The Houston Texans emerged victorious from Wild Card Weekend with their win over the Cleveland Browns yesterday, but already, their eyes will be firmly fixed on the Divisional Round. As the No. 4 seed in the AFC, Houston has some clarity on their potential opponents and scenarios for next weekend but will need to wait until Monday to know for certain.
With the assistance of the free PFN NFL Playoff Predictor, let’s examine the potential scenarios that could play out in the AFC and which opponents the Texans might face next week.
What Are the Houston Texans’ Playoff Scenarios and Potential Opponents in the Divisional Round?
The Texans claimed the first victory of Wild Card Weekend, and entering Sunday, they know who their two potential opponents could be. However, they’ll have to wait for the result between the Buffalo Bills and Pittsburgh Steelers to find out for sure whether it will be a trip to the Baltimore Ravens or Kansas City Chiefs next week.
The basics of the scenarios for the Texans are this: If the Bills win on Monday afternoon, the Texans will travel to Baltimore to face the No. 1-seeded Ravens. Yet, if the Steelers win, the Texans will head to Kansas City for a meeting with the No. 3-seeded Chiefs.
With the way the NFL playoff bracket is structured, the lowest remaining seed faces the highest remaining seed in the Divisional Round. Therefore, if the Steelers win, they would be the lowest-ranked team as the No. 7 seed and face the Ravens. If the No. 2-seeded Bills win, Houston would be the lowest-ranked team remaining.
Houston had an outside chance of hosting a game on Wild Card Weekend, but that was ended when Kansas City defeated the Miami Dolphins on Saturday night. The Texans are now guaranteed to be at best the second-lowest remaining seed in the AFC after the Wild Card round.
If Buffalo wins on Monday, Houston will also be assured of a road trip if they were to make the AFC Championship Game.
Publicly, the Texans will tell you they do not care who they face, but privately, they would probably prefer to go up against the Chiefs. Prior to last night, Kansas City had averaged fewer than 20 points per game this season against teams that made the playoffs. In contrast, Baltimore has a +114 point differential when facing teams that made the playoffs this year.
MORE: C.J. Stroud Sets Rookie Record in Texans’ Playoff Rout of Browns
The Texans also have a terrible record historically against the Ravens, having won just two of their previous 13 meetings. Houston has not prevailed against Baltimore since a 25-13 victory in 2014. The Texans have gone 0-4 and have been outscored 122-48 in the four meetings against the Ravens since then.
The last meeting between the two sides was back in Week 1 this season. In the game in Baltimore, the Ravens came out on top 25-9 after scoring 15 unanswered points to open the second half.
However, the Texans are a very different team now than they were back in Week 1. Rookie QB C.J. Stroud has played superbly, and rookie head coach DeMeco Ryans has made a strong name for himself.
Historically, the Texans have fared better against the Chiefs than the Ravens. Houston is 5-9 against the Chiefs but has never beaten Kansas City in the postseason. Their last meeting in the NFL postseason was in January 2020, when the Chiefs won 51-31.
In that game, the Texans opened up a 24-0 lead early in the first quarter, but the Chiefs roared back with 41 unanswered points to win emphatically. Fortunately for the Texans, not many players or coaches remain from that loss. Neither Ryans nor Stroud were in the organization the last time the Texans lost to the Chiefs in December 2022.
Houston may also hope that Pittsburgh prevails because it keeps their chances alive of hosting the AFC Championship Game. If Houston were to beat Kansas City and Pittsburgh defeats Baltimore, the Texans would host the Steelers for a chance to go to the Super Bowl.
Want to predict the results of the 2023 NFL postseason with our FREE NFL Playoff Predictor? How about looking into in-depth breakdowns of team depth charts or the NFL playoff schedule? Pro Football Network has you covered with all that and more!
