The Dallas Cowboys are back home at AT&T Stadium to take on the Green Bay Packers in the Wild Card Round for the 2023 NFL playoffs.
Despite the odds being stacked against both teams to get to this point in the postseason, it is all on the line come Sunday.
Dallas Cowboys vs. Green Bay Packers Game Preview
The Cowboys ended the regular season with a 12-5 record, taking the NFC East’s top spot.
They still have the longest-running home win streak in the NFL, so securing a home-field advantage was vital to kick-start the postseason.
On the offensive side of the ball, Dak Prescott will need to take total command of the offense as he has throughout the regular season.
Ball distribution in this game will be vital to utilize Prescott’s weapons.
CeeDee Lamb is coming out of the regular season with the second-most receiving yards with 1,749.
Lamb and Prescott’s chemistry has been undeniable all season, and they will need to lean heavily on that once again come Sunday.
If Lamb gets contained in the zone coverage by the Packers, Prescott can look to Brandin Cooks or Jake Ferguson to be passing treats.
Tony Pollard has found his stride within the last couple of weeks. Using the running backs in this game will be vital as the passing game can open up the run for the Mike McCarthy-ran offense.
As for the Cowboys’ defense, the run defense has been a topic of conversation multiple times this season, contributing to some of the team’s losses.
Johnathan Hankins’ return to the trenches will be vital to containing the run with Aaron Jones.
The linebackers will need to pressure Jordan Love throughout the game rather than give him the time to make deep and fearless passes.
Love’s precision when passing the ball has been a strong suit, so coverage from the Cowboys’ secondary will be critical.
The Packers have struggled to score in the red zone this season, so if the Cowboys’ defense can need to keep them behind the sticks and not allow them to drive deep down the field.
Cowboys-Packers Stats From Inside Edge
- The Cowboys have run successful plays on 51.1% of pass attempts this season — third best in the NFL.
- The Packers have allowed successful plays on 49.1% of pass attempts this season — second worst in the NFL.
Analysis: Prescott knows how to take command of the offense, especially with McCarthy’s play-calling this season. The quarterback’s cadence has been a game-changer this season, which has kept the offense on the same page and communicating. His faith and trust in the receivers, tight ends, and running backs is evident.
Establishing the pass shouldn’t be an issue for the Cowboys in this game, but all eyes continue to be on the rushing attack that has struggled this season.
- The Packers had a third-down conversion rate of 33.3% on 3rd-and-10+ YTG in the last four weeks of the regular season — tied fourth best in the NFL.
- The Cowboys’ defense allowed a third-down conversion rate of 44.4% on 3rd-and-10+ YTG in the last four weeks of the regular season — second worst in the NFL.
Analysis: Jordan Love is a young but fearless quarterback when it comes to passing in tight windows. In this game, getting Love behind the sticks won’t be enough. The Cowboys’ defense will need to generate turnovers, even in the form of forced fumbles or pass deflections.
- The Cowboys went three and out on 12.8% of their drives in the last four weeks of the regular season — second best in the NFL.
- The Packers forced three-and-outs on 11.1% of opponent drives in the last four weeks of the regular season — second worst in the NFL.
Analysis: The Cowboys’ offense has effectively driven down the field even before the last four weeks of the season. However, the issues come in the red zone when the space is more compact.
MORE: Dallas Cowboys Depth Chart
The team does have Brandon Aubrey to rely on if needed, but it will be in their best interest to score touchdowns and extend drives as much as possible in this game.
- Packers RBs averaged 2.7 yards after contact per carry in the last four weeks of the regular season — fourth best in the NFL.
- The Cowboys allowed 2.5 yards after contact per carry in the last four weeks of the regular season — tied second worst in the NFL.
Analysis: One of the points of emphasis for the Cowboys’ defense this season has been tackling. Dan Quinn has pointed out that when explosive plays have happened this season, it was due to the Cowboys’ lack of sure tackling.
To avoid yards after contact from the Packers, the team must diagnose plays up front and ensure their tackling stays consistent throughout all four quarters.
- The Cowboys have been successful on 46.4% of plays they have run this season — tied fourth best in the NFL.
- The Packers have allowed their opponents to be successful on 44.3% of plays this season — fifth worst in the NFL.
Analysis: McCarthy deserves the credit for reviving the Cowboys’ offense this season. His play-calling has allowed the players to tap into the play-calling purpose to understand why those plays are called and what their roles are within them.
Prescott and McCarthy have worked together this season to create a connection that has translated well to the field for the play-caller and quarterback. The only persistent issue is not finding a fair ball distribution between the pass and run games.
However, if it’s not broken, don’t fix it. The Cowboys have changed their identity to be a pass-heavy team compared to prioritizing the run like in the past.
If the Cowboys want success in this game, they will need to be aggressive and rely on what has worked for them all season: utilizing Lamb constantly throughout all four quarters of the game.
Want to predict the results of the 2023 NFL postseason with our FREE NFL Playoff Predictor? How about looking into in-depth breakdowns of team depth charts or the NFL playoff schedule? Pro Football Network has you covered with all that and more!