point, the veteran WR is a glorified extension of the run game. The only instances where he gets the ball are designed screens or curls. Everything he runs is underneath and close to the line of scrimmage. His downfield ability is completely gone. I’m not quite sure how or why this happened, but we can’t rely on a player who has topped 52 receiving yards just twice in his past nine games.
The Kansas City Chiefs have an elite shutdown corner in L’Jarius Sneed. He’s a big part of why they allowed the third-fewest fantasy points per game to wide receivers this season. This version of Diggs against one of the best corners in the league is a recipe for yet another unimpressive 6/50-type line.
Dalton Schultz, TE, Houston Texans (at BAL)
While the Texans struggle against the tight end, the Ravens do not. They surrendered just 10.6 fantasy points per game to the position — the ninth-fewest in the league.
Last week, Dalton Schultz did find the end zone on a nice 36-yard touchdown grab. It was his only catch of the game on a whopping two targets.
When these teams met back in Week 1 — which, to be fair, was a lifetime ago — Schultz caught two passes for four yards. He will be better than that this week, but a middling four-30-type outing seems most likely.