Jaxon Smith-Njigba’s Dynasty Value | Fantasy Outlook, Ranking, and More

Seattle Seahawks WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba didn’t have the rookie season many were hoping for. However, it wasn’t all bad. He showed enough promise to give fantasy football managers hope that a big-time leap is coming. Where does his dynasty value stand heading into the 2024 offseason?

Jaxon Smith-Njigba’s Dynasty Outlook

Expectations are always going to be high for first-round wide receivers. When a player is the first one taken in the NFL Draft, they are even higher.

Smith-Njigba’s rookie situation was unique. It’s rare to see a first-round wide receiver go to a team that doesn’t have a spot for him to start.

JSN was always going to have a hard time earning targets while competing with WRs DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. Metcalf is still firmly in his prime and deserves WR1 attention. Lockett is past his prime but isn’t quite done yet. He has a skill set that should continue to age gracefully, allowing him to remain effective for another couple of years.

Perhaps it should be seen as an indictment on JSN that he couldn’t usurp Lockett. However, Lockett has been undervalued pretty much his entire career. Unless Lockett suddenly played awful football, the rookie was always going to have trouble.

Smith-Njigba primarily operated out of the slot. He ran 64.3% of his routes from that spot. That is not where Metcalf or Lockett operates. As a result, there was a world where all three thrived together. Unfortunately, the combination of the collapse of the Seahawks’ offense line and Geno Smith’s diminished quality of play made that impossible.

It was always going to be asking a lot for Smith to support three top-36 fantasy receivers. If one was going to get left out, it was always going to be the rookie.

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Had Smith-Njigba failed to reach 500 receiving yards, I’d be writing him off. With 63 catches for 628 yards, he did enough to give himself a chance to excel in the future.

With that said, JSN still lagged behind many of his fellow rookie receivers. While it’s important to reach the 500-yard threshold, the degree to which a rookie exceeds it correlates to how good that player ends up being.

Smith-Njigba commanded just a 17% target share as a rookie. We’d expect more from the first wide receiver drafted. His 8.8 fantasy points per game made him the WR8 among rookies. That’s not the best.

Another concern fantasy managers should have is how the Seahawks chose to use Smith-Njigba. For much of the season, he was almost exclusively seeing screens and designed short-target plays.

It was as if the team didn’t trust him to run a route further than seven yards downfield. Smith-Njigba’s 6.1 aDOT (average depth of target) was outside the top 90 at wide receiver.

Monitor the status of Lockett’s future with the team going into this offseason, which would drastically alter the confidence level for JSN moving forward. If Lockett is back with the team in 2024, Smith-Njigba could experience a drastic slide down the dynasty rankings.

Smith-Njigba’s Dynasty Ranking

Where does Smith-Njigba land in the dynasty WR landscape going into the 2024 offseason? Here are Katz’s latest rankings, featuring where Smith-Njigba lands in comparison to other top names at the position.

1) Justin Jefferson | MIN
2) Ja’Marr Chase | CIN
3) CeeDee Lamb | DAL
4) Amon-Ra St. Brown | DET
5) Puka Nacua | LAR
6) Garrett Wilson | NYJ
7) Tyreek Hill | MIA
8) A.J. Brown | PHI
9) Chris Olave | NO
10) Jaylen Waddle | MIA
11) Brandon Aiyuk | SF
12) DK Metcalf | SEA
13) Michael Pittman Jr. | IND
14) DeVonta Smith | PHI
15) Drake London | ATL
16) Jordan Addison | MIN
17) DJ Moore | CHI
18) Jaxon Smith-Njigba | SEA
19) Tank Dell | HOU
20) Nico Collins | HOU
21) Rashee Rice | KC
22) Tee Higgins | CIN
23) Zay Flowers | BAL
24) Deebo Samuel | SF

Should You Trade Smith-Njigba in Dynasty?

Are you considering trading Smith-Njigba? Our free PFN Trade Analyzer allows you to find the best trade offer to make in seconds.

If we are using a purely metrics-based analysis, then Smith-Njigba would be a strong sell recommendation for dynasty managers. His rookie season wasn’t up to par, and his value is undoubtedly lower now than where it was right after the Seahawks drafted him. Fortunately, we have more to go on than just metrics.

When the Seahawks did choose to feature their rookie more heavily, he looked pretty good to my eyes. Despite being a “slot guy,” Smith-Njigba proved capable of making downfield plays, and he displayed quality ball skills for a player of his size.

We also have reason to believe in a new offensive philosophy this season. For the first time in over a decade, the Seahawks’ head coach is not Pete Carroll. First-year head coach Mike MacDonald heads over from the Baltimore Ravens. With him comes an entirely new coaching staff. In this instance, I view the uncertainty of change as a positive.

I’m expecting JSN to improve in his sophomore season. There was no reason to expect him to overtake Lockett last year. This year, I fully anticipate it happening. To put it bluntly, it has to happen. If a 22-year-old Smith-Njigba can’t overtake a 32-year-old Lockett for a second straight year, it will become an indictment on the young man’s ability.

Fantasy managers are at an early crossroads when it comes to Smith-Njigba. He still has the clout that comes with first-round draft capital. You can probably recoup 80-90% of his value if you trade him now. One more disappointing year, though, and his dynasty value will plummet. If you don’t trade him now, and he doesn’t ascend, you won’t be able to trade him at this time next year.

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This comes down to what you think of the receiver. Make a call. For me, he did enough as a rookie for me to believe the talent is there. I just think he fell into a tough situation behind two really good veteran receivers. Given that his value hasn’t jumped after his rookie season, I’m looking to buy.